Quarterback Starts/Sits for Week 12 - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups for Lineup Decisions

Week 12 of the NFL season is here. For those of you that celebrate, a belated Happy Thanksgiving to you. This NFL season is starting to get really interesting. We have teams at the top of each conference jostling for position, and there are others that are making a late surge to find their way back into the playoff mix.

We had a good amount of success in this column last week. In the starts part of the column, we went 2-of-3 on the week, although the one miss we had was Joe Burrow ending up as the top overall quarterback in fantasy for Week 11. Matthew Stafford leaving his game early with an injury helped the cause, as he finished as QB17 despite exiting early. Jimmy Garoppolo and Jalen Hurts both smashed for us, as they each finished in the top six at their position a week ago. Lamar just barely missed the top 12 with a little over three points separating him from a QB1-level week.

There are no bye weeks in our way this week, and we have just two more weeks where we will be searching for replacements for those quarterbacks that are on the shelf. These are the weeks that you have worked all year for, so we have to stay locked in now to really finish that push for a playoff berth.

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Here Comes Trouble - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups

Kansas City Chiefs Pass Rush vs. Bryce Perkins

You’re likely not starting Los Angeles Rams quarterback Bryce Perkins if you can help it, but, in the event he is an option for you, I would be looking elsewhere this week. Perkins is playing behind an offensive line that has gotten healthier as of late, but they are still struggling to keep their quarterback upright. They’ve given up at least two sacks in each of their four games during this losing streak. Their only games allowing fewer than two sacks this season have come against teams that struggle to rush the passer. Against teams that get after the quarterback, their 8.8 percent adjusted sack rate, which ranks 24th in the league, shows it’s ugly head.

The Kansas City Chiefs defense has steadily improved over the last few years, and they’ve been a strong unit getting after the passer this season. Through 10 games, the Chiefs have 32 sacks, for an average of 3.2 per game. Their adjusted sack rate of 9.9 percent ranks third in the NFL, and they’re 10th in the NFL in hurry rate. They’re also sixth in the league in pressure rate, and they’re poised to improve all of those numbers this week.

Verdict: Sit 'Em

San Francisco 49ers Pass Rush vs. Andy Dalton

New Orleans Saints quarterback Andy Dalton continues to remain the starter in New Orleans despite inconsistencies under center. Last week was one of the weeks that helsp maintain that starting job, as he went 21-of-25 for 260 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. However, his offensive line has been struggling of late after a strong start to the season. He’s been sacked nine times in the team’s last three games. Their adjusted sack rate on the year is right around league average.

While the Saints have been up and down throughout the year, the San Francisco 49ers have been hitting their stride as of late. Since losing back-to-back games in Weeks 6 & 7, they’ve proceeded to rip off three straight wins with a point differential of +61 over that span. On defense, they’re ninth in sacks and adjusted sack rate, and they’re getting healthy which just makes them even more ferocious. They can take the ball out of the hands of the running backs and force Dalton to beat them, and I don’t think he can do that.

Verdict: Sit ‘Em

Pittsburgh Steelers Pass Rush vs. Matt Ryan

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Matt Ryan made us all look foolish two weeks ago, but he’s got a tougher matchup in front of him for Week 12. His offensive line is tied for last in the league with 40 sacks allowed, and they’re allowing the fifth-worst adjusted sack rate around the NFL. When they are being forced to pass, they’re struggling to keep whatever quarterback behind them upright.

Since getting T.J. Watt back in the lineup, the Pittsburgh Steelers have two sacks in each of their last two games. They registered seven quarterback hits in last week’s loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. On the year, they’ve struggled to generate a consistent pass rush, but Watt just makes this group completely different. Additionally, with how much the Colts have struggled this season, it makes their life that much easier.

Verdict: Sit ‘Em

Easy on Sunday Morning - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups

Arizona Cardinals Pass Rush vs. Justin Herbert

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has been sacked the third-fewest times in the NFL this season, and the Chargers also have the third-best adjusted sack rate in the NFL. Getting wide receiver Keenan Allen back last week made a huge difference in the way this offense was operating, and that makes Herbert’s life easier overall. Now, they get a defense that has struggled to generate pressure at all this season.

The Arizona Cardinals are 27th in the NFL in sacks this year with just 19, and that works out to an average of 1.7 per game which is just an absolutely putrid mark. The part that is the most confounding about that is the high marks they have in pressure stats, as they’re 5th in knockdown rate, 6th in hurry rate and 8th in pressure rate. Herbert gets the ball out so quickly that he’ll likely continue to make this defense struggle, and he should be in for a strong game.

Verdict: Start 'Em

Houston Texans Pass Rush vs. Tua Tagovailoa

In games he has started and finished, Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is a perfect 7-0 on the year. He’s thrown for 260 or more yards in six out of those seven games. Most importantly, his offensive line has done a fantastic job of protecting him.  He hasn’t been sacked in three of his last four games, and he’s only been sacked multiple times in two games all year. They’re in the top 10 in both sacks allowed and adjusted sack rate.

Through 10 games, the Houston Texans have 22 sacks, and eight of those came in two games against the Tennessee Titans with Malik Willis under center and the Chicago Bears, who have been the worst offensive line in the NFL this season. This Texans’ defense just doesn’t have the horses to hange with this Miami offense, and Tua should have a clean pocket to work from the majority of the afternoon.

Verdict: Start ‘Em

Los Angeles Rams Pass Rush vs. Patrick Mahomes

After a somewhat quiet start to the season, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been phenomenal as of late. He’s scored 26 or more points in each of his last four games, and he’s gone over that mark in five of his last six outings. His offensive line is fourth in sacks and adjusted sack rate this year, and they’re finding ways to run the ball as well, which takes more pressure off of Mahomes.

The Los Angeles Rams are just outside the top 10 in adjusted sack rate this season, but they haven’t been up to their usual standard we’ve seen from them. Aaron Donald has just five sacks on the season, which puts him on pace for fewer than 11 sacks for just the third time in his career. Throw in the struggles the Rams’ offense is likely to have, and Mahomes should be on the field a lot on Sunday.

Verdict: Start 'Em

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