Quentin Johnston Fantasy Football Outlook - Was His Big Game Legit or a Fluke?

Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston had one of the worst rookie seasons for a first-round receiver in recent memory, failing in the biggest moments and being plagued with drops.

It's possible Johnston could be hitting his stride now in 2024. He had his first big game in the pros in Week 2 against the Panthers. It only took over a year for it to happen, but Johnston has been putting in work in the offseason.

Was Johnston's big game a fluke or was it legit? Should Johnston be started in fantasy football lineups in Week 3? Let's dive in.

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Why Did Quentin Johnston Have a Huge Game? 

Johnston was targeted only six times against the Panthers in Week 2, but he hauled in five of those, and two went for touchdowns. That was good for 22.1 PPR fantasy points. The first was a 29-yard strike on which he ran a go route from the outside and beat Panthers CB Jaycee Horn handily.

Quentin Johnston contest catch touchdown.

It really is a new era, y’all.pic.twitter.com/XEoydtgO9x

— Brett Kollmann (@BrettKollmann) September 15, 2024

Johnston flashed his speed, hands, and ball-tracking skills on this TD. Johnston struggled with drops in his first season, often failing to haul in passes on crucial plays, so it's good to see him secure a tough over-the-shoulder pass here.

Quentin Johnston, more touchdowns than drops this season pic.twitter.com/4cxddj5Nzr

— ThatsGoodSports (@BrandonPerna) September 15, 2024

Johnston's second touchdown was a five-yard strike from QB Justin Herbert, with Johnston wide open in the end zone. This play looks like a busted coverage by the Panthers. Johnston simply runs a crossing route and the Panthers linebacker doesn't follow him in coverage.

There's not much that can be gathered from this play, but it's nice to see Herbert trust Johnston to catch it at least. Johnston had an awful time with crucial drops in the 2023 season.

#Chargers 1st round pick WR Quentin Johnston with another REALLY BAD DROP

😳😳

Justin Herbert’s weapons continue to struggle, 🎥NFL pic.twitter.com/kUcw4mFHaJ

— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) December 3, 2023

Herbert was often playing hero ball, and Johnston had plenty of nice routes where he beat defenders, only to drop a quality pass while open. Johnston often dropped passes even when the defender didn't get a hand on him throughout the process of the catch.

HORRIFIC: #Chargers 1st round pick WR Quentin Johnston with a HORRENDOUS DROP that could’ve help them win the game

😳😳
pic.twitter.com/BBgDu0cZcC

— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) November 19, 2023

Drops are typically a fluky stat, but it's tough to say if he'll continue to have better hands. He does have one drop this season, and it's a bit worrying that he still relies heavily on body catching, as you can see in the second touchdown he had. I'm not convinced his drops are fully behind him.

Will Quentin Johnston Continue to Dominate? 

It's difficult to say. Johnston did make a nice play on the 29-yard touchdown, but even if he's made great strides in his game, the Chargers are still a run-first offense, and it's difficult to see Johnston getting large target volume through this season.

59.4% of the yardage gained by the Chargers through two weeks has been via rushing, the highest rate in the league. pic.twitter.com/qqiqVpipYu

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) September 16, 2024

The Chargers are running the ball around twice as often as they are throwing it, and that doesn't leave much volume for the receivers. Herbert, though an elite passer, has yet to crack 200 yards passing in a game. Without much yardage, Johnston will be dependent on touchdowns to boost his fantasy numbers.

Typically when predicting WR breakouts, a high number of targets and high yardage total are more important than games with multiple touchdowns, especially in PPR. A receiver who earns a ton of targets can have big numbers without relying on red-zone and end-zone targets, which are more difficult to come by.

For example, Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba was targeted 16 times, hauling in 12 catches for 117 yards. That was good for 23.7 PPR fantasy points. Smith-Njigba didn't need touchdowns to boost his numbers, but had he caught just one, he would've had a monster day.

QUENTIN JOHNSTON CLIMBS THE LADDER 🔥

(🎥via @chargers) pic.twitter.com/CpKdGLNJb8

— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) August 5, 2023

The incessant body-catching is just tough to ignore. It's not a recipe for consistent success in the NFL. Johnston should be high-pointing passes like this, but the body catch could be indicative of Johnston having a lack of trust in his own hands.

It's entirely possible that the Chargers could just make it work, though. But it heavily caps his upside. The Chargers drafted WR Ladd McConkey for a reason. If Johnston were the clear No. 1 receiver and the Chargers had absolute faith in him, investing such an early pick at WR doesn't make sense.

What Will The Rest of Quentin Johnston's Season Look Like? 

It's more than likely Johnston doesn't repeat this type of performance consistently. Two-touchdown games are exceedingly rare even for elite receivers, and Johnston doesn't have the yardage or targets to score 20+ PPR fantasy points consistently.

In addition, McConkey is a rookie, and it's likely his usage gets ramped up throughout the season. Rookies tend to start slow, and McConkey has shown flashes, so it wouldn't be surprising if he becomes a bigger part of the offense.

And that's why you draft Ladd McConkey pic.twitter.com/uabDG5te3r

— Tyler Schoon (@tylerjschoon) September 10, 2024

McConkey has a clear advantage in route running over Johnston, and that was one of McConkey's biggest strengths coming out of college. In addition, McConkey ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash, which is faster than Johnston's. McConkey can be a deep threat given time, and Johnston could see deep targets siphoned from his workload.

Covering rookie WR Ladd McConkey with Edge Jadeveon Clowney is certainly a choice.#boltup pic.twitter.com/esX48a1ge4

— Thomas Martinez (@BoltsDraftTalk) September 17, 2024

McConkey should continue to eat into what precious little passing yards there are to go around in the Chargers offense. The defense has been playing remarkably well, so games where Herbert is forced to pass much more may be difficult to come by.

In short, don't expect Johnston to continue having this type of production. He'd likely need an outlandishly high number of touchdowns to continue scoring around 20 PPR fantasy points, and on a run-heavy offense, that's unlikely to happen.

Johnston's game was a bit of a fluke. It's reasonable to expect him to see around 50 receiving yards per game, but two touchdowns per game just isn't happening. Don't expect Johnston to put up WR1 numbers for much of the season. He's best as a flex option in normal-sized leagues and at best a WR2 in deep leagues.

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