Quarterback Starts/Sits for Week 11 - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups for Lineup Decisions

Week 11 is here. Your fantasy playoff push is upon you, and every win matters now more than ever. Each week could be the difference in making or missing the playoffs entirely. That's true for your fantasy teams along with your favorite NFL teams. There are a few teams at the top of each conference that are set up well for their playoff journeys, but there are a lot of teams still scrapping for positioning. Hopefully, you're more like the former than the latter in your leagues.

The column had a fair amount of success last week. Each of the three players that were in the start half of the column finished inside the top seven among quarterbacks, with Justin Fields and Patrick Mahomes claiming the top two spots at the position. In the sits category, we went just 1-of-3 overall. Taylor Heinicke struggled against the Philadelphia Eagles to give us our lone win there, but Aaron Rodgers dialed back the clock a bit to finish 10th on the week. Following the publishing of the article, Matt Ryan got the starting job back in Indy, and he took it right to a top five week. I’d say that 4-of-6 isn’t too shabby though.

We are approaching the end of our bye weeks, and the fantasy playoffs are right around the corner. We have four players on a bye this week with Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Geno Smith and Tom Brady all on the shelf. There's a strong chance that you could be starting one or more of those quarterbacks depending on your league, and, if you haven't locked up a playoff spot yet, it will be even more important for you to find a strong replacement to take their place. These are the weeks that you've spent all year building for, and you can't afford to falter at this stage of the game.

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Here Comes Trouble - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups

Philadelphia Eagles Pass Rush vs. Matt Ryan

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Matt Ryan regained his starting job, and he promptly took new head coach Jeff Saturday his first career NFL win. One week after Sam Ehlinger was sacked nine times, the Colts gave up just one sack to the opposing Las Vegas Raiders, but I think their fortunes change this week. They’ve given up 36 sacks on the year, which is tied for the league lead, and they’re fourth in the league in adjusted sack rate at 9.4 percent. Last week was the outlier rather than the rule.

The Eagles are coming off of their shakiest performance of the season in their loss to the Washington Commanders. They still rank sixth in the league in adjusted sack rate, and they’re tied for fourth overall with 29 sacks. The New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys are just behind them in the NFC East standings, and they’ll want to maintain their lead. They’re also tied with the Minnesota Vikings atop the conference, and they need to win to guarantee home field advantage.

Verdict: Sit 'Em

New Orleans Saints Pass Rush vs. Matthew Stafford

I’m not sure who will be quarterbacking the Los Angeles Rams this week, but, whether it’s Matthew Stafford or John Wolford, I’m not trying to put either one of them in my lineup. Wolford is the more mobile of the two quarterbacks, and he was sacked three times by an Arizona Cardinals defense that ranks 26th in adjusted sack rate. Three of the team’s 19 sacks came in that one game. Additionally, wideout Cooper Kupp is out for this game, and the team has been unable to generate any consistent offense without him.

Meanwhile, following a slow start to the season, the New Orleans Saints have started to get hot as of late. Last week, they took down Kenny Pickett six times, and they’ve generated 13 sacks in their last three games in total. They’re seventh in adjusted sack rate this season, and they’ve been getting healthier. With Kupp out, they can really get after whoever is under center this week.

Verdict: Sit ‘Em

Pittsburgh Steelers Pass Rush vs. Joe Burrow

This call could be almost entirely based on the result from Week 1 against the Cincinnati Bengals, but I’m ok with allowing that bias to stick in my mind for this one. The Bengals offensive line, despite offseason upgrades, still leaves a ton to be desired. They are third in the NFL with 32 sacks allowed with an adjusted sack rate of 9.1 percent which slots them at fifth.

The Pittsburgh Steelers got T.J. Watt back from his torn pectoral injury last week, and they sacked Andy Dalton just twice, but they held them to a total of 186 yards on the day. This Steelers’ defense has been banged up all season, but they showed earlier in the year that this is a matchup where they can win. Throw in the fact that wideout Ja’Marr Chase is out for this game with his own injury, and that makes life even more difficult for Burrow in an already tough matchup.

Verdict: Sit ‘Em

Easy on Sunday Morning - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups

Arizona Cardinals Pass Rush vs. Jimmy Garoppolo

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t been stellar this season, but he’s often been serviceable. He was quiet last week, although he found the end zone on a quarterback sneak to salvage his fantasy day. Since taking over as the full time starter. He’s thrown at least one touchdown in every game except last week while throwing for at least 200 yards in each game. He had thrown 2 or more touchdowns in four straight games prior to last week.

The Cardinals have just 19 sacks this season with an adjusted sack rate of 5.5. They just haven’t been able to generate consistent pressure this year, and it’s unlikely that we’ll see that change this week. San Francisco is in the top 10 in fewest sacks allowed, and their backfield just got even more dangerous than it already was with CMC in the lineup with the return of Elijah Mitchell. Jimmy doesn’t always have a crazy ceiling, but he’s set up for a strong game this week.

Verdict: Start 'Em

Carolina Panthers Pass Rush vs. Lamar Jackson

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson looked like he was on pace for another MVP season and a shiny new contract when the season started. However, over the last several weeks, he hasn’t quite shown the high ceiling we saw from him earlier in the year. After scoring 20 or more fantasy points in each of his first three games, he’s only scored more than 20 once in his last six games. 

However, the Carolina Panthers look like a strong get-right spot for him. Coming off of the bye, he and the team have had an extra week to get healthier. The Panthers sit just outside the bottom 10 in yards and passing touchdowns allowed, but they’re tied for 24th in sacks on the year. They also have the fifth-lowest sack rate this season. Teams drop back to pass on them a lot, and they aren’t being punished very often when they do so. Lamar can reannounce himself this week.

Verdict: Start ‘Em

Indianapolis Colts Pass Rush vs. Jalen Hurts

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has been one of the league’s most consistent performers in fantasy this season. He has 15.9 or more points in every game this season, and he’s cleared the 20-point threshold in all but two games thus far. Hurts threw for under 200 yards last week for just the second time all season, but his offensive line remains one of the league’s best. Despite ranking fourth in the NFL in the number of blitzes they’ve seen, they’re 15th in pressure rate. This is middle of the pack, but, when factoring in that heavy blitz rate, it gives them a bump.

The Colts are just barely in the top half of the league when it comes to sacks and sack rate, but they still leave a lot to be desired in that area. Most of the quarterbacks they’ve gotten a good number of sacks on this season have been guys that are stationary and in the pocket a lot. That isn’t the case with Hurts. He can scramble and hurt you with his legs or with his arm. I think Hurts is in a great spot this week.

Verdict: Start 'Em

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