RADIO
The 2023-24 season has now tipped off, with a full slate of (mostly) cupcake games this week before some intriguing matchups in Week 2. To quote the great Jon Rothstein, It's time to "GRAB YOUR NITROGLYCERIN PILLS."
Everyone loves to talk about which teams are overrated or overhyped coming into the year (which we also did yesterday) but it's equally as fun to try to find those diamonds in the rough that could surprise.
Here we've identified a couple of teams that should exceed expectations relative to their preseason rankings, media polls, and general discussion around the industry.
Tennessee Volunteers
Preseason AP Poll: 9th
Preseason KenPom Ranking: 8th
It feels a bit odd to call a team “underrated” when they are 9th in the preseason poll but I am really high on the Volunteers this year. Rick Barnes has done a wonderful job as the head coach in Knoxville, achieving a top-five seed in the NCAA tournament for five consecutive years. That is no easy feat. However, the Vols haven’t made it past the Sweet 16 since 2010 even with these high-quality teams, which is starting to really frustrate some Tennessee fans. That unfortunate streak finally ends this year.
The core of their 2023 Sweet 16 team returns, and dynamic point guard Zakai Zeigler is nearly back to 100% after tearing his ACL in early February. He will play limited minutes in the opener but will be full go by the time conference play rolls around. Zeigler and senior Santiago Vescovi (12.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists) both find themselves on the preseason First-Team All-SEC, the only program in the league to have multiple players on that list. The burly guard/forward combo Josiah Jordan-James (10 points, 4.7 rebounds) is on the conference second-team and will be counted to anchor another elite defense.
Three key players depart in Olivier Nkamhoua (Michigan), Julian Philips (NBA), and Tyreke Key (graduation), but Barnes reloaded with a top-20 transfer forward in Dalton Knecht and two legit four-stars in Cameron Carr and JP Estrella.
If there’s one thing we can count on with Rick Barnes’ Tennessee squads it’s the defense. There’s absolutely no doubt the Vols will be one of the toughest teams to score on this upcoming year, as they have been top-five in adjusted defensive efficiency for three straight seasons. The question marks have always come on the offensive end, and I think they have just enough firepower to reach the final four for the first time in school history.
Colorado Buffaloes
Preseason AP Poll: N/A (Included in “Others Receiving Votes”)
Preseason KenPom Ranking: 28th
All the hoopla in Boulder has been centered around the Buffs’ football program with Deion Sanders coming to town, but the men’s basketball team is going to see the most success. Head coach Tad Boyle quietly heads into this 14th season as the leader of a Colorado program that has made the NCAA tournament five times in this time span, which will be six after this year.
Boyle returns Pac-12 Player of the Year candidate in senior forward Tristan da Silva (15.9 points and 4.8 rebounds) who will be the engine for this veteran-led squad. The Munich, Germany native is a matchup nightmare, can guard almost every position on the floor, and shot 39% from three last year. Also back is All-Pac-12 second-team guard KJ Simpson (15.9 points, 3.8 assists), who will run the show for Boyle. Simpson has his top three scorers in the backcourt returning to provide some assistance on the perimeter.
Eddie Lampkin, the mammoth human being who terrorized No. 1 seed Arizona in the 2022 tournament for 20 and 14 also joins the roster. He'll likely start at the five-spot. Perhaps the one player who can truly make this Colorado team reach their ceiling is 6-8 Cody Williams, a five-star small forward who is the highest-rated recruit to come to Boulder since 247sports started tracking this information in 2000. Williams is the younger brother of OKC star Jaylin Williams, and he’s got all the intangibles of his older brother with much more upside.
The Buffs have a great cast of returning players mixed in with an elite freshman that should have them competing for a Pac-12 title this year.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Preseason AP Poll: N/A (Included in “Others Receiving Votes”)
Preseason KenPom Ranking: 27th
Despite finishing dead last in the NCAA in three-point percentage (yes, literally 363/363 teams), the Bulldogs managed to sneak into the First Four and were a wide-open three away from winning an NCAA tournament game in Chris Jans' first season at the helm. How did they do it? By being a top-10 defensive team in the country and having an All-Conference first-teamer in forward Tolu Smith.
Jans returns his best player in Smith, along with all four other starters from a team that won 21 games a year ago. However, Smith is out with a foot injury for at least the first two months of the year, which is a major blow for the Bulldogs. It’s almost impossible to replace a player like Smith - a tenacious rebounder and great scorer on the low block. While that is unfortunate news, the Bulldogs have one of the oldest and most experienced rosters in the country with two seniors and three fifth-years in their starting five. That will be incredibly valuable when figuring out how to deal with the loss of Smith, especially in a deeper-than-usual Southeastern conference.
Of course, they will need to drastically improve on their atrocious three-point accuracy, and Marshall transfer Andrew Taylor is the perfect guy to help pick up the slack. The Corbin, KY native has knocked down over 200 threes in his four-year career thus far, averaging 20.2 points and 4.7 assists in 2022-23. Freshman Josh Hubbard comes in with some major scoring chops as well and should be a lightning rod off the bench for Jans. Both of these guys will be counted on to improve State’s 176th-ranked offense.
This team has a fairly cake non-conference schedule with Arizona State, Rutgers, and North Texas as their toughest opponents. If they are able to survive until conference play without Smith and improve their three-point shooting, this team could make some noise come March.
Florida Gators
Preseason AP Poll: N/A (Included in “Others Receiving Votes”)
Preseason KenPom Ranking: 39th
The supposed wunderkind Todd Golden was plucked from San Francisco this offseason to save a Florida program that has been treading water since Billy Donovan departed for the NBA in 2015. However, year one wasn’t all that successful. A below .500 record and eighth-place finish in the SEC culminated in an 18-point blowout loss to in-state rival UCF in the NIT. There is some warranted hope that Golden can put the Gators back on the basketball map, and it starts this year.
6-5 playmaker and popular breakout candidate Riley Kugel returns after a very promising freshman campaign. Golden will rely heavily on his talented combo guard to not only potentially lead the team in scoring but also create for others. Kugel struggled out of the gate but grew much more comfortable as the season wore on, hitting double digits in Florida’s last 10 games to close out the year. Dependable 3&D guy Will Richard returns for his junior season and will be one of the better shooters in the conference. Two elite transfers - Walter Clayton Jr. (Iona) and Zyon Pullin (UC Riverside) round out the backcourt and give Florida one of the top perimeter games in what could be the nation’s best conference.
The biggest question mark for this team will be replacing the all-conference center Collin Castleton, who has done everything for this Gators’ squad the past two seasons. Tyrese Samuel from Seton Hall is a formidable stretch-four who averaged 11 points in a tough Big East last year. He should see starter’s minutes, along with 7-1 center Micah Handlogten, who shot an absurd 66% from the field last year at Marshall and was top-30 in block percentage per KenPom. Aleks Szymczyk and Alex Condon are two lower-profile guys who should be able to provide some decent frontcourt depth.
I was a little hesitant to include Florida on this list given how tough the SEC is looking this year, but I really like a lot of the pieces that Golden has assembled. I’m most excited to see Clayton and Kugel work together. They may be one the most underrated backcourts in all of America.
Michigan Wolverines
Preseason AP Poll: N/A
Preseason KenPom Ranking: 44th
I’m not going to sugarcoat it. Last year was a disaster for the Wolverines. Michigan took a No. 22 preseason ranking, two first-round NBA prospects plus an All-American, and turned it into an eighth-place Big Ten finish and second-round NIT loss. The infamous Juwan Howard punch to Wisconsin head Coach Greg Gard ended up defining what was one of the more disappointing seasons in recent memory for Big Blue Nation.
There were a lot of issues with the Wolverines team last year, namely Juwan's top recruit son Jett using up too many possessions, conceding easy buckets, and lack of offensive flow. That should all be improved from a season ago and it starts with their two rising sophomores - Dug McDaniel and Tarris Reed. The former was forced into a starting point guard role when Princeton grad transfer Jaelin Llewellyn tore his ACL in early December. McDaniel did an admirable job running the team with the amount of mouths to feed on offense and gained a lot of valuable experience being thrown into the fire. Reed is a former top-35 recruit that only saw a handful of minutes backing up Dickinson last season, but he is one of the more physically imposing bigs in the conference at 6-10, 265lbs. Reed will improve the defense of the Wolverines, especially at the rim, and could be one of the most improved players in the entire country this coming year.
Juwan Howard also brings in transfer gem Olivier Nkamhoua from Tennessee who dropped 27 against Duke in last year’s NCAA tournament. He can play the Dickinson-lite role, albeit at the four, which should pair well with Reed in the frontcourt. I’m fairly high on both of these guys surpassing expectations. Nimari Burnett is a former five-star that comes over from Alabama and should start alongside McDaniel at the two-spot. Program guy Terrance Williams will provide his usual high-energy defense and timely buckets. The Wolverines also have some important bench pieces coming back to provide some depth - Will Tschetter, Jace Howard, and Youssef Khayat.
There’s zero doubt that the overall talent level of this 2023-24 squad pales in comparison to last season, but they will be a more cohesive unit. Michigan was picked to finish 11th in the Big Ten, which is by far the worst in Howard’s tenure. I’ll go out on a limb and say the Wolverines break the top seven or eight and sneak into the NCAA tournament as one of the “Last Four In.”
