Quarterback Starts/Sits for Week 5 - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups for Lineup Decisions

Week 5 of the NFL season is here, and we’re starting to learn more and more about these teams with each passing week. As we get more and more information, it will become even easier to analyze the best matchups on a weekly basis. Right now, we have some details on each team, but we don’t have the full stories quite yet.

There are a lot of interesting matchups to watch this week. Teams are trying to rack up early wins to build division leads while others are trying to keep pace with those ahead of them. For some, that task is going to be a lot easier said than done. 

Early in the year, you need to rack up as many wins as possible while your team is still healthy and bye weeks have yet to arrive. With that in mind, your quarterback matchups become even more important to analyze which offenses are ready for success vs which ones still need a few weeks to get warmed up. Here are the three best and worst matchups for Sunday to consider when setting your lineup.

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Here Comes Trouble - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups

Green Bay Packers Pass Rush vs. Daniel Jones

Through four games, despite offseason improvements, the New York Giants have struggled to protect quarterback Daniel Jones. He’s been sacked 14 times in four games, and they have the second-worst adjusted sack rate behind only the Chicago Bears. Jones (ankle) is also dealing with an injury that forced him out of last week’s matchup. The Giants offense has sputtered this season, outside of running back Saquon Barkley, and the pressure Jones is under hasn’t helped.

Green Bay’s defense hasn’t been as great as they hoped in the offseason, but the pass rush has been pretty close to as advertised. Green Bay ranks tied for fifth in adjusted sack rate, and they’re tied for sixth in total sacks. They also rank in the top 10 in pressure rate and 11th in quarterback knockdown rate. They're using a heavy dose of blitzing to get after the quarterback, but that’s not an issue as long as they’re getting pressure on opposing QBs which they are doing and will do against Jones this week.

Verdict: Sit 'Em

Minnesota Vikings Pass Rush vs. Justin Fields

In the battle of the two most unlikely 2-1 teams, New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones can take the Giants to a 3-1 record, but he is in for a tough matchup to get there. The Bears' defense has been strong through three weeks, as they’re giving up an average of 19 points per game despite playing with an anemic offense. The large reason for their defensive success has been their pass rush which ranks first in the NFL in hurries with 22 and a hurry rate of 22.9 percent. They’ve also done so while blitzing at the second-lowest rate in the NFL at 7.3 percent, while the Arizona Cardinals lead the NFL at 46.8 percent.

For the Giants, they have struggled to give Jones time in the pocket. They’ve given up the third-most sacks with the league’s second-worst adjusted sack rate, and they rank dead last with a 40 percent pressure rate. Jones has a good ability to scramble, and he’s gotten out of the pocket a fair bit, as he ranks second in the league in scrambles. However, Chicago’s front gets pressure without blitzing, which means there are more defenders waiting to rally up when he tries to break contain.

Verdict: Sit ‘Em

Dallas Cowboys Pass Rush vs. Matthew Stafford

Things just continue to get worse for Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford. He has been sacked 16 times in four games, including seven times in their Week 4 loss to the San Francisco 49ers. The Rams continue to struggle to run the ball with any consistency, and that forces Stafford to continue to drop back all game long because they can’t run the ball to milk the clock late in the game. That’s not going to magically fix itself this week. 

The Dallas Cowboys have been holding things together with glue and defense through four weeks, and it’s their pass rush that’s done the majority of the work for them. The group ranks first in adjusted sack rate and tied for second in sacks overall. The main way to beat Dallas has been to move the ball on the ground against them, as they rank in the bottom half of the league in nearly every running metric, but, when you drop back to pass, as the Rams do often, your quarterback has to have his head on a swivel.

Verdict: Sit ‘Em

Easy on Sunday Morning - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups

Arizona Cardinals Pass Rush vs. Jalen Hurts

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is off to a fantastic start this season. He’s responsible for eight touchdowns through four games, and he’s quarterbacking the last undefeated team in the NFL. One major reason for the success has been the offensive line. Their ability to block in the running game and give him room to work in the pocket has allowed for more time for receivers to get open.

In Week 5, they draw the Arizona Cardinals defense that has struggled to generate pressure all season. They rank last in sacks and adjusted sack rate, and this is despite the fact that they rank second in the league in blitz rate at 42.2 percent. They’re 10th in the league in pressure rate, but they haven’t been able to get home to turn those pressures into sacks. With Hurts’ ability to run, they’ll likely be forced to blitz a bit less to avoid a big running day out of the third-year quarterback.

Verdict: Start 'Em

Las Vegas Raiders Pass Rush vs. Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes had started the season somewhat slow, but he and the offense lit things up in Week 4 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Now, he gets a matchup with a unit that he has absolutely torched in his career to the tune of a 7-1 record with an average of 318.3 yards per game with 22 touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s been sacked nine times in eight games against the Raiders, but this Raiders team has struggled to get sacks this year. 

The Raiders rank 31st with five sacks on the year, and they’re 28th in adjusted sack rate. Now, they’re against a Kansas City offensive line that has kept Mahomes upright well this season with only five sacks allowed and an adjusted sack rate of 4.1 percent. This Raiders defense has talented pass rushers, but they don’t really have the secondary to slow down this passing attack, and Mahomes should have no trouble carving them up.

Verdict: Start ‘Em

Atlanta Falcons Pass Rush vs. Tom Brady

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady has been inconsistent to start the season, but it hasn’t been the fault of his offensive line. The Bucs rank 1st in pressure rate allowed, and they’re fourth in adjusted sack rate allowed. The offense looked like it was about to start turning the corner in the second half of last week, and they’re only going to get better as the season continues on. 

The Falcons have the sixth-worst adjusted sack rate this season at 5.4 percent, and they are ranked 30th in pressure rate this year. Teams simply have too much time in the pocket to pass against this team. This Bucs offensive line has a weakness in the middle, but the tackles are a huge strength to the team. The Bucs are teetering on the edge of an offensive explosion, and this is a matchup where that could come.

Verdict: Start 'Em

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