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The 2023 season has been the year of the rookie starting pitcher. Some have been summoned from the minors, performed well, and stuck around, while others have burned bright only to fizzle out and be relegated back to their triple-A affiliates. With half of a season and a full offseason ahead, which rookie arms should we expect to perform well the rest of this season and target in 2024 fantasy baseball drafts?
Which young guns will stick in their respective rotations as full-time starters? For those sent down, who will bounce back to be major contributors?
Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) analyzes this group of rookie arms and the various factors that influence their potential to give readers an advantage going for the rest of this season and into the 2024 fantasy baseball draft.
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The "No Doubt About It" Guys
Eury Perez – Miami Marlins
Perez has given up just seven earned runs in 47 innings pitcher this year outside of this week’s blowup, which admittedly is a concern and something to follow. Despite that recent start, he and Andrew Abbott are a coin-flip for best 2023 rookie pitcher, with Perez holding a slight edge in K% (28.0) and FIP (3.60), even after his recent outing.
His 8.9% Barrel% and 30.9% GB% reveal a hard-throwing, strikeout-first pitcher who induces soft contact when batters are (rarely) able to catch up. Keep Perez near the top of your SP draft board in 2024.
Andrew Abbott – Cincinnati Reds
In a small sample size, Andrew Abbott has demonstrated consistent excellence through five starts in 2023. His .186 BABIP and 3.78 FIP suggest just slightly more potential regression than Perez, however, Abbott has consistently been able to rely on the similar release appearance of his 93mph and 86mph changeup to induce a steady 26.1 K% so far in 2023.
With the Reds unlikely to make any major signings in free agency, Abbott can be targeted in the upper middle rounds of the 2024 draft for consistent innings, strikeouts, and ratio stability.
Hunter Brown – Houston Astros
After his cup of coffee in 2022, Hunter Brown is deservedly here to stay in 2023. He will give managers wins while pitching for a strong Astros club, strikeouts with a 27.5 K% this year, and ratio support with a 3.43 FIP so far. He may not flash that “dominance” of some of the others above him, but his consistency with run support makes him a great target as an SP2 or SP3 in 2024.
Bobby Miller – Los Angeles Dodgers
A towering 6’5” presence bringing a 99mph sinker, Bobby Miller checks all the boxes and seems most likely of the Dodgers' carousel of rookie starters to stick in the rotation in 2023 and beyond. He has a 21.7 K% through seven starts in 2023 with a 3.39 FIP, all backed by one of the best lineups – and front offices – in the MLB. Barring one of the Dodgers’ blockbuster trades, Miller looks like a sure bet to continue his meteoric rise in 2024 and can be targeted as an SP2/3.
Kodai Senga – New York Mets
Senga defines “known commodity” better than any pitcher on this list. His success in Japan allowed him to springboard into the MLB as a full-time starter. Senga has shown flashes of brilliance when his forkball is dancing, but when that pitch is lackluster so is his production, striking out four or fewer hitters in three starts in 2023. However, his floor is relatively high, he generally has run support, and he has a ceiling that can be a significant contribution to a well-rounded staff. Senga can be safely targeted as an SP3 in the upper middle rounds.
Emmet Sheehan - Los Angeles Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, and Walker Buehler are surefire rotation members for the Dodgers in 2024. The last couple of spots should be monitored closely in the offseason to see if Bobby Miller, Sheehan, or both can start 2024 in the rotation. If so, Sheehan has flashed brilliance in his short time in the MLB, particularly with his changeup showing a 36.4 Whiff% and 46.2 PutAway%. That pitch is nasty and compliments his 96mph fastball well. If Sheehan makes it into the rotation, draft him as an SP2/3 with confidence.
The "Mixed Results but Still Trending Up" Guys
Logan Allen – Cleveland Guardians
With so much opportunity to go around, the Guardians are well-represented on this list. Most managers should spend a middle-round pick on at least one of these guys, and Allen is certainly worth that price. His 11.8 SwStr% coupled with a 44.3 GB% suggests above-average location and strikeout ability. Despite his recent demotion, Allen is ripe for a full-time opportunity in Cleveland’s rotation in 2024 and can be drafted with confidence.
Gavin Williams – Cleveland Guardians
With only a few starts under his belt, Gavin Williams’ ranking is one of the most volatile on this list. However, as a first-round pick in the 2021 draft after a stellar college career, Williams has impressed during his quick ascension through the minor leagues. The strikeouts will come with a 96mph fastball and a 6’6” frame. The sky is the limit if he can keep his control even in an average range and the Guardians provide him with a full-time opportunity.
Tanner Bibee – Cleveland Guardians
Bibee was one of the earlier call-ups on this list in 2023 and helped lead the charge of “the year of the rookie SP”. Bibee has demonstrated some inconsistency, punctuated by a six-run blowup against San Diego, but his 7.1 Barrel% and 29.1 Hard% across 65.0 IP suggest an intelligent pitcher who can locate away from hard contact. The Cleveland rotation is a bit of a full house, so managers will need to follow Bibee and his teammate Gavin Williams in the offseason, but whoever sticks in the rotation can and should be targeted in the middle rounds of 2024.
Mason Miller – Oakland Athletics
Mason Miller brings a 98mph dominant fastball coupled with a lethal slider that had a 46.2 Whiff% across his 21.1 innings pitched in 2023 before the injury. His 25.9 K%, 3.08 FIP, and 10.70 SwStr% all suggest the potential for dominance. He has begun throwing after his recent UCL sprain, and he is on track for a return to the mound later this year.
Miller is only limited by pitching for the Athletics, particularly in the wins category, but those in points leagues and need of strikeouts should be targeting Miller in the upper middle rounds in 2024.
Taj Bradley – Tampa Bay Rays
Is there something in the water in Tampa Bay? They seemingly turn good into great and great into fantastic with their pitchers year in and year out. Bradley has been able to capture some of this success, but unfortunately, punctuated by some significant inconsistency. His strikeout ability raises his floor, with his 32.2 K% being second only on this list to Bryan Woo. His 3.70 FIP suggests his ratios should improve. Backed by a winning Rays club with great coaching, Bradley may make even more of a leap in 2024 and can safely be targeted as an SP3/4. Keep an eye on the hype, he may go even earlier.
Bryce Miller – Seattle Mariners
It has been a roller coaster ride with Miller. After allowing only four earned runs in five starts in May, he surrendered 7+ runs to the Yankees and Rangers in consecutive starts. Miller had leveled out in his last few starts before developing a blister, but he has been lacking the ability to miss bats throughout. His 26.4 Whiff% on his fastball (the highest of his pitches) and his 10.8 SwStr% are in the middle of the pack. Backed by a solid Mariners team, Miller can be cautiously targeted as an SP3/4 in 2024.
J.P. France – Houston Astros
France has yet to capture the strikeout numbers he showed in the minors with a lowly 17.7 K% through 60.1 IP in the majors in 2023. However, he is showing great control with an 8.0 BB% backed by great run support. The Astros have three core starters on the injured list, so France’s role when they return is something to keep an eye on, but if he can stick in a rotation (Astros or otherwise), he can be a sneaky middle-round addition to any manager’s staff.
Bryan Woo – Seattle Mariners
The scoring format should impact how you rank this (and any) list. Bryan Woo can and will produce strikeouts, which generally leads to a solid floor and an overall increase in value in points leagues. The question here, playing into his teammate above, is opportunity. With Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales both on the shelf, Woo has seen the opportunity, but both are under contract through at least 2024 and Miller seems to be the slight preference so far to stick in the rotation. If that appears to change during the offseason, Woo and his 33.3 K% would make a solid SP3 with a full-time spot in the Mariners rotation.
Grayson Rodriguez – Baltimore Orioles
Gambling is fun, but only when you win. As it stands now, rostering Grayson Rodriguez is somewhere between placing your bet on black versus a single number on the roulette table. With a return to the majors likely, his performance in the rest of 2023 should guide managers in 2024. The upside is a first-round talent and a 26.5 K% in 45.1 IP in the MLB. The downside is a 7.35 ERA with a disheartening 5.92 FIP. Points league managers can feel a bit better about his floor, but this is a dice roll.
The Other Guys: Waiver Wire Fodder and Late-Round Fliers
Luis L. Ortiz – Pittsburgh Pirates
The opportunity and potential are worth a middle to late-round draft pick.
Osvaldo Bido – Pittsburgh Pirates
Ortiz is probably the one to own, but if you miss him, you can take a flier on Bido.
AJ Smith-Shawver – Atlanta Braves
The path to a full-time rotation spot is unclear and he has been too inconsistent to take as anything beyond a late-round flier.
Jhony Brito – New York Yankees
He’s flashed some potential and the Yankees are generally better than what they currently are. Brito could be worth a late-round flier.
Ronel Blanco – Houston Astros
Blanco should be able to catch a fair number of wins pitching for the Astros, but otherwise is more of a watch-and-wait type of player.
Watch and Wait
All of these pitchers have made starts for their teams this season, but haven't done enough to stick in their respective rotations or have pitched poorly enough that their spot in next year's rotation could be very much in question.
- Gavin Stone – Los Angeles Dodgers
- Jake Irvin – Washington Nationals
- Louie Varland – Minnesota Twins
- Reese Olson – Detroit Tigers
- Brandon Pfaadt – Arizona Diamondbacks
- Michael Grove – Los Angeles Dodgers
- Hogan Harris – Oakland Athletics
- Ryne Nelson – Arizona Diamondbacks
- Jared Shuster – Atlanta Braves
- Hayden Wesneski – Chicago Cubs
- Peyton Battenfield – Cleveland Guardians
- Matthew Liberatore – St. Louis Cardinals
- Luis Medina – Oakland Athletics
- Dylan Dodd – Atlanta Braves
- Ken Waldichuk – Oakland Athletics
- Shintaro Fujinami – Oakland Athletics
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