Quarterback Starts/Sits for Week 3 - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups for Lineup Decisions

Week 3 is here and, as per usual, the NFL remains as unpredictable as ever. Through two weeks, there are a whopping six teams that are 2-0 with a whole lot of 1-1 teams that have won or lost games they shouldn't have. We're still trying to figure out what to make of some of these teams, but we definitely know more than we did three weeks ago. 

Remember that, with limited information, we have to make sure that we exercise a bit of caution early on in the year. It's important to not overreact to the outcomes of Weeks 1 & 2, although that info does still matter to a certain extent. 

Early in the year, you need to rack up as many wins as possible while your team is still healthy and bye weeks have yet to arrive. With that in mind, your quarterback matchups become even more important to analyze which offenses are ready for success vs which ones still need a few weeks to get warmed up. Here are the three best and worst matchups for Sunday to consider when setting your lineup.

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Here Comes Trouble - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups

Buffalo Bills Pass Rush vs. Tua Tagovailoa

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is coming off of his best game as a pro in Week 2 against the Baltimore Ravens. He set a career-best in yards and touchdowns with 108 more yards and two more passing touchdowns than he had registered previously in his career. Despite that, I can’t recommend him against this Bills defense. His offensive line still has room to grow, as they gave up three sacks, and they’ve allowed a 26.4 percent pressure rate through two games.

For Buffalo, they’ve gotten off to an absolutely phenomenal start. They have nine sacks through two games with a league-best 12.3 percent sack rate. In three career games against the Bills, he has a 56.44 percent completion rate with one touchdown and four interceptions. He also averages just 5.73 yards per attempt in this matchup with an average of 193 passing yards per game. Between the pass rush and defense overall, Tua could have a very rough fall to Earth.

Verdict: Sit 'Em

Dallas Cowboys Pass Rush vs. Daniel Jones

You’re more than likely not starting New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones heading into his Week 3 matchup with the Dallas Cowboys. In the event you were considering him hopefully, this convinces you to look elsewhere. Through two weeks, Jones is QB19 overall with three touchdowns to one interception. He’s been sacked eight times in two games with only one fumble after struggling with them throughout the first few seasons of his career. However, Week 3 could be a troublesome matchup for the fourth-year signal caller.

The Cowboys rank third in adjusted sack rate, and the Giants are the third-worst offensive line in adjusted sack rate. Jones’ eight sacks are tied for the third-most in the NFL, but the issue is that he’s not dropping back as often as other guys that are getting sacked at a similar volume. He has fewer opportunities to score points, and when he does, he’s getting sacked more often. Dallas has eight sacks in two games, and they’ll be relying on that pass rush to continue to carry them with quarterback Dak Prescott on the shelf.

Verdict: Sit ‘Em

San Francisco 49ers Pass Rush vs. Russell Wilson

Through two weeks, we have yet to see Russell Wilson truly gel in this Denver Broncos offense, and I don’t think that’s about to change. Wilson is QB20 after two weeks, and his team has had major issues scoring down in the red zone. There are only two teams that have yet to score a touchdown when they’ve gotten into the red zone. The Broncos and, funnily enough, the Seattle Seahawks have a 0% touchdown rate inside the 20-yard line. Now, they draw a San Francisco 49ers defense that looked quite strong a week ago.

The 49ers have just four sacks on the year, but they rank fourth in adjusted sack rate. Between the Week 1 rain game against the Chicago Bears and the slow-paced Seahawks in Week 2, they haven’t had as many chances to rush the passer. They rank in the top five in hurry percentage, knockdown percentage, and pressure percentage while ranking bottom five in blitz rate. They’re getting pressure with four while dropping more guys in coverage. Russ has struggled with taking checkdowns for years now, and he might have no other choice this week.

Verdict: Sit ‘Em

Easy on Sunday Morning - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups

Arizona Cardinals Pass Rush vs. Matthew Stafford

Through two games, the Arizona Cardinals have registered just one sack despite both opposing quarterbacks having 40 or more dropbacks in each game. Their 1.7 percent adjusted sack rate is the league’s second-worst mark, and they’re doing so despite blitzing at a high rate, as they rank 1st in the NFL with a 50 percent blitz rate. Last season, in three matchups with the Los Angeles Rams, they sacked Stafford just four times despite having Chandler Jones on the roster. 

Through two games, Stafford needs to work on cleaning up his interceptions, but he also improved from Week 1 to Week 2 with a 75 percent completion percentage compared to 70.7 percent in Week 1. The Rams have given up eight sacks in two games, but their adjusted sack rate is the seventh-worst mark instead of the third-worst. The Rams know they need to win in the division, and Sean McVay has done well in this matchup as he’s 10-1 in five seasons at the helm of the Rams against the Cardinals.

Verdict: Start 'Em

Indianapolis Colts Pass Rush vs. Patrick Mahomes

Through two games, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has got to be in love with the offensive line that’s in front of him. They rank first in sacks and adjusted sack rate despite ranking second in the number of times they have been blitzed. Mahomes’ ability to avoid pressure and find open wideouts when he’s been pressured. Now, he gets an Indianapolis Colts team that has struggled mightily through two weeks. 

The Colts were expected to romp through the AFC South and start the year with their first two games being against teams that both picked in the top 3 in the previous draft. Heading into Week 3, they barely escaped Week 1 with a tie, and they got shut out in Week 2 on the road. Now, their pass rush, which has just three sacks and a 4.4 percent adjusted sack rate, is heading into a matchup with the group that has been the best offensive line in the NFL so far this season. Things look grim for the presumed favorites of the AFC South.

Verdict: Start ‘Em

Miami Dolphins Pass Rush vs. Josh Allen

As is the case with Mahomes, you don’t need my advice to start Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. You’re going to start him anyway. Through two weeks, the buzzsaw that has been the Bills' offense has been just obnoxious. Allen has been sacked just three times while averaging 307 passing yards per game. In eight games against the Dolphins, Allen is 7-1 with a 21:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

The Dolphins are tied for the fourth-fewest sacks while having the fifth-worst adjusted sack rate. In addition to that, they rank near the bottom of the league in passing yards and completion percentage allowed while registering a league-worst three quarterback hits in two games. For reference, the Washington Commanders lead the league with 21. This Dolphins group is not generating pressure, and this isn’t the matchup for that to start changing.

Verdict: Start 'Em

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