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Matt Donnelly's quarterback (QB) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Wild Card Weekend of 2025. His QB lineups advice for Wild Card Weekend fantasy football start/sit decisions.
Just because the regular season has concluded doesn't mean the fantasy football season is over. With DFS still going strong and, of course, playoff contests in full swing, there is still plenty to discuss and break down during the NFL's Wild Card Weekend.
This weekend we will be looking at those Wildcard card matchups and breaking down which quarterbacks are worthy of start status and which should remain out of your fantasy lineups. While Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson aren't officially on this week's list, you are starting the MVP candidates no matter what. As of Tuesday morning, you should also monitor the injury status of Jalen Hurts, who remains in the NFL's concussion protocol.
We have the Chargers at Houston, Denver visiting Buffalo, and the Ravens hosting the Steelers in the AFC. In the NFC, Philadelphia welcomes Jordan Love and the Packers, Tampa Bay hosts Washington, and to conclude the first round of the playoffs, the Minnesota Vikings head to Los Angeles to take on the Rams. To help fantasy managers with those difficult start and sit questions at the quarterback position with our Wild Card Weekend starts and sits.
Wild Card Weekend Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Jayden Daniels - QB, Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The pass defense was a no-show in a game the Tampa Bay Buccaneers needed to win to advance to the playoffs. Spencer Rattler threw for 240 yards and a touchdown pass to Dante Pettis, who I am sure not many remembered was still in the league.
The Buccaneer's defense has accommodated opposing signal callers for much of the season. Tampa Bay has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position, 19.84 per contest, and has surrendered 4,447 passing, the third-most, along with 27 touchdown passes.
This isn't the first meeting between the Buccaneers and Daniels. Back in Week 1, Daniels made his NFL debut, completing 17 of 24 passes for 184 yards while scoring a pair of touchdowns and accumulating 88 yards on the ground on his 16 rushing attempts.
Since then, Daniels has developed as a passer, finishing with 3,568 passing yards and 25 touchdowns. Daniels completed 69% of his passing attempts while still possessing the ability to tuck the ball and run, finishing with 891 rushing yards and six touchdowns.
Is Jayden Daniels having a better season than Patrick Mahomes? 😳 pic.twitter.com/QQJnEbDKXS
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) December 30, 2024
Sam Darnold - QB, Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams
Sam Darnold enjoyed a resurgence this season, finishing fifth in passing yards with 4,319 and touchdown passes with 35. Darnold's previous highs in passing yards and touchdowns were in 2019, when he threw for 3,024 yards and 19 touchdowns. In 2024, Darnold completed more than 66.2% of his passing attempts, marking the first time in his career that he would finish about 62%.
I know it's easy to dismiss Darnold after watching last week's game against the Lions, but this is still the same quarterback who topped both Jackson and Allen in passing yards, completion percentage, and, yes, wins.
Sam Darnold...MVP candidate??? pic.twitter.com/TVGMaMoCTS
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 30, 2024
The key to this one is protection. What Detroit did well was pressure Darnold, and the one major knock this season on Darnold has been that he has held onto the ball too long at times.
Los Angeles has a couple of players who can get after the quarterback; however, their 38 sacks this season ranks 21st in the NFL, and if they give Darnold too much time, he will hit the deep ball to both Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison who the Rams likely have no answer for as the backend has faltered at times.
This season, Los Angeles has allowed 4,101 passing yards and 29 passing touchdowns. For fantasy, that works out to 17.52 fantasy points per game.
Bo Nix - QB, Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
I can admit when I am wrong. I made fun of Nix when he was at Auburn. I figured he was nothing more than a system quarterback at Oregon. With the Broncos, I didn't see him as much of an upgrade over Russell Wilson. Turns out, I was wrong.
As good as Daniels has been as a rookie, Bo Nix has arguably, been just as good. Nix's 29 touchdown passes this season fell two shy of Justin Herbert's 2020 rookie record. Nix and Daniels are the only rookie quarterbacks in NFL history to finish the regular season with 10 or more victories, accounting for more than 4,000 total yards and 30-plus touchdowns.
Round of applause for Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels 👏👏 pic.twitter.com/BAQ7hCKlWj
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) January 6, 2025
Nix, this season, completed 66.3% of his 567 passing attempts. You read that right. Sean Payton trusted his rookie quarterback to throw 567 times, the sixth-most in the NFL. With 71 of those passes traveling more than 20 yards down the field, the second-most.
According to Next Gen Stats, Nix threw for an NFL-high 904 yards this season while on the run (eight-plus MPH). That's the fourth-highest total by a quarterback since 2016.
Usually, a matchup against the defense of the Bills would be daunting. However, during the four weeks between Week 15 and Week 18, Buffalo had allowed 1,191 passing yards and 10 passing touchdowns. Add that up, and that is 23.04 fantasy points per game, the third-most over that period.
Wild Card Weekend Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Russell Wilson - QB, Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
I mentioned Buffalo's struggles against the pass to close out the 2024 regular season. The same can not be said about the Ravens, who allowed a league-low 9.75 fantasy points per game between weeks 15-18. In that period, Baltimore allowed just 781 passing yards while coming away with more interceptions (five) than touchdowns (four).
On December 12, Wilson faced the Raven's defense and finished the contest with 217 passing yards, a pair of touchdowns, and an interception. There is a good chance that will be his fantasy ceiling this week. If you look at Wilson's last five games, that 217-yard passing performance was his best, as he has thrown for more than 200 yards just twice in that period.
Matthew Stafford - QB, Los Angeles Rams vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Los Angeles Rams are averaging 331.4 yards per game. Their 227.5 passing yards per game rank 10th in the NFL. However, Matthew Stafford has thrown for more than 200 yards just once over his last five contests.
Over those previous five games, Stafford has thrown for 962 yards, much of that coming against the Bills, when he threw for 320 yards and a pair of touchdowns. If you add that total up, Stafford has averaged just 192.4 passing yards per game.
On the other sideline, we have the Minnesota Vikings. A team that had allowed just 926 passing yards from Week 15 through Week 18 and yielded just 13.69 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position, the sixth-fewest. On the season, Minnesota allowed just 14.46 fantasy points per game, the fourth-fewest, forcing as many interceptions (24) and passing touchdowns allowed.
Jordan Love - QB, Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
Call it what you will, but Jordan Love regressed this season. After much hype and promise heading into the season, his early struggles in the passing game paved the way for the Packers to take a different direction with their offense.
The move to the run game benefited Love. Since Week 12, Love's 83.0 QBR is the highest in the NFL. Since Week 12, Love is averaging just 15.2 fantasy points per contest, with four of those six contests yielding less than 15 fantasy points.
It will be tough for this Packers offense to face the Eagles' defense this week. Philadelphia allowed 14.47 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position, the fifth-fewest thanks to the 13 interceptions they collected. The Eagles also have allowed 16.35 fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, the second-fewest.
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