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The NASCAR Cup Series is in Atlanta this weekend for the Quaker State 400. This is the first race of the playoffs and it should be a chaotic start to the postseason at this drafting-focused track.
Back in February, Daniel Suarez earned a surprise victory here, which ultimately was the only reason the No. 99 car made the playoffs. Any of the 16 playoff drivers could end up winning this race, or someone out of the picture could get the upset.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for the Quaker State 400 on DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 9/8/2024 at 3:09 p.m. EDT. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on X at @juscarts.
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Brad Keselowski
Starts 19th - DK: $10.3K, FD: $13.0K
Strategy-wise, my main focus is on place differential this weekend, with drivers who start outside the top 15. Half of the top 10 in the race here earlier this year started that deep, including Daniel Suarez winning from 23rd.
This makes Brad Keselowski a strong play as he starts 19th. He crashed out of the race here earlier this season, but he performed really well here in 2023. In the spring race, Brad K led 47 laps and finished second. In the fall, he led 19 and finished sixth.
Keselowski can get a little too aggressive at times at drafting tracks, but that also works in his favor at times as well. We're betting on the latter on Sunday.
Denny Hamlin
Starts 38th - DK: $10.0K, FD: $12.5K
Huge chalk here, but sometimes you just have to play the chalk, especially in H2H contests. After an issue with the car in qualifying, Hamlin will start this race back in 38th place.
Cause for concern? Denny Hamlin's qualifying run is nearly two seconds off the pace. 😳
📺 : #NASCARPlayoffs | USA Network pic.twitter.com/xQN81ONw11
— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) September 7, 2024
With how much movement a track like this has, Hamlin's starting spot won't really impact where he winds up by the end of the race. I mean, it could be in the sense that it's easier to get caught up in a wreck when you're in the middle of the field, but if Hamlin keeps the car clean, he should deliver major place differential points.
Chris Buescher
Starts 17th - DK: $9.0K, FD: $10.5K
Keselowski's RFK Racing teammate Chris Buescher just missed the playoffs after Chase Briscoe's surprise win at Darlington, but he still has 10 races to go out there and gun for victories.
Buescher led 39 laps in this race last year but ultimately finished just 15th. He was ninth at Atlanta earlier this season and has led at least one lap in three consecutive starts here. He was recently 10th at Daytona, another superspeedway track.
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Daniel Suarez
Starts 30th - DK: $7.5K, FD: $9.5K
First, this feels a little overpriced on FanDuel. Over there I would probably pivot to Bubba Wallace. Anyway, on to the analysis of Suarez.
Daniel Suarez on the three wide finish at Atlanta and how he almost thought he lost a chance to win when Cindric wouldn't push him past Blaney pic.twitter.com/peGnLAnIwu
— Matt Weaver (@MattWeaverRA) February 26, 2024
I don't necessarily think Suarez's performance here earlier this season means he's going to be good here again. It was one of just two top fives he's had all year as this car has struggled a lot of weeks in 2024. Still, his track history here is strong. In five races since the track was repaved and turned into this draft-centric version, Suarez has four finishes of sixth or better.
Suarez will start 30th on Sunday, so there are plenty of place differential points available for this No. 99 car.
Ty Gibbs
Starts 20th - DK: $7.3K, FD: $7.0K
Ty Gibbs hasn't managed to win his first Cup Series race yet, but he did earn an at-large spot for the playoffs this season. He has seven top fives and an average finish of 14.7 this year.
Now he heads to a track where he's run well. In three Cup Series starts at Atlanta, Gibbs has a pair of top 10s. He hasn't led laps here, but he's had an average running position in the top 20 in all three starts. If he can keep the car clean, he can gain 10-plus positions on Sunday.
Zane Smith
Starts 34th - DK: $5.4K, FD: $2.5K
For this final spot, you can really go several ways. The key is just to have a low-cost driver starting near the back. I wouldn't go down to the Cody Ware/B.J. McLeod/J.J. Yeley tier, but you can play Zane Smith, John Hunter Nemechek, or Carson Hocevar.
I'm highlighting Smith because he's the cheapest of those three, which is a good example of just how much salary space you can save this weekend. The optimal lineup usually uses up most of your cap space, but that isn't the case at Daytona, Talladega, and Atlanta.
Smith struggled here earlier this year, finishing 35th. He has an average finish of 13.0 in three Cup starts at Daytona, so he has shown he can run solidly on this kind of track.
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