Rams vs. 49ers TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Deebo Samuel, Matthew Stafford, Isaac Guerendo, Jauan Jennings, Demarcus Robinson, Brock Purdy, Tutu Atwell

The 2024 fantasy football playoffs are officially upon us and they kick off with the Los Angeles Rams visiting the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday Night Football. Both teams are coming off dominant offensive performances (Rams scored 44 points in Week 14, 49ers scored 38), and this matchup could not be more important for NFL Wild Card and NFC West implications.

What will define this game will be if the 49ers -- who are depleted on offense because of injuries -- can keep up with the Rams. Lately, the Rams are looking more and more like the Kurt Warner Greatest Show on Turf circa 2000. Can the 49ers hang with them while they are without their top receiver and down to their fifth-string running back?

I will bring you Thursday Night Football analysis all year, focusing on who to start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this next awesome Thursday night matchup for Week 15 of the 2024 season. Good luck, RotoBallers!

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Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers - 8:15 p.m. EST

Notable Injuries:

• Demarcus Robinson (WR - LAR) - Questionable - ACTIVE
• Tyler Higbee (TE - LAR) - Questionable - OUT
• Isaac Guerendo (RB - SF) - Questionable - ACTIVE

Rams vs. 49ers Matchup Breakdown

As mentioned above, the Los Angeles Rams offense is now firing on all cylinders. They have scored at least 20 points in four straight games and averaged 28.3 points in that time frame.

Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua are healthy and now they might add Tyler Higbee to the mix after he missed a year with a knee injury. Add in an improved defense (they are ninth with just 3.3 opponent red-zone trips allowed the last three weeks, even with the Buffalo game), and this is a team that is hot at the right time.

Division rivalry on Thursday Night. 🍿 pic.twitter.com/94BPIhZ2DS

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) December 11, 2024

San Francisco, on the other hand, looked like the anti-Rams on offense before last week. In its last three games, it is 21st in team touchdowns per game and is 24th in points per game at just 19.3 in the last three weeks. It looked good against the Bears (38 points), but pitiful against three playoff teams. It scored 12.3 points per game against the Seahawks, Packers, and Bills. If San Francisco has any hope of winning this game, the offense has to improve.

The key will be keeping Brock Purdy protected and off the ground long enough for him to find his receivers. The 49ers allow more than two sacks per game this season and his accuracy rating is just 17th on the season. Shanahan needs to dial up the creativity in this one to keep up with Sean McVay's crew.

Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Kyren Williams (RB, LAR)

Kyren Williams was firmly back in bell-cow status after conceding about a third of the snaps to Blake Corum in Week 13. Williams played 83% of snaps against the Buffalo Bills and touched the ball 31 times. Even against a tough San Francisco rush defense, that kind of volume is a must in fantasy lineups for the playoffs. Williams is now the RB8 on the season.

KYREN WILLIAMS TOUCHDOWN! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Tzhh9xxQ46

— Alexis Kraft (@TheAlexisKraft) December 8, 2024

Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)

Let's put it this way. Among the 28 targets thrown to pass-catchers last week against Buffalo, Cooper Kupp and the guy next on this list saw 22 of them. Kupp had eight targets, which went for five catches, 92 yards, and a touchdown. Despite missing 4.5 weeks with an injury, Kupp is still WR5 in fantasy points per game with almost 15 half-PPR points each time he takes the field.

Puka Nacua (WR, LAR)

Only Ja'Marr Chase has more fantasy points per game over the last four weeks than Puka Nacua. He went wild last week with 14 targets, 12 catches, 162 yards, and two total touchdowns. That is now five straight games with at least 98 yards or a touchdown for Nacua.

Even Shohei Ohtani is a Puka Nacua fan (📹 @rams): pic.twitter.com/o0QEKCSvpj

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 23, 2023

Jauan Jennings (WR, SF)

Jauan Jennings now leads all players on San Francisco in targets, and it isn't especially close. Jennings has 42 targets over the last five weeks and he has been simply dominant as the 49ers WR1 in the five weeks since the San Francisco bye week. In that span, Jennings is tied with Terry McLaurin as the 12th-best wide receiver in fantasy football.

George Kittle (TE, SF)

In the most volatile position in the league this season, George Kittle has been a rock and someone you could rely on every week except the two weeks he missed with injury. He is the TE1 on the season with 14.2 fantasy points per game, almost two full points more than Brock Bowers at No. 2. The Rams are a bottom-10 defense against tight ends this season and Kittle has not yet been able to take advantage since he missed the first Rams game while hurt.

Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)

Over the last four weeks, Matthew Stafford has been the QB10 in fantasy scoring. It aligns, of course, with the good health of both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, who both missed time early in the season. San Francisco is middle of the pack in terms of quarterback fantasy scoring allowed, but it is the second-best team in the league in preventing passing yards from quarterbacks (only the Titans have been better). For that reason only, Stafford is merely a good start instead of a must-start.

Brock Purdy (QB, SF)

In that same four-week span, Brock Purdy is QB27. He has two games with fantasy points over 19, one with a score of 2.2, and one game missed with an injury. On the season, he is QB9 thanks to a stretch where he scored at least 20 fantasy points in four straight games. In his last matchup with L.A., Purdy threw for three touchdowns and put up 25.8 fantasy points.

This is one of 49ers Brock Purdy's best throws of the season 😤 pic.twitter.com/mWle38Xfmc

— Brad (@Graham_SFN) December 10, 2024

Isaac Guerendo / Patrick Taylor Jr. (RB, SF)

UPDATE: WITH ISAAC GUERENDO EXPECTED TO PLAY, HE IS THE 49ers RUNNING BACK TO START

If Isaac Guerendo misses this game with his foot sprain, Patrick Taylor Jr. would be the next man up, meaning he would officially be the fifth man up at running back for the 49ers. With all of the other running backs hurt, Taylor has had very little time to practice with the starters, much less play. But in limited time last week, he rushed seven times for 25 yards and a touchdown.

While the Rams have done a good job limiting rushing touchdowns to running backs this season (only nine allowed), they do give up the eighth-most rushing yards on the season.

Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups

Demarcus Robinson (WR, LAR)

Demarcus Robinson was DNP for two straight days to start the week due to his shoulder injury. It does not look good for his availability in this one, and even if he were to suit up, he could be limited in his snaps or yanked from the game if he aggravates the injury. Robinson has been playing a healthy amount of snaps, but this spot is not the place to roll the dice in the first game of the first round of the fantasy playoffs.

Tutu Atwell (WR, LAR)

If Demarcus Robinson and Jordan Whittington miss this game on Thursday, there is a chance Tutu Atwell could get a full-time role as the Rams WR3. He is firmly on the radar in deeper leagues for a flex position if that happens, but he is WR74 on the season and hasn't sniffed 10 fantasy points in a game since Week 4.

Tutu Atwell just surpassed a career high in receiving yards with this clutch 4th down reception from Matthew Stafford. Atwell has stepped up many times when the Rams needed him and this was another instance with Robinson in/out the lineup after injury.

Atwell delivers! pic.twitter.com/GRk9l22uPj

— RAMS ON FILM (@RamsOnFilm) December 9, 2024

Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson (TEs, LAR)

Colby Parkinson has been running as the TE1 for a few weeks but has exactly one catch in each of his last four games. Tyler Higbee is attempting to come back from a knee injury suffered in 2023, and he will assuredly be on some kind of a pitch count if he is active for Week 15.

Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR, SF)

Deebo Samuel might be the most divisive player in fantasy football right now, with two camps forming around him. Consider me in the camp of believing that he is washed this year and does not deserve to be in our lineups. Samuel now has four straight games with 4.5 half-PPR fantasy points or less. He aired his frustrations after Sunday's game, so maybe the squeaky wheel gets the grease here? But I'm not betting on the production, considering his track record in 2024.

Ricky Pearsall (WR, SF)

Nice story. Good player. I'm certainly rooting for him. But he has one total fantasy point in the last four weeks combined. This passing game revolves around Kittle, Jennings, and the running backs right now.

Kirksey’s Thursday Night Football Picks

Current Spread: San Francisco -2.5
Over/Under: 49.5

One specific trend is going to define this game. Who wins in the trenches? That might be a football bro thing to say, but a shocking trend has existed over the last few weeks for these teams, and it might determine the outcome of the game if it continues.

In the last three weeks, the 49ers have had a 12.2% sack rate, which is second-best in the league. In that same span, the Rams' sack rate is 1.03%, dead last in the league. Can the 49ers disrupt Matthew Stafford enough to make him ineffective? We know he won't run, so can the 49ers create sacks and turnovers with pressure? Similarly, will Brock Purdy have a clean pocket all night to pick the Rams apart?

In the end, I think the offensive talent wins out and the Rams win a close one. They are rolling right now and even a road date with the 49ers won't be able to stop it. Rams 24, 49ers 23.

The Pick: Rams +2.5, UNDER 49.5

2024 Record (including Thanksgiving games):
Spread (9-7), Over/Under (9-6-1)

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