Preseason Heisman Watchlist - 2024 College Football Outlook

The Heisman field feels pretty wide open heading into the 2024 season, with several quarterbacks looking to break through the rest of the names and take the trophy.

Last year, LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels won the award after having preseason odds of +1100. That ranked behind only Caleb Williams and Drake Maye in last year's preseason odds and was tied with Michael Penix Jr.

Below are the five preseason favorites for the Heisman, with odds coming from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Dillon Gabriel - QB, Oregon - +750

After three seasons at UCF and two at Oklahoma, Dillon Gabriel is off to Oregon for his final collegiate season. Last season with the Sooners, Gabriel threw for 3,660 yards and 30 touchdowns.

Gabriel is a really good quarterback, but his Heisman case is almost more about the system he landed in than it is about Gabriel. Last season for the Ducks, Bo Nix completed 77.4% of his passes for 4,508 yards and 45 touchdowns. Nix was transformed at Oregon from a risky passer with a low completion percentage at Auburn into one of the most accurate passers ever in his final season in Eugene. If we take his Auburn time out of the equation, Nix ended up as the career Pac-12 leader in completion percentage.

If Nix could transform like that, what can this Oregon coaching staff do with a quarterback who is already fairly accurate? Gabriel completed 69.3% of his attempts last season for the Sooners. His skill plus the fact he landed in the perfect situation makes him the Heisman favorite.

Carson Beck - QB, Georgia - +800

Last season, Carson Beck got a chance to start for Georgia in his fourth season with the program. He responded with a solid season, completing 72.4% of his pass attempts for 3,941 yards and 24 touchdowns.

Throwback to Carson Beck’s clinic on 3rd Down conversions vs Tennessee last year

3rd and 7
3rd and 6
3rd and 5
3rd and 6
3rd and 12
3rd and 7
3rd and 3
3rd and 2

UGA was ranked 1st on 3rd down percentage last year and next closest team was 4 % behind

pic.twitter.com/EhFT7l2muP

— 704 Dawg (@FSFRecruits) August 10, 2024

It was an impressive debut for Beck, though it was overshadowed by a year that featured several strong performances by quarterback. But heading into 2024, the college football landscape has changed. Six quarterbacks finished in the top 10 of the Heisman voting last year, but only one of those players, Alabama's Jalen Milroe, returns in 2024. Contrast that to the 2022 Heisman race, where three QBs finished in the top 10 and returned to college the next season.

Beck is one of the preseason Heisman favorites because he's an elite-level pocket passer. He has a strong arm and can squeeze passes in wherever he needs to squeeze them. He'll be surrounded by many talented players in this Bulldogs offense, including running back Trevor Etienne and wide receiver Colbie Young.

Quinn Ewers - QB, Texas - +1000

Quinn Ewers entered the 2023 season with Heisman hype, but just couldn't quite get there as he completed 69.0% of his pass attempts for 3,479 yards and 22 touchdowns with six interceptions. The Horns made the playoffs last season but relied heavily on running back Jonathon Brooks to take the pressure off Ewers.

That's been the case since he arrived in Austin, as the Longhorns have always had elite production at running back. 2024 projected starter CJ Baxter is good, but he's not quite at the level of Brooks or Bijan Robinson, which means Texas is likely to rely more on Ewers in 2024.

The move to the SEC also gives Ewers some additional narrative help. The Big 12 was really good in 2023, but we all know that the SEC is talked up as the be-all, end-all of college conferences. Ewers leading the Longhorns to a season that looks like their 2023 season would get him more publicity and hype than it did last season. Fair or unfair, that opens up an additional avenue toward Heisman contention. There's a reason four of the last five Heisman winners are from the SEC and that the last Big 12 winner from a school other than Oklahoma was all the way back in 2011. (It's also worth noting that in Texas A&M's first year in the SEC in 2012, the Aggies' quarterback, Johnny Manziel, won the award.)

Jaxson Dart - QB, Ole Miss - +1400

In 2021, Jaxson Dart threw for 391 yards and four touchdowns in his first collegiate game for USC. The rest of his results that season were uneven, and the coaching change that brought Lincoln Riley and QB Caleb Williams to the Trojans led to Dart transferring to Ole Miss.

Ole Miss had its first day of training camp today. We'll have plenty of coverage on @WCBINEWS as the Rebels gear up for the 2024 season. Lane Kiffin's team is coming off the first 11-win season in program history.

Here's Jaxson Dart completing a pass to Juice Wells: pic.twitter.com/w22CyoWGpT

— Jon Sokoloff (@JonSokoloff) July 31, 2024

In his second season with the Rebels, Dart completed 65.1% of his pass attempts for 3,364 yards and 23 touchdowns. After tossing 11 picks in 2022, he threw just five of them last year.

Any quarterback playing under Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss should be viewed as a breakout candidate. Matt Corral finished seventh in the 2021 Heisman voting after throwing for 3,349 yards and 20 touchdowns, numbers that were slightly worse than Dart's 2023 numbers. If Dart can improve even a little on last year's numbers and Ole Miss has another double-digit win season, we should be talking about him as a Heisman contender late into the season.

Jalen Milroe - QB, Alabama - +1400

One of the biggest storylines entering the season will be how Alabama does in the post-Nick Saban world. Losing the GOAT head coach is an objectively bad thing for this program, but poaching Washington head coach Kalen DeBoer is about as good as the Tide could have possibly done as far as replacing Saban.

Last season, Jalen Milroe took over as the Alabama starting quarterback and posted solid numbers, completing 65.8% of his passes for 2,834 yards with 23 touchdowns and six interceptions. He also ran for 531 yards and 12 scores, ultimately finishing sixth in Heisman voting.

Honestly, Milroe being priced like this feels wrong. He's tied for the fourth-best odds to win the award, but he's the highest returning player from last year's voting and adds an element with his legs that many of the other top options in 2024 don't have. Were there times last year when Milroe felt a little shaky? Sure. But it feels like he's being undervalued because of the coaching change. If you're a betting person, throwing some money on Milroe feels like the move.

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