X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Preseason Champ or Chump: Third Base

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Originally posted to Flickr as "Adrian Beltre") [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Third base is home to two of the trendiest "sleeper" picks this draft season, Kris Bryant and Miguel Sano. I put sleeper in quotes because they both need to hit their upsides to simply break even relative to their current draft day costs. This seems to happen every year with a few young players, but remember that there are more Dallas Mcphersons, Brandon Morrows and Yasiel Puigs than Mike Trouts.

I will not feature either of the young sluggers mentioned above in this column, as I already discussed them here. Instead, we'll look at a trio of midpriced options with comparable ADPs. Shall we begin?

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. Our rankings assistant tool combines all our staff's ranks in one place. You can easily filter and export all sorts of rankings and tiers - mixed leagues, points leagues, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty ranks, keeper values, and more.

 

Champ or Chump: Third Base

Kyle Seager (3B, SEA, ADP: 75.2)

Seager may be the ballplayer with the least amount of buzz in all of baseball. You rarely think of him, but his .266/.328/.451 line with 26 HR was a tremendous boon to his owners last season. He contributed a handful of steals (six) as well, but his 50% success rate and stolen base history suggest that he shouldn't be counted on for that.

Instead, count on Seager for strong power numbers. His FB% has exceeded 40% in every season of his MLB career. His HR/FB actually declined slightly to 12.1% last year, but it is still more than enough to carry him to consistent 25+ HR campaigns moving forward.

You can also count on him for a batting average that won't kill you. His average fell by two points relative to 2014 despite career bests in K% (14.3%) and LD% (24%). That is more than a little odd, but can be explained by his BABIP on line drives. He is usually a slightly above average line drive hitter whose liners sport a .686 BABIP. They increased in frequency last year, but their production declined to just .608. The increased line drives were not enough to make up for their unlucky productivity, causing a decline in overall BABIP from a career .288 figure to .278 last year.

The improved K% does not appear indicative of actual growth, as both his SwStr% (7.5%) and O-Swing% (29.9%) actually increased slightly in his career year. Still, they are strong enough to support an above average K%, like 2014's 18% figure. Expect a slightly plus .270ish batting average again next year.

Seager also figures to deliver counting stats in 2016. He generally occupies the 2-slot in Seattle's batting order (343 PAs last year), and hits fifth otherwise (282). This puts him in prime position to take advantage of a healthy Robinson Cano and the improved Seattle offense.

If he ever got traded, Seager would have a real breakout season as he has yet to master Safeco's spacious dimensions. Of his 26 dingers last season, 19 came on the road. This trend is also true of Seager's career line, as 60 of his 96 homers were struck outside of Seattle. It is difficult to imagine a shallow enough fantasy league for Seager to be in a platoon, but DFS players should be able to capitalize on this split.

Seager may be boring, but he delivers stereotypical 3B numbers in an era where relatively few third sackers actually deliver them. He won't win you any leagues, but his steady production sets the stage for those that can.

Verdict: Champ

 

Adrian Beltre (3B, TEX, ADP: 81)

Like Seager, you may not automatically think of Beltre when you think of elite players, but his numbers border on Hall worthy. His .287/.334/.453 with 18 HR last year would have been a career year for many, but represented a disappointment for Beltre. He's now 37 years old, and many have been quick to write him off this year.

That is a mistake - Beltre's tank is not empty. He suffered a thumb injury in June that curtailed his power production, leaving him homerless that month and compromised to a 9.1% HR/FB in July. His power remained above average before and after the injury, and his FB% never suffered. Beltre's 9.9% HR/FB, the second worst mark of his career, was mostly the result of playing through pain. While he may get hurt again, a healthy Beltre is still a 20+ HR threat.

His batting average was sunk by an extremely unlucky April, during which he sported a .203 BABIP. The primary culprit was a laughably low LD% of 13.2%. His BABIP exceeded .280 with a healthy LD% in every other month, indicating that the batting average monster is still alive. I'm not sure what happened in April, but it doesn't seem likely to happen again.

Any age-related decline would manifest itself in his plate discipline numbers, but they largely held steady despite the injury bug's bite. Beltre's 10.5% K% last season was actually slightly better than his 12.1% rate in 2014. His SwStr% increased slightly (from 7.3% to 7.6%) due to a decline in O-Contact% (79.4% to 75.4%), but in general only bad contact is made outside of the strike zone anyway. None of these numbers suggest aging hands unable to react in time to a fastball, suggesting instead that Beltre remains ahead of Father Time.

Beltre also remains surrounded by quality hitters in a deep lineup. He generally hits cleanup (133 games) or third (29) in the Texas order, providing him with abundant RBI and R opportunities. Arlington remains one of the best places to hit in baseball, and Beltre figures to take full advantage.

Beltre didn't have the best luck with injuries or line drives last season (.655 vs. .719 career), but everything indicates that it was only injury and luck, not age. I usually don't pay much attention to second half splits, but Beltre's .318/.376/.509 triple slash line after getting healthy last year convinces me to believe in a rebound. The choice between him and Seager is entirely team dependent, as Seager offers power to Beltre's batting average buffer. Either is a great selection at a weak position.

Verdict: Champ

 

Anthony Rendon (2B/3B, WAS, ADP: 90.6)

Rendon has a reputation for being injury prone that goes back to his college days. He was injured last year too, providing a justification for disappointing fantasy owners with a .264/.344/.363 triple slash line with just five homers and a steal last year. Assuming he finally stays healthy, he'll go back to 2014's level of production: .287/.351/.473 with 21 HR and 17 SB. Right?

Wrong! Rendon's persistent injuries have caused a one year fluke to be established as Rendon's baseline, simply because that one year served as the world's introduction to him. If he fails to reach it, blame injury and take him too early again the next year! It is time for this madness to stop.

Rendon made his professional debut in 2012, compiling 404 PAs across five different minor league teams. In roughly two thirds of a full season, he hit only six homers. That's a pace for around nine, if we don't adjust for the fact that some of them were off rookie league hurlers. He managed 13 dingers the next year over 570 PAs split between Double-A and the majors. Then, he spiked to 21 in 2014 before regressing to five in 355 PAs last year. Rendon is a 10+, not 20+, homer guy when healthy.

While we don't have advanced metrics for Rendon's minor league career, the MLB data also suggests 2014 as the outlier. While Rendon's 2014 HR/FB of 10.4% is low enough to be sustainable, his 6.2% mark last year and 7.2% figure in 2013 fit in more with his minor league production. His FB% also spiked to 39.6% in 2014 before dropping to 33.3% last year. Rendon is simply not a power hitter.

Staying on the subject of data sets that don't belong, which of these numbers is not like the others: 6, 2, 17, 1? The answer is 17, or more specifically the 17 bases Rendon managed to steal in 2014 against his totals during the rest of his professional career. The six shows some potential, but they all came at the lowest level of the minors. His two CS last year were almost the equal of his 2014 number of three, in half of the playing time and 10% of the attempts. Rendon is clearly not a base thief either.

Any upside Rendon has is batting average related, as he sports elite plate discipline (19.3% O-Swing%, 5.3% SwStr%) that was not represented by his only slightly better than average 19.7% K% last year. Average is a rate stat, however, so a full season of .300 is more valuable than a month of .330. Betting on Rendon helping your average is betting on him remaining healthy enough to compile the PAs for it to matter. Based on his history, is that a smart bet?

To conclude, Rendon has never shown power or speed in his professional career, save one magical season. His batting average could be plus but he needs health for it to matter. Rendon is basically the new Placido Polanco, a high average guy in good lineup spots eligible at weak positions. Polanco could stay healthy, however, and his draft day cost was never as high as Rendon's. Avoid.

Verdict: Chump

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nolan Arenado6 hours ago

Red Sox Emerge As Strong Candidate To Land Nolan Arenado
Christian Watson7 hours ago

Packers Confirm Torn ACL For Christian Watson
Ezekiel Elliott7 hours ago

Signing With Chargers
Jalen Johnson8 hours ago

Ruled Out For Tuesday
Bilal Coulibaly8 hours ago

Could Be Ready To Return Against Houston
Malcolm Brogdon8 hours ago

Will Not Play Tuesday
Jordan Poole8 hours ago

Uncertain Against Houston
Bub Carrington8 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Tuesday
Jalen Green8 hours ago

Questionable Against Washington
Tari Eason8 hours ago

Doubtful Tuesday Against The Wizards
Josh Richardson9 hours ago

Downgraded To Out
Lauri Markkanen9 hours ago

Could Return Tuesday Against Atlanta
Keyonte George9 hours ago

Ruled Out For Tuesday
John Collins9 hours ago

Out Tuesday Against Atlanta
Jordan Clarkson9 hours ago

Will Miss At Least Two Weeks
Yuki Kawamura9 hours ago

Available To Play Monday Against The Mavericks
Luke Kennard9 hours ago

Available To Play Monday
Desmond Bane10 hours ago

Downgraded To Out Against Dallas
Jalen Brunson10 hours ago

Cleared To Face Orlando
Karl-Anthony Towns10 hours ago

Won't Play On Monday
Michael Lorenzen10 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Kansas City
Luke Kennard10 hours ago

Available For Monday's Game
Andre Drummond10 hours ago

Unavailable Against Suns
Gavin Lux10 hours ago

Traded To Cincinnati
Deandre Ayton10 hours ago

Available On Monday
Ben Simmons10 hours ago

Won't Play On Monday
Kyler Murray11 hours ago

"100 Percent" Chance That Kyler Murray Will Start For Cardinals In 2025
Brock Purdy11 hours ago

Wants Contract Done Sooner Than Later
Christian McCaffrey11 hours ago

"Definitely Close" To Being Fully Recovered
Jayden Daniels11 hours ago

Commanders "Not Concerned" With Jayden Daniels' Leg Soreness
Amari Cooper11 hours ago

Bills Hopeful Amari Cooper Will Be Available In Wild-Card Round
Erik Haula11 hours ago

Expected To Miss "A Few Weeks"
Patrik Laine12 hours ago

Misses Third Consecutive Game
Adam Larsson12 hours ago

Available Monday
Dakota Joshua12 hours ago

Out Week-To-Week
Elias Pettersson12 hours ago

Remains Out On Monday
Quinn Hughes12 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision For Monday
Aaron Ekblad12 hours ago

Unlikely To Play On Monday
Chicago Bears13 hours ago

Bears Seek Permission To Interview Mike McCarthy For Head-Coaching Job
Jalen Hurts13 hours ago

Still In The Concussion Protocol
Anthony Richardson14 hours ago

Will Be Colts Starter In 2025
Luis Arraez14 hours ago

Yankees Talking With Padres About Luis Arraez
Las Vegas Raiders15 hours ago

Antonio Pierce Expects To Return As Raiders Head Coach
Chicago Bears15 hours ago

Chicago Requests Interview With Mike Kafka For Head-Coaching Job
Geno Smith16 hours ago

Expected To Return To Seattle
Christian Watson16 hours ago

Believed To Have Suffered A Torn ACL
Seattle Seahawks17 hours ago

Seahawks Fire Offensive Coordinator Ryan Grubb
Chicago Bears17 hours ago

Bears Formally Request To Interview Ben Johnson, Aaron Glenn For Head-Coaching Job
Zay Flowers17 hours ago

Considered Day-To-Day
Michael Pittman Jr.17 hours ago

Dealing With Fracture In His Back
Brian Thomas Jr.17 hours ago

Tops Century Mark In Loss To Colts
New England Patriots18 hours ago

Patriots Request To Interview Ben Johnson
New York Jets18 hours ago

Jets Request Interviews With Arthur Smith, Bobby Slowik, Joe Brady
Frank Vatrano21 hours ago

Nets Two Goals On Sunday Evening
Sebastian Aho21 hours ago

Leads Carolina To Victory With Three-Point Night
Bo Horvat22 hours ago

Scores Game-Winner On Sunday
Filip Chytil22 hours ago

Scores Twice On Sunday
Jake McCabe22 hours ago

Exits Early On Sunday
Philip Tomasino22 hours ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Kris Letang1 day ago

Returns To Penguins Lineup
William Carrier1 day ago

Misses Sunday's Game With A Lower-Body Injury
Aaron Ekblad1 day ago

Sits Out Sunday's Practice
Travis Hamonic1 day ago

To Miss Up To Four Weeks
Linus Ullmark1 day ago

Out Week-To-Week
Frank Vatrano1 day ago

Signs Three-Year Extension With Ducks
Clayton Kershaw2 days ago

Intends To Pitch In 2025, Expected To Return To Los Angeles
Thatcher Demko3 days ago

Joining Team For Five-Game Road Trip
Pyotr Kochetkov3 days ago

Starts Against Wild On Saturday
Charlie Morton3 days ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Baltimore
Pete Alonso4 days ago

Angels "Looking At" Pete Alonso
Xander Schauffele6 days ago

Hoping To Find Success Again At Majors In 2025
Chris Kirk6 days ago

Starts 2025 Defending The Sentry Title
Max Homa6 days ago

Hopes To Rebound After Disappointing 2024 Season
Nick Dunlap6 days ago

Looks To Build On Impressive Rookie Season
Collin Morikawa6 days ago

Heads To The Sentry After Excellent 2024 Season
PGA6 days ago

Sungjae Im Hoping To Start 2025 Season Strongly At The Sentry
Russell Henley6 days ago

Closes Out 2024 Season Strong
Jason Day6 days ago

Looks Ahead To 2025 Season At The Sentry
Akshay Bhatia6 days ago

To Repeat Last Year’s Sentry Performance?
Ludvig Aberg6 days ago

Returns To The Sentry
Jesús Luzardo6 days ago

Jesus Luzardo Feeling 100 Percent
Maverick McNealy6 days ago

Making First Career Start At Kapalua
Corey Conners6 days ago

Making Third Consecutive Start At Kapalua
Viktor Hovland6 days ago

A Gametime Decision For Year's First Event
Tony Finau6 days ago

Making Sixth Start At Kapalua After Rumor-Filled Offseason
Justin Thomas6 days ago

Looks To Get Off To Fast Start In 2025 At Kapalua

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Terry McLaurin - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Wild Card Weekend PPR Rankings for Fantasy Football: Puka Nacua, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Nico Collins, Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans

You might think fantasy football leagues are done until next September, but that is not the case! All sorts of new playoff league contests are kicking off this week, along with DFS contests, and our coverage will continue as always through the Super Bowl. If there's a fantasy or DFS contest to win, we'll have […]


Quentin Johnston - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Lineup Picks

Wild Card Weekend PPR FLEX Rankings for Fantasy Football: Jalen McMillan, DeVonta Smith, Quentin Johnston, Jaylen Warren, Jayden Reed, Amari Cooper

Traditional fantasy football leagues have come to an end, but there are still ways to win with playoff league and DFS contests starting this weekend. Our coverage at RotoBaller will continue as always through the Super Bowl. Like in the regular season, we're here to help you crush any contest or tournament you're interested in […]


James Cook - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Wild Card Weekend PPR Running Back Rankings for Fantasy Football: Bucky Irving, James Cook, J.K. Dobbins, Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, Jaylen Warren

Hopefully, you captured a fantasy football championship or had big DFS wins during the 2024 NFL regular season. However, whether you had plenty of success or struggled, there are more ways to compete during the NFL postseason! With Playoff league contests starting this week and DFS contests, our coverage will continue as always through the Super […]


Jordan Addison - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Wild Card Weekend PPR Wide Receiver Rankings for Fantasy Football: A.J. Brown, Nico Collins, Jordan Addison, Ladd McConkey, Cooper Kupp, Khalil Shakir

Running backs stole the show during the 2024 fantasy football season, but there were several wideouts who exceeded expectations and could make a difference in fantasy football playoff leagues. Our coverage for playoff leagues and DFS contests will continue throughout the Super Bowl. Let's kick things off with our Wild Card fantasy football PPR wide receiver […]


Pat Freiermuth - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Wild Card Weekend PPR Tight End Rankings for Fantasy Football: T.J. Hockenson, Zach Ertz, Cade Otton, Tucker Kraft, Dallas Goedert, Will Dissly

The NFL regular season and traditional fantasy football season might be over, but there are still ways to compete. Whether you have joined a playoff league over at the FFPC or are navigating rankings for DFS purposes, we have you covered. Like regular fantasy leagues, tight ends are always difficult to navigate. We've got you […]


Baker Mayfield - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Wild Card Weekend Quarterback Rankings for Fantasy Football: Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Justin Herbert

It's NFL playoff time for 14 franchises, and it's fantasy football playoff league time for fantasy managers still looking to compete! Whether you're scanning Wild Card rankings ahead of your playoff-league draft or are just looking for another source to build your DFS lineups, we have you covered. Let's dig into the Wild Card QB […]


Justin Tucker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Kicker Streamers

Wild Card Weekend Kicker Rankings for Fantasy Football: Justin Tucker, Chase McLaughlin, Tyler Bass, Jake Elliott, Will Reichard, Cameron Dicker

Sadly, the fantasy football regular season is over. However, if you're still itching to compete, RotoBaller will provide coverage for playoff leagues through the Super Bowl. To get things kicked off, find out where kickers such as Justin Tucker, Chase McLaughlin, Tyler Bass, Jake Elliott, Will Reichard, and Cameron Dicker are ranked for the Wild Card […]


Bills Defense - Von Miller IDP Rankings, D/ST Streamers, Fantasy Football Team Defense

Wild Card Weekend Team Defense Rankings for Fantasy Football: Ravens D/ST, Chargers D/ST, Bills D/ST, Eagles D/ST, Buccaneers D/ST, Rams D/ST

The 2024 fantasy football season flew by in a hurry, and as always, there were plenty of surprise breakouts and duds. With those leagues in the rearview mirror, it's time to turn our attention to fantasy football playoff leagues. RotoBaller will cover these setups through the Super Bowl with a special focus on FFPC leagues. […]


Will Levis - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

2025 NFL Draft Order: Where Every Team Picks in the 1st Round

While fans of 14 NFL franchises are looking forward to competing for the Super Bowl, the other 18 are set to begin grinding mock drafts to see who their team could take in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. It's never fun to miss the playoffs, but the idea of adding a high-end […]


Jordan Love - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Sunday Injury Report: Updates for Jordan Love, Zay Flowers, Christian Watson, More

Well, the 2024 fantasy football season is officially in the books. It feels like just yesterday we were discussing sleepers, breakouts, and busts as we eagerly awaited the start of the year. I’m always amazed at how fast the season goes. The injury report from this weekend was relatively small, but the injuries that occurred […]


Lamar Jackson - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

What Are Fantasy Football Playoff Leagues? How To Play, Join and Draft A Playoff League Team

The 2024 NFL regular season is over. After Week 18, there won't be any way to play more fantasy football, and managers will be forced to sit down and watch normal playoff football with absolutely nothing on the line... right? Not really! There are actually ways to play fantasy football throughout the playoffs. And we're […]


Jahmyr Gibbs - Fantasy Football, Rankings, Draft, Sleeper, DFS, Running Back

2025 NFL Playoffs Bracket: Predictions, Picks for the Entire NFL Postseason and Super Bowl LIX

The playoff matchups are finally written, and the exciting home stretch is upon us. It's been a thrilling 2024 regular season, but the postseason brings a special competitive edge to every snap. Several familiar faces and a few new ones are looking to dazzle in their first taste of the playoffs. Teams are hitting the […]


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL injury News

Biggest Fantasy Football Busts Of The Week - Fantasy Outlooks For Sam Darnold, Tyreek Hill, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, George Pickens, Jordan Addison, More

The 18th and final Sunday of the 2024 NFL regular season has come and gone. Hopefully, you woke up on Monday morning feeling very good about how your matchup went. However, this week's slate of games was certainly stress-inducing for many fantasy football managers. Part of that stress was caused by a group of players […]