RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around 110 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~123
ANALYSIS:
At first glance, being drafted to a team that already employs Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, Joshua Palmer, and Gerald Everett could be construed as a negative thing. While there are certainly some barriers he needs to overcome, the landing spot is not without promise.
The reason for that is simple: Justin Herbert and an incredibly pass-heavy offense. Last year, the Chargers attempted 711 passes. A 15% target share on that volume would equate to 107 targets. Give say, Jaxon Smith-Njigba a 15% target share on Seattle’s 2022 pass volume of 573 and you get just 86 targets.
Quentin Johnston will need to separate himself from No. 3 receiver Joshua Palmer, which given his veteran status is not assured, but it’s also not a daunting task either.
Johnston had a fantastic final season at TCU finishing with 96 targets, 60 receptions, 1,069 yards, and six touchdowns. He constantly delivered in some of TCU’s biggest games, up against some of the best competition they’d face all year.
- Against #19 Kansas, he finished with 14/206/1.
- Against #13 Oklahoma, he finished with 8/180/1.
- Against #17 Kansas State, he finished with 5/75/1.
- Against #18 Texas, he finished with 3/66/1.
- Against #13 Kansas State, he finished with 4/139/0.
- Against #2 Michigan, he finished with 6/163/1.
He finished second in the country with an 8.9-yard after-contact per reception average. He was a menace in the open field, consistently breaking tackles. His yard per route run average of 3.05 was the fifth-highest. He also finished sixth with a 17.8-yard per reception average. He can beat you on a short crosser because of his ability to make big plays after the catch and he can beat you downfield too.
As long as Johnston can beat out Palmer and command the lion’s share of the No. 3 receiver role, there’s enough volume in this offense where he could become an immediate fantasy producer, especially with his penchant for big plays. This probably doesn’t even need to be said, but in the event of a Keenan Allen or Mike Williams injury, Johnston’s value would skyrocket. Being a starting receiver and getting to catch passes from Justin Herbert will do that.
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