PrizePicks NBA DFS Prop Picks - Today's Over/Under Props for Sunday, April 30th

Welcome to our PrizePicks NBA DFS prop picks for Sunday, April 30th, 2023. The 2022-2023 NBA season is rolling along, and our friends over at PrizePicks still have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of.

PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.

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PrizePicks Over/Under DFS Props Contests

PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game.

The second game is known as Single Stat. For NBA, Single Stat consists of points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made, and free throws made, in which you determine if the player in question will go over or under their projected total.

You can mix and match players from different types of games in your entry, or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option.

NBA DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Today

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De'Aaron Fox OVER 49 Fantasy Score

To kickoff today's slate I'll be looking at De'Aaron Fox's fantasy score prop. Fox has been over this projection in four of his last five games, averaging 53.7 fantasy points during that span.

The Sacramento Kings face the Golden State Warriors for game seven of what has been an entertaining series, to say the least. Fox is the King's clear-cut star, and I expect him to come up big in an elimination game, just as in the previous game.

Fox is averaging 1.41 fantasy points per minute in his last five games, and today he should see 39+ minutes. This game should be high scoring and fast-paced, just like the previous games, which have created plenty more usage from Fox. In game six, Fox had a 25-percent usage rate. Expect Fox to keep the Kings in this game and potentially even advance to the next round.

Jimmy Butler UNDER 30.5 Points

Next, I'll be looking at Jimmy Butler's points prop. Butler has gone under this projection in two of his last five games, averaging 37.6 points during that span.

I understand it's playoff Jimmy, and trust me; if I miss this, I will never bet the under on Butler in the playoffs again. But looking at the numbers, Butler has never exceeded this projection in 16 of 16 games playing the Knicks in New York. The same way that Knicks coach, Tom Thibodeau, sent double teams at Donovan Mitchell is what I expect the game plan to be for Jimmy Butler.

The books have Butler to go under 29.5 points with -120 odds, giving us a one-point margin at 30.5. My projection model also supports this play, projecting Butler for 29.26 points. Let's hope the Knicks can keep things slow-paced and double-team Butler to slow him down.

Jalen Brunson OVER 11.5 1h Points

To finish things off  I'll be taking a look at Jalen Brunson's first-half points prop. Brunson has been over this prop in three of his last five games, averaging 12.2 points during that span.

Today, Julius Randle (ankle), will be sidelined, increasing Brunson's usage significantly. When Radnle doesn't play, Brunson's usage rate goes from 27.2 percent to 37.2 percent.

The books have Brunsons full game points prop at 26.5 with even odds, so the correct line for his first-half prop would be 13, giving us a one-and-a-half-point discount. Brunson should take many shots and carry the offensive load for the Knicks.

Other Recommendations:

• RJ Barrett OVER 30 Fantasy Score
• Malik Monk OVER 21.5 PR
• Sabonis UNDER 19.5 1h PRA

Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX

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