PrizePicks NFL DFS Prop Picks - Patriots vs. Bills Monday Night Football

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2021 NFL season is alive and well and that means our new friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.

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PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game. The second game is known as Single Stat. For NFL, Single Stat consists of quarterback passing yards, running back rushing yards, and wide receiver receiving yards in which you determine if the player in question will go over or under their projected total. You can mix and match players from each type of game in your entry or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option. Today, we will look at some props for Week 13's Monday night contest between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills.

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NFL Single-Stat and Fantasy Score Totals

Before diving into some solid fantasy score totals this week, we must first cover the PrizePicks scoring format. The format is PPR, which stands for point per reception, meaning every reception is worth one point. Rushing and receiving touchdowns are worth six points and passing touchdowns are worth four points. Each rushing or receiving yard is worth .1, meaning every 10 yards of either is worth one point. Quarterback passing yards are worth .04, which means every 25 passing yards are worth one point. If you ever have questions, you can always click the "scoring chart" option above the player selections for each contest. Now let's get to some solid fantasy score props for this week.

Josh Allen over 229.5 passing yards - This is a low total on Allen, but it comes with good reason, sort of. The Patriots' pass defense has been great lately as they have only allowed an average of 109 passing yards per game over their previous three games, which ranks best in the league. That being said, they have not exactly faced tough quarterbacks in Ryan Tannehill (no A.J. Brown or Julio Jones), Matt Ryan (on a short week), and Baker Mayfield. While they did hold Justin Herbert to just 223 passing yards in Week 8, they gave up over 400 passing yards to Dak Prescott back in Week 6. This is a tough Bills offense that can sling it around pretty well and it is also a number Allen has gone over in four of his previous five games, so the over looks pretty solid here at home under the bright lights. UPDATE: It is extremely windy in Orchard Park with sustained winds hovering around 25mph. This has me very hesitant on the Josh Allen over 229.5 passing yards. 

Damien Harris over 45.5 rushing yards - The Pats are going to want to attempt to counteract the high-flying Bills offense by establishing the run early and often. Harris has hit this total in three of his previous five games and is also averaging nearly 15 carries per game over that span. The Bills have also struggled a bit against the run as they have allowed an average of over 108 rushing yards per game to backs over their previous three games, which is ranked in the bottom half of the league.

Rhamondre Stevenson over 38.5 rushing yards - The other half of the Patriots' backfield is Stevenson, and he should get plenty of action in this game as well. He has averaged nearly 12 carries per game over his previous five games and has gone over this total in four of his previous five games, but has also gone over in four straight games.

Other Recommendations: Josh Allen over 20.0 completions, Stefon Diggs over 5.0 receptions, Kendrick Bourne over 3.0 receptions, Damien Harris over 8.0 fantasy score

Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX

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