Quarterback Matchups to Target in Week 15 - Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Aaron Rodgers

It's Week 15, and in this piece, we'll explore four quarterbacks that we believe present good value in Daily Fantasy sports. Aggregating data about their performance this season, injuries on both sides of the ball, overall matchups, and even some position-specific matchups can drive good decision-making when picking your DFS players.

The quarterback position is notoriously difficult to predict, and sometimes it can feel like luck drives everything. To some degree, it does, because only hindsight can be 20/20. It's impossible to predict injuries that could happen during the game, sometimes offenses or defenses just aren't in sync, and it can even be difficult to predict how injuries will change the game flow before the first snap starts.

We'll do our best to justify each pick, though. We think these guys have better chances than most of providing great value at their cash prices.

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Tua Tagovailoa ($6,100 DK, $8,300 FD)

Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans

Asterisk here because we like his value much better on DraftKings. He's overpriced on FanDuel, so we don't recommend getting him there. Tagovailoa will take on the Houston Texans, who just lost one of the best players in their secondary in safety Jalen Pitre (pectoral), who was placed on injured reserve with a torn pectoral muscle.

Jalen Pitre will miss the rest of the season with season ending surgery via @AaronWilson_NFL

What a year 3 it was for Pitre & I expect him to get a extension over this offseason.

Played like one of the best nickels in the NFL in his first year at the position.

Speedy recovery… pic.twitter.com/ZPKtD9tAMh

— Jacob (@Stroud4MVP) December 11, 2024

It's a big loss for the Texans, and they'll have a bit harder time dealing with the Dolphins, who've somewhat returned to form in the last four weeks. Tagovailoa has thrown 11 touchdowns in the last four games, and the offense appears to be building chemistry after a weak start to the season.

Miami has a nice array of weapons with wide receivers Tyreek Hill (wrist) and Jaylen Waddle (hamstring), tight end Jonnu Smith, and running back De'Von Achane. Hill practiced in full on Friday and Waddle was removed from the injury report, so they're both likely to be good to go.

The Green Bay Packers and New York Jets defenses that the former Alabama QB faced in his last two contests were tough units, but he threw for over 330 yards and two touchdowns in each. He now has 17 pass TDs to just four picks on the season. Were it not for his concussion in Week 2, he could be having one of the most efficient seasons of his career.

LEGENDARY: #Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is the 1ST PLAYER IN #NFL HISTORY with at least 40 pass attempts, 300 passing yards, and zero interceptions in 3 consecutive games.

🤯

Tua has been elite this season. pic.twitter.com/1M7NB6x5JF

— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) December 12, 2024

Tagovaila has been attempting a ton of passes in recent weeks, partially because the run game has mostly disappeared. The losses of offensive guard Robert Hunt and center Connor Williams in the offseason turned what was one of the best running teams in the league into one of the worst.

The OL doesn't get much movement up front on run plays, and Miami is passing the ball a ridiculous 71.1% of the time. We don't anticipate there being much room for the backs to run this game, and we expect Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel to adjust by calling plenty of pass plays. And hopefully, the TE Smith gets more involved.

Justin Herbert ($5,900 DK, $7,500 FD)

L.A. Chargers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert hasn't played quite as well in recent weeks, in part due to injury and in part due to wide receiver Ladd McConkey (knee/shoulder) not playing in Week 14. McConkey is more likely to play on Sunday, and if he's able to take the field, we love Herbert this week.

This is a largely matchup-driven pick. The Bucs have been very bad against quarterbacks and receivers all season. The secondary is now absolutely decimated by injuries. Starting strong safety Mike Edwards (hamstring) and free safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (knee) have both been declared "OUT". Strong safety and key contributor Jordan Whitehead (pectoral) is languishing on injured reserve.

Here’s your final injury report for Bucs and Chargers. No new injuries today, and encouraging that Izien and Irving are questionable and not listed as doubtful. pic.twitter.com/eHVBJRkF6s

— Greg Auman (@gregauman) December 13, 2024

TB is trotting out a group missing a ton of players. They'll be lacking depth and starting-caliber play on a pass defense that's not been very good with all their starters healthy anyway. This is the perfect opportunity for a bounce-back game for Herbie. LAC's WR group isn't great, but that's priced into his value.

The lowest (best) Int% in NFL History
(min. 2,000 pass attempts):

1. Aaron Rodgers (1.4%)
2. Justin Herbert (1.5%)
3. Tom Brady (1.8%)
4. Joe Burrow (1.8%) pic.twitter.com/M5QDBnWeuM

— Ryan DePaul (@RyanDePaul) December 11, 2024

He's often maligned for what people perceive as poor play, but a lack of roster talent around him (before this year, the offensive line, this year, the pass-catching group) has always held him back. Injuries have been a factor earlier in the season. And the Bucs have a high-powered offense, which is relevant.

Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Liam Coen has been fantastic this year and has been able to lead one of the league's best offenses despite injuries to key players. The Chargers have a solid defense, but TB has done well even against good units. And the injury to running back J.K. Dobbins (knee) is very impactful here.

Los Angeles has had next to no success running the ball without Dobbins. Backup RBs Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal have made very little impact. We could see a ton of dropbacks and pass plays from the Chargers, which helps Herbert's value.

Aaron Rodgers ($5,400 DK, $7,100 FD)

New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars

40-year-old Rodgers (hamstring, knee, ankle)... yeah, that's a lot of injuries. But he's supposedly the healthiest he's been all year. We're sure every quarterback in their late 30s and early 40s plays through a ton of injuries. That could explain his overall disappointing play this season.

But you shouldn't be afraid to zag when everyone chooses to zig. The quarterback position has a low floor and a lot of variability, and the negatives are priced in. You can afford to get better players at other positions if you get a low-priced QB. Value is important.

95% of other NFL quarterbacks, in history, who attempt this pass would’ve thrown a 97 yard interception TD.

Aaron Rodgers simply throws another TD.

This dude is greatness personified. #Jets pic.twitter.com/HLbNLyGIjd

— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) September 20, 2024

The Jets offensive line has played poorly this year. The play-calling has been bad. There's been coaching turnover. Running back Breece Hall (knee) has likely been battling through injury all season. There are multiple reasons why this team is bad, but it's important to remember that they have a talented roster.

They got back wide receiver Allen Lazard from a chest injury and now boast a WR group including Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson. All three have shown flashes of excellent play, though consistency has been an issue. But they get a dream matchup against one of the worst pass defenses ever.

#Jaguars Offense:
- Bottom 5 in yards per game
- Bottom 7 in rushing
- Bottom 7 in points scored
- Bottom 8 in turnovers given away#Jaguars Defense:
- 32nd in yards surrendered
- 31st in passing yards per game
- Bottom 5 in points surrendered
- 32nd in takeaways

*after week 14 pic.twitter.com/LLJvOdUxXo

— 𝕋𝕣𝕒𝕧𝕚𝕤 🅓. ℍ𝕠𝕝𝕞𝕖𝕤 (@TravisDHolmes) December 11, 2024

They're hideously disgusting in coverage. We always like the matchup of elite talent against horrible competition. And the Jags shut down their starting quarterback, Trevor Lawrence (shoulder, concussion), and tight end Evan Engram (shoulder) for the season, so they may have just embraced the tank at this point.

We don't expect run-heavy gameplay from the Jets. Hall is dealing with a knee issue, and Rodgers is known for calling audibles to switch to pass plays, anyway. He also loves his goal-line pass plays.

Aidan O'Connell ($7,200 DK, $8,100 FD)

Las Vegas Raiders @ Atlanta Falcons

The asterisk here is because he may not play in the game at all. O'Connell (knee) is dealing with a bone bruise, but if he's able to suit up, his rock-bottom price makes him a solid play. The best thing about AOC in Week 15 is that he'll be facing an Atlanta Falcons pass defense that is absolutely terrible.

Dee Alford’s ball tracking rating just took a massive hit pic.twitter.com/WSTkHfTnfz

— ThatsGoodSports (@BrandonPerna) December 8, 2024

The above clip sums up how it's gone for ATL's defense. Their D/ST did put up 13 points against the Los Angeles Chargers, but that team has absolutely no WR corps outside of McConkey, who was battling through knee and shoulder injuries and still caught nine of his 12 targets for 117 yards.

It's important to see the forest for the trees here. The loss of running back J.K. Dobbins has decimated the Chargers offense. The Falcons have allowed over 250 passing yards per game this season, ranking as the second-worst in the league in that category. They haven't held a team to under 300 total offensive yards since Week 1, other than LA's injured group.

What a throw by Aidan O'Connell 😤#LVvsKC on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/3UW5MNjm3n

— NFL (@NFL) November 29, 2024

There's some risk involved here since he doesn't play until Monday. If he doesn't play, though, you can just swap in backup Desmond Ridder. The funny part is that the Falcons' defense is so bad that this might not even be a terrible outcome. We expect wide receiver, Jakobi Meyers and tight end Brock Bowers to get open early and often.

It helps that the Falcons suck at getting pressure as well. They sacked quarterback Justin Herbert five times in Week 13, yet they have just 19 sacks on the season, which is five less than the next worst. There's a significant gap there -- 10 teams have 24-29 sacks.

Picking AOC will allow you to get better players at other positions. We don't anticipate him (or Ridder) being under a ton of pressure on Monday.

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!

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