Quarterback Sleepers and Draft Targets

Each year it seems like a new quarterback has a career season, and it's usually because they throw touchdowns at an alarming rate that year. These same quarterbacks are normally drafted aggressively the year following their breakout, and often times fantasy managers are left disappointed because they didn't match the output from the prior year. Over the last few seasons, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have been getting drafted within the top-40 of fantasy drafts, and in 2021 we can add Josh Allen to that list with an ADP of 38. Chasing 2020's points is never ideal as touchdowns can be fluky, meaning it's normally smarter to take a shot on finding the next quarterback that may break out than pay a hefty price for last year's stud.

Over the last few years, I've found it to be difficult to recover in fantasy drafts after taking a guy like Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson within the first two rounds of a draft. The stud running backs and receivers simply dry up if you take one of these high-end quarterbacks and depth becomes a problem, especially at running back. Instead of targeting stud quarterbacks in drafts, it makes more sense to evaluate value at the quarterback position relative to the remaining player pool and strike when the value is hot. This strategy tends to work out better than going into a draft thinking you need to draft a stud quarterback. In 2020, Russell Wilson was the sixth QB off the board and had an ADP of 63 which was right around guys like Stefon Diggs, David Montgomery and Tyler Boyd. If you had waited on quarterback and drafted Josh Allen, who was the 10th QB off the board in drafts with an ADP of 91, or Joe Burrow who was QB-18 in drafts last year, then you would have been able to solidify the running back and receiver positions while still having a high-end quarterback on your fantasy team.

Here is a look at five quarterbacks that I've identified as targets at their current ADP which is based off July 2021-date from NFFC. These quarterbacks present solid value at their ADP relative to other players being selected near them.

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Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

ADP: 51, QB-5

Dak Prescott was on a blistering pace in 2020 before breaking his ankle and missing a majority of the season. Through the first five games of 2020, Prescott was averaging 27.8 fantasy points-per-game which had him on pace to be the No. 1 QB on the season. Prescott is currently being drafted as QB-5, after other high-end options such as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson. When quarterbacks like Mahomes and Jackson are typically drafted, there's usually high-end talent at wide receiver and running back still on the board, such as J.K. Dobbins, Allen Robinson and D.J. Moore. As you get later into the 4th round, the high-end talent starts to dry up, meaning that's about when you need to start evaluating whether you want to take a true difference maker at QB like Prescott, or a player like Adam Thielen, Tyler Lockett or Kareem Hunt. While the aforementioned skill players are all viable fantasy starters, none of them are going to be true difference makers in your lineup. If I had to pick between the aforementioned four players or Prescott, I am going with Prescott every time and then try to draft a guy like AJ Dillon, Deebo Samuel or Jerry Jeudy in the subsequent rounds to solidify my lineup. The drop-off from Lockett to Samuel simply isn't as great as the drop-off from Prescott to Matthew Stafford or Ryan Tannehill so it makes sense to draft Prescott if the draft plays out according to ADP.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

ADP: 98, QB-13

Joe Burrow was averaging just under 18 fantasy points-per-game in 2020 before going down with a torn ACL in Week 10. While the Bengals defense should be better in 2021 because they get some players back from injury, it's still going to be a below-average unit, meaning Burrow will need to throw the ball a ton to keep pace with the opposition. The Bengals added Ja'Marr Chase in the draft who was Burrow's No. 1 receiver at LSU which makes the Bengals very difficult to defend on offense given they already have Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. At Burrow's current ADP, he's being taken right around guys like Antonio Brown, David Johnson, James Conner and Jarvis Landry. Around 100-picks into a draft, I would rather take a difference maker like Burrow than a running back with injury concerns or a wide receiver with a lot of competition for targets. Burrow is being taken as the QB-13 which is a nice spot because it means you can feel out the draft room and potentially hold off on drafting him until even later than his 9th round-ADP if most of the other managers in your league have already drafted a QB.

Daniel Jones, New York Giants

ADP: 155, QB-21

The Giants added Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney and Kyle Rudolph this offseason which should really help their third-year quarterback produce in 2021. Daniel Jones hasn't been great in his first two years in the NFL but he's never had a supporting cast quite like this. The Giants are also getting Nate Solder back on the offensive line who opted not to play in 2020 which should bolster the Giants pass protection. Year three is going to be make or break for Daniel Jones and I expect him to ascend given the talent around him and the fact that he will have a full offseason program unlike last year. Daniel Jones is one of those guys who could really blow up this year, and at his current ADP he's worth a shot. Jones starts out the season with a brutal matchup against Washington in Week 2, so it's possible he could be dropped after Week 2 before the Giants play Atlanta and their brutal defense in Week 3.

Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers

ADP: 177, QB-26

Sam Darnold has been an absolute disappointment through his first three seasons in the NFL, throwing for just 6.6 yards-per-attempt in his career. In 2020, Teddy Bridgewater was QB-19 on the season and he set career highs in yards, touchdowns and yards-per-attempt. If Joe Brady's play calling can make Bridgewater fantasy relevant, then it can certainly make Darnold fantasy relevant as well. Darnold will also have the best offensive weapons he's ever had in his career in Christian McCaffrey, Robby Anderson, DJ Moore and Terrace Marshall Jr. which bodes extremely well for him. The next three quarterbacks off the board after Darnold are Jameis Winston who may not even start for the Saints, Deshaun Watson who may not play at all in 2021 and Zach Wilson who is a wild-card as a rookie. Darnold is somebody you should look to draft if you miss out on the high-end guys and you end up streaming quarterbacks throughout the year.

Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers

ADP: 238, QB-33

Training camps are about to open up across the league over the next few days and once that happens we will get a chance to see how Trey Lance stacks up compared to Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo has been injured so often over the last few seasons it's easy to forget how effective he is when healthy, throwing for just under 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns in 2019. At this time, Lance is being drafted in the 13th round of 12-team drafts, while Garoppolo is being taken well after him, about 20 rounds deep. If Garoppolo is able to win this job in training camp and the 49ers are having success, he will be a high-end QB2 in a potent, well-schemed offense with George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk as weapons in the passing game. Simply put, drafting Jimmy G late in your draft could be a league-winning pick if he beats out Lance.