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Matt Donnelly's quarterback (QB) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 16 of 2024. His QB lineups advice for Week 16 fantasy football start/sit decisions.
In Week 14, three quarterbacks posted 30 or more fantasy points. Heading into Monday Night Football and the conclusion of Week 15, Jared Goff (50), Lamar Jackson (45), Josh Allen (44), Baker Mayfield (35), Aaron Rodgers (35), and Jalen Hurts (31) all hit the mark as quarterbacks put on a show.
We got some incredible QB performances today ‼️
😈 Lamar Jackson: 335 total yds, 5 TDs
🦬 Josh Allen: 430 total yds, 4 TDs
🦁 Jared Goff: 494 passing yds, 5 TDs
🏴☠️ Baker Mayfield: 313 total yds, 4 TDs
🦅 Jalen Hurts: 335 total yds, 3 TDs
✈️ Aaron Rodgers: 334 total yds, 3 TDs pic.twitter.com/8eSCwel3qS— NFL (@NFL) December 16, 2024
We also saw Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa, Brock Purdy, and Jameis Winston fail to record double digits. We must avoid those fantasy landmines as we enter the fantasy football semi-finals. We are not only navigating poor performances, but fantasy managers could be looking for replacement options for Patrick Mahomes and Geno Smith, who were injured last week.
With that in mind, We are here to help fantasy managers with those difficult start and sit questions at the quarterback position with our Week 16 starts and sits.
Week 16 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Jared Goff - QB, Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Don't look now, but Jared Goff is currently the QB7 ahead of the Week 15 Monday Night Football contests, averaging 19.5 fantasy points per game. If you like following trends, the Lions' quarterback has been trending up for fantasy managers.
Over the last eight weeks, Goff has averaged 20.5 fantasy points, and over the previous four contests, Goff is the QB2, trailing only Josh Allen thanks to his 22.9 fantasy points per game average.
Against the Bills, Goff went off for more than 41 fantasy points, thanks in large part to his five passing touchdowns. Against the Bears, Goff and the Lions aren't likely to be trailing, but the matchup is more than favorable.
Before the Bears stepped on the field to face the Vikings, Chicago had allowed 19.74 fantasy points per game against and had surrendered 1,151 passing yards and seven touchdowns in those previous four contests.
GOFF TO AMON-RA. 66-YARD TD.
Not over in Detroit.
📺: #BUFvsDET on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/uHEKLWabzy— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024
It's ridiculous to think Goff has won a game this season after throwing five interceptions and lost a game after throwing five touchdown passes. Fun fact: Goff became the first player in NFL history to throw for more than 400 yards and five touchdowns while not throwing an interception in a loss.
Baker Mayfield - QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Another quarterback who comes into Week 16 on a heater is Buccaneers' signal-caller Baker Mayfield. In Week 15, Mayfield threw four touchdown passes and 288 passing yards in a 40-17 Bucs win over the Los Angeles Chargers.
With those four touchdown passes, Mayfield has now thrown 30 touchdown passes in a season for the first time. He still has three games remaining.
BAKER TO EVANS AGAIN!
📺: #TBvsLAC on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/Mr4qX65HvY— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024
Do you want to take it a step further? Here is a list of quarterbacks with 60 or more touchdowns since the start of last season. Mayfield and Goff. That's the list. In 100 career starts, Mayfield has tossed 159 career touchdown passes.
Only Peyton Manning (178), Matthew Stafford (178), Andrew Luck (171), and Carson Palmer (160) have thrown more touchdown passes as quarterback drafted first overall through 100 career games. It's not bad for a player once labeled as a bust.
Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff are the only QBs with 60 passing TDs over the last two regular seasons 🎯 https://t.co/075TKiINCm pic.twitter.com/wuu7v50oH3
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) December 16, 2024
Over Mayfield's last four games, the former Oklahoma Sooner has averaged 20.2 fantasy points per game (QB11) and accounted for 80.9 fantasy points. With a matchup against the Cowboys on the docket this week, don't expect a drop-off to occur.
Dallas, over their previous four contests, has allowed 1,079 passing yards and 20.17 fantasy points against the quarterback position. On the season, Dallas has surrendered 3,246 passing yards, the 10th-most.
Caleb Williams - QB, Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
If there was ever a put-up or shut-up week, this may be it for Caleb Williams. The noise continues to grow, but that comes with the territory of being the first overall selection—just ask Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield, and Jared Goff, all of whom have been labeled as busts at one point or another in their careers.
Caleb Williams has 8 TDs, 0 Ints, completing 65 percent of his passes for 1,014 yds in his last 5 games against 4 of the top coverage defenses in football.
all while being sacked 20 times during that stretch. Some people have got to relax.
trenches this off season. trenches
— Taylor Doll (@TayDoll1010xl) December 17, 2024
Since Week 5, Williams has produced 172.5 fantasy points, the 12th most among quarterbacks, thanks to a solid 17.2 fantasy points per game. Since Week 11, that average has jumped to 18.7 fantasy points in five contests. That's pretty impressive, considering he's been getting that David Carr/Sam Howell treatment, being sacked 58 times through 14 contests.
During the fantasy playoffs, it's essential to limit the negative plays, and Williams has gone 286 passes without throwing an interception; that's the longest active streak in the NFL. It also doesn't hurt when you face the Detroit Lions, whose current defense may have been the stunt doubles in the movie "The Replacements." On Tuesday, the Lions placed DT Alim McNeill (torn ACL), CB Carlton Davis (broken Jaw), and CB Khalil Dorsey (fractured leg) on season-ending IR, adding to that league-high 21 players on injured reserve.
With the injuries mounting up, especially on the defense, the Lions have been finding themselves trying to outscore their opponents in recent weeks. Over the last four weeks, Detroit has allowed a league-worst 23.74 fantasy points against and has allowed six passing touchdowns and 996 passing yards, the seventh-most. Williams will need to trade blows with Jared Goff if the Bears hope to make a game of this, and this Lion's defense could very well let that happen.
Week 16 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Russell Wilson - QB, Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
The last time Russell Wilson and the Steelers met the Baltimore Ravens, Wilson wasn't exactly lighting up the stat sheet. Wilson completed 23 of 36 passing attempts in mid-November, adding up to only 205 passing yards and an interception. Further compounding the trust issues is that Wilson is coming off a lousy performance a week ago.
Against the Eagles, Wilson would complete 14 of his 22 attempts for 128 yards. It's difficult to create offense when your top playmaker, George Pickens, is out of the lineup. Pickens' status for Week 16 is still unknown after suffering that Grade 2 hamstring strain. However, you have to figure if Pickens were to miss another contest or be limited, then Wilson's fantasy prospects are to take a hit once again.
It also won't help if Wilson's post-game press conference is longer than the Steelers' second-half time possession like it was last week. Yes, someone tracked this. Wilson's press conference came in around 7:36, while the Steelers possessed the ball for 5:50 in the second half versus the Eagles.
Bryce Young - QB, Carolina Panthers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Let's start by saying that Bryce Young has played much better lately and has become a viable option in Superflex leagues, averaging 15.1 fantasy points per game since Week 8. Young has flashed at times, and it is great to see him smiling on the field once again.
BRYCE YOUNG TO Jalen Coker. 83-YARD TD.
📺: #DALvsCAR on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/9DdQnhGIEP— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024
That said, this week, Young faces a Cardinals defense that has allowed just 722 passing yards, the 10th fewest, and four touchdowns over the last four weeks.
More alarming for those considering starting Young this week is that the Cardinals have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position over the last four weeks, conceding just 15.09 fantasy points per game.
I'm all about a good redemption story. I hope that at this time next year, Young's name is mentioned along with Sam Darnold, Goff, and Mayfield as quarterbacks who were once deemed lost causes and turned into elite fantasy options.
Justin Herbert - QB, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
This season, Justin Herbert has completed 63.9% of his passes, thrown for 2,959 yards, tossed 16 touchdown passes, and thrown just two interceptions through 14 contests.
Last Sunday, Herbert became the third youngest quarterback to throw for 20,000 yards, and as impressive as that sounds, his 0.8% interception rate is on another level. Before the game against the Bucs, Herbert had gone 11 straight games between interceptions, tying Tom Brady's mark from 2010.
As good as Herbert has been, he faces a daunting task this week. The Denver Broncos come into this contest leading the NFL with 49 sacks, four more than the next closest team (Houston).
Denver has also forced 14 interceptions and recovered nine fumbles for a total of 23 takeaways, the sixth-most. Over 14 contests, the 14.57 fantasy points against ranks sixth in the NFL, further limiting Herbert's ceiling.
The last time the teams met, Herbert completed 21 of 34 attempts for 237 passing yards and a touchdown, finishing with 13.7 fantasy points. That stat line is more than on the table once again this week, so I suggest you fade Herbert in your fantasy football semi-final matchups.
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