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In recent years, quarterbacks have become increasingly popular in fantasy football. This position has continued to climb up draft boards as they have continued to put up video game numbers. Like anything, as something becomes more popular, the prices go up. In this article, we'll be focusing on four quarterbacks whose prices are too high, and because of that, fantasy managers should avoid drafting this fantasy football season.
The tricky part is that readers often interpret "avoid" to mean "bad," but "avoid" also means "overpriced." Overpriced doesn't mean bad at all; it just means that the product is not worth the price of admission. This article will include some signal-callers who are big names, and readers may be surprised to see their names included.
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C.J. Stroud: QB5, ADP 46
In 14 full games Stroud played last season, he averaged 19.7 PPG. This would have ranked as the QB5 over the full year. We’re excluding his Week 14 contest against the Jets, where he threw just 91 yards but did play 86% of the snaps. We’re being generous by not counting that game. If we count it and exclude Week 18, which is typical, he ended up as the QB10 with an 18.5 PPG average.
In 14 games, Stroud finished with a 64.9% completion percentage, 23 touchdowns, five interceptions, and 4,017 yards. His per-game averages in those contests would equal out to 4,878 yards, 28 touchdowns, and six interceptions over 17 games. He also chipped in with 39 rushes for 167 yards and three touchdowns. In those 14 games, Stroud averaged 34 attempts per game, 12th-highest among quarterbacks in 2023.
Excluding Week 14 and Week 18, Stroud had five top-10 weekly finishes last year in 13 contests. He had another five weekly finishes between QB11-QB15 and three outside the top 20. He had five weeks where he scored fewer than 15.5 points. None of that is to say he was bad or to paint him in a bad light, it’s more to say, “Look where he finished despite being rather up and down yet as a rookie. Imagine the upside!”
Stroud is now entering his second season. Houston was able to retain offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik. They traded for Diggs, and fantasy managers should expect healthier seasons from Dalton Schultz, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell, who missed 10 games combined. Stroud has arguably the best collection of pass-catchers among any quarterback in the NFL. Collins, Diggs, and Dell ranked seventh, 18th, and 25th in receiving yards per game.
Given the acquisition of Diggs this offseason, we should expect the Texans to pass the ball even more than they did last season. Stroud is no longer a rookie, and the strength of their offense firmly lies in their quarterback and strong quartet of pass-catchers. It shouldn’t be surprising to see Stroud’s pass attempt per game average creep up to 36-37. That would push him from 12th to the top five in pass attempts.
He’ll need that volume to offset the lack of rushing. While Stroud did find the end zone three times on the ground last year, he finished with just 167 yards rushing. This fact makes Stroud tough to buy into for fantasy at his current price. In 2022, Kirk Cousins threw for 4,547 yards and 29 touchdowns and finished as the QB13. Granted, he had 14 interceptions, but he also provided next to nothing on the ground.
In the 14 games where Stroud played at least 90% of the snaps, he had a 19.7 PPG average. Dak Prescott averaged 20.4 PPG last year, and he’s being drafted as the QB9 with an ADP of 56. Jordan Love was in his first year as a starter and averaged 19.5 PPG. He’s being drafted as the QB8 with an ADP of 59. The last time we saw Joe Burrow healthy in 2022, he averaged 22.3 PPG and was drafted as the QB7 with an ADP of 58. Kyler Murray averaged 20.7 PPG in 2022 before tearing his ACL, and last year averaged 19.1 PPG and now has Marvin Harrison Jr. He’s being drafted as the QB10 with an ADP of 68. Stroud is an easy sell at his current price and ADP.
Brock Purdy: QB11, ADP 82
Evaluating Purdy is a struggle because he’s not a runner and has poor passing volume. His passing volume is awful. In 2023, the 49ers finished 32nd in pass attempts and 26th in 2022. So, how is it that he was able to finish as the QB7 (19.2 PPG) last year? Incredible efficiency. Last year, Purdy had a 7.0% touchdown rate and averaged 9.6 yards per attempt. Since 2000, no quarterback has posted a 7.0% touchdown rate and averaged 9.5 yards per attempt while also attempting at least 300 passes. No one. Not until Purdy.
Only five quarterbacks have had a 6.5% touchdown rate in back-to-back seasons. Two of them belong to Aaron Rodgers. The other three are Peyton Manning, Lamar Jackson, and Drew Brees. Notice two names that aren’t listed: Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. Only Rodgers has ever had back-to-back seasons with a touchdown rate of 7.0% or higher.
Since 2000, only two quarterbacks have had a season with a 9.5 yards per attempt average and at least 300 pass attempts: Purdy and Kurt Warner. Within those parameters, zero quarterbacks have ever had back-to-back seasons with a 9.0 or higher yards per attempt average. There are just two quarterbacks who have had back-to-back seasons with a yards-per-attempt average of over 8.5.
Last year, Purdy attempted 444 passes. Since 2000, the most yards any quarterback has ever thrown on 460 or fewer pass attempts is 3,810. Purdy had 4,280. There have been six quarterbacks since 2000 to throw for more than 30 touchdowns in a season on less than 460 pass attempts.
QB Leaders by YPA [2018-2023]
[min. 600 pass attempts]1. Brock Purdy (9.2)*
2. Jimmy Garoppolo (8.2)*
t3. Nick Mullens (8.0)*
t3. Deshaun Watson (8.0)
5. Patrick Mahomes (7.9)*played for Kyle Shanahan's 49ers
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) June 7, 2024
Even if Purdy just “regresses” to a 6.0% touchdown rate and an 8.0 yards per attempt average, both of which would still be considered elite, he’d have finished with roughly five fewer touchdowns and 728 fewer yards. That’s 49.12 fewer fantasy points total and 2.9 less per game.
Last year, the 10th-best touchdown rate was 5.0% and the 10th-best yards per attempt average was 7.4, coincidentally both were held by Josh Allen. If Purdy “regresses” to “just” Josh Allen's levels of efficiency, he would have had nine fewer touchdowns and 994 fewer yards. That would be 75.76 fewer total points and 4.45 fewer PPG. That would have taken him from QB7 to QB25.
Fantasy managers need one of two things to be true for Purdy in 2024 -- either their passing volume needs to increase significantly, or they need Purdy to continue to be incredibly efficient. Either way, I’d rather pass on Purdy at his given ADP and target someone like Trevor Lawrence or Jayden Daniels, who can be two to three rounds later.
Jared Goff: QB12, ADP 93
I’m going to be blunt about this… I have some concerns. Last year, Goff finished as the QB15 with a 17.6 PPG average. Russell Wilson finished ahead of him with a 17.7 PPG average. Baker Mayfield was right behind him at 17.4 PPG. This is despite Goff throwing 4,575 yards and 30 touchdowns. How much better are we expecting him to be?
In 2022, Goff finished as the QB14 with a 17.6 PPG average. He was only QB14 despite throwing for 4,438 yards, 29 touchdowns, and just seven touchdowns. Again, I’m going to ask, how much better are we expecting him to be? Last year, Goff finished as a weekly top 12 quarterback six times—37.5%. From 2022-2023, Goff has finished as a weekly top 12 quarterback 13 times. 39.5%. He’s finished between QB13 and QB24 15 times, or roughly 47%. Okay, I want you to remember those numbers because they will be very important in just a second. Goff finished as a QB1 37.5% of the time in 2023 and 39.5% since he became the Lions’ starter in 2022.
- Geno Smith: QB1 33% of the time in 2023 and 42% of the time from 2022-2023
- Baker Mayfield: QB1 44% of the time in 2023 (did not play with Tampa Bay in 2022)
- Deshaun Watson: QB1 50% of the time in 2023 (only six games) and 42% of the time from 2022-2023
- Trevor Lawrence: QB1 53% of the time in 2023 and 56% of the time from 2022-2023
- Justin Herbert: QB1 62% of the time in 2023 and 57% of the time from 2022-2023 (new coaching staff)
- Kirk Cousins: QB1 62% of the time in 2023 and 56% of the time from 2022-2023 (moved from Minnesota to Atlanta)
- Derek Carr: 41% of the time in 2023 with the Saints and 44% of the time from 2022-2023 (with the Raiders and Saints)
Based on Goff’s overall QB finish over the past two years and the numbers above, I think it’s safe to say we might be slightly over-drafting him. Without question, Lawrence should be drafted ahead of him. Jayden Daniels also belongs ahead of him just because of the upside he brings with his legs. We’ve seen Goff play out of his mind the past two seasons, but he hasn’t even finished in the top 13. Despite that, we’re drafting as a top-12 quarterback even though he finishes as a weekly top-12 quarterback at a below-average rate compared to many quarterbacks going behind him. I’m going to need someone to explain this to me.
Now, don’t get me wrong. Goff is a great real-life quarterback. He’s fantastic. He’s not elite, but he’s very, very good. As a fantasy quarterback, his ceiling seems to be that of an upper-tier QB2. Since 2022, there have been 32 quarterbacks throwing at least 500 passes. Goff ranks ninth in touchdown rate at 4.9%. Since Goff doesn’t run, his spike weeks and ceiling are tied to touchdowns. Goff is already performing very well in that department. Since 2022, he’s tied for third in most touchdown passes thrown with 59. Should we realistically expect him to perform even better than he already is?
Not to mention, his consistency in his two seasons in Detroit has been uncanny. 587 passes in 2022. 605 in 2023. 29 touchdowns in 2022. 30 in 2023. 4.9% touchdown rate in 2022. 5.0% in 2023. 4,438 yards in 2022. 4,575 in 2023. 7.6 yards per attempt in both seasons. Again, I’m going to ask, how much better are we expecting him to be? Because based on his positional ADP, we expect him to get better.
If there’s an argument for Goff getting better, it’s his schedule. In six outdoor games, including the playoffs, Goff averaged 13.6 PPG. He averaged 256 yards, 1.0 touchdowns, and 0.66 interceptions per game. In 14 dome games last year, Goff averaged 19.5 PPG. He averaged 277 yards, 2.0 touchdowns, and 0.57 interceptions per game. We see a similar split from the 2022 season.
In 11 dome games last year, Goff averaged 19.6 PPG. He averaged 271 yards, 2.2 touchdowns, and 0.54 interceptions per game. In six outdoor games, Goff averaged just 13.2 PPG. His per-game averages decreased to 244 yards, 0.83 touchdowns, and 0.16 interceptions. Goff and the Lions play three outdoor games for their 2024 schedule. However, it should be noted that two of them are in Week 16 and Week 17, smack dab in the fantasy playoffs.
19.5 PPG, his two-year dome average, would have ranked QB7 in 2022 and QB6 in 2023. I am generally hesitant to buy away and home splits just because they’re often small sample sizes and can be a bit fluky. However, this is two years’ worth of data, and the splits are significant. Also, the splits for 2022 and 2023 are extremely similar. They’re almost identical! It’s hard to ignore that.
I’d be lying if I didn’t say those splits aren’t incredibly enticing. Or the fact that Jameson Williams, a former top-15 pick who is having his first normal offseason of his career, is walking into the No. 2 receiver spot could be a real jolt to this offense. Despite that, I still can’t get over the numbers, so Goff is a sell. I think he’s going to be a great QB2. I think there’s a chance he finishes in that 11-13 range, but his current price requires fantasy managers to buy him at his ceiling, and I don’t want to do that.
Tua Tagovailoa: QB13, ADP 97
When you look at Tagovailoa's stats for the NFL, you'd think he has to be viewed as one of the best quarterbacks in the league, right? He led the league in passing yards. He was fifth in touchdowns, fourth in pass success rate, second in yards per attempt, and fifth in quarterback rating. However, in a recent article at ESPN, where they interviewed coaches, scouts, and executives about the ten best players at each position, Tagovailoa's name was absent.
A similar dynamic exists about his fantasy value. Despite leading the league in passing yards and finishing fifth in touchdowns, he still ended the season as the QB16 with a 17.2 PPG. Last year, he tied with Daniel Jones, finishing as the QB10 with an 18.4 PPG average. Despite that, his QB1 weekly rate is well below what fantasy managers should expect for someone being drafted as the QB13.
The image above is courtesy of RotoViz and displays his weekly finishes from the past two seasons. As you can see, Tua has finished as a QB2 more often than he has finished as a QB1. Justin Herbert is being drafted behind Tua, and over the past two seasons, he's finished as a QB1 57% of the time. Trevor Lawrence is also being drafted behind Tua, and his QB1 rate in the past two seasons is 55%.
Kirk Cousins' weekly QB1 rate is 56% since 2022. Baker Mayfield finished as a QB1 41% of the time last year with Tampa Bay, the same rate as Tagovailoa. Geno Smith has been a QB1 47% of the time since becoming Seattle's starter in 2022. From 2022-2023, Deshaun Watson has a QB1 weekly finish rate of 42%. Last year, Derek Carr finished as a QB1 41% of the time, and Russell Wilson did it 47% of the time. All of these players are going after Tagovailoa.
The other concern with Tagovailoa is how much his play has fallen off at the end of the year. In 2022, from Weeks 1-10, he was the QB7 with a 20.4 PPG average. From Weeks 11-17, he performed as the QB17 with a 15.2 PPG average. The same thing happened this past year. From Weeks 1-10, he was the QB9 with a 19.2 PPG average. From Weeks 11-17, he was the QB20 with a 14.6 PPG average. Gardner Minshew and Jake Browning were better than him. None of that sounds particularly good, but we'll get to why Tagovailoa could be in store for a big year despite all of this.
Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and Tua Tagovailoa could put up some looney tunes numbers in 2024 pic.twitter.com/EiDo3tieO6
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) July 2, 2024
As mentioned in the tweet above, the Dolphins were playing with a lead for 50% of their offensive drives, which was fourth-best in the NFL. When Miami had just a one-point lead or more, their pass rate was just 48.6%, which was the 13th lowest. However, when we shifted it the other way, Miami was down by just one point or more, and their pass rate shot up to 67.1%, the eighth-highest in such situations.
Why is that important? It's because Miami's defense could be in trouble this upcoming season. Star defensive lineman Christian Wilkins left in free agency. Star pass-rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips were placed on the PUP list due to their seasons last year. Chubb suffered a torn ACL, and Phillips had a torn Achilles. Both injuries could keep both players off the field early in the year.
In Weeks 3, 5-6, 8, 12-13, and 15, the Dolphins won by a combined point total of 283 to 102. Tagovailoa attempted just 20 passes in the fourth quarter in those seven games. In the third quarter of those contests, Tua attempted 57 passes. That means he had attempted just 77 passes for seven halves of football. That's equivalent to 3.5 games, and he threw just 77 passes! During the second half of those seven games, Tua averaged 22 pass attempts per game. The lowest pass attempt per game average last year was 29. Despite this, Tua still led the league in passing yards and had 29 touchdowns. Not to mention, Jaylen Waddle missed four games worth of action last season.
What will his stats look like if the defense gets worse (it will), Waddle is healthy, and they don't have seven completely one-sided blow-out wins on the schedule? However, it is interesting that in Tua's 10 "normal" games last year, he averaged 267.4 yards per game, and in their seven blow-out wins, despite hardly throwing the ball in the second half, he still averaged 278.6 yards per game. In the 10 other games, he had 13 touchdowns, but in the seven blow-outs, he had 16.
Last year, in seven games against playoff teams, Tua averaged just 227.6 yards per game. He threw eight touchdowns and seven interceptions and averaged just 13.5 fantasy points per game. In the other 11 games against non-playoff teams, Tagovailoa averaged 293.6 yards per game. He threw 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions and averaged 19.0 fantasy points per game. Tua is a bit of a bully. He'll pick on the lesser guys, but he's not good enough to stand up to the big boys. Luckily, the Dolphins have an easy projected schedule for fantasy managers in 2024.
Tua's gaudy box score numbers and the projection of even more passing volume in 2024 aren't enough to keep Tagovailoa off the sell list. His weekly QB1 finish rate is well below what fantasy managers would like to see from someone they're likely selecting as their primary starter. Fantasy managers are better off drafting Jayden Daniels, who has more upside due to his rushing, and pairing him with Aaron Rodgers, Baker Mayfield, or Geno Smith later in the draft. Instead of selecting Tagovailoa, fantasy managers should be drafting Trevor Lawrence, and you can read about why here. Over the past two seasons, Tagovailoa has added only 144 rushing yards and zero rushing scores. All of his fantasy scoring is dependent on his arm. His inconsistent nature and lack of consistent weekly upside are enough to sell him at his current price.
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