Rick Lucks analyzes three popular draft targets at third base to see which players will perform and which will bust during the 2016 fantasy baseball season

Third base is home to two of the trendiest "sleeper" picks this draft season, Kris Bryant and Miguel Sano. I put sleeper in quotes because they both need to hit their upsides to simply break even relative to their current draft day costs. This seems to happen every year with a few young players, but remember that there are more Dallas Mcphersons, Brandon Morrows and Yasiel Puigs than Mike Trouts.

I will not feature either of the young sluggers mentioned above in this column, as I already discussed them here. Instead, we'll look at a trio of midpriced options with comparable ADPs. Shall we begin?

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Champ or Chump: Third Base

Kyle Seager (3B, SEA, ADP: 75.2)

Seager may be the ballplayer with the least amount of buzz in all of baseball. You rarely think of him, but his .266/.328/.451 line with 26 HR was a tremendous boon to his owners last season. He contributed a handful of steals (six) as well, but his 50% success rate and stolen base history suggest that he shouldn't be counted on for that.

Instead, count on Seager for strong power numbers. His FB% has exceeded 40% in every season of his MLB career. His HR/FB actually declined slightly to 12.1% last year, but it is still more than enough to carry him to consistent 25+ HR campaigns moving forward.

You can also count on him for a batting average that won't kill you. His average fell by two points relative to 2014 despite career bests in K% (14.3%) and LD% (24%). That is more than a little odd, but can be explained by his BABIP on line drives. He is usually a slightly above average line drive hitter whose liners sport a .686 BABIP. They increased in frequency last year, but their production declined to just .608. The increased line drives were not enough to make up for their unlucky productivity, causing a decline in overall BABIP from a career .288 figure to .278 last year.

The improved K% does not appear indicative of actual growth, as both his SwStr% (7.5%) and O-Swing% (29.9%) actually increased slightly in his career year. Still, they are strong enough to support an above average K%, like 2014's 18% figure. Expect a slightly plus .270ish batting average again next year.

Seager also figures to deliver counting stats in 2016. He generally occupies the 2-slot in Seattle's batting order (343 PAs last year), and hits fifth otherwise (282). This puts him in prime position to take advantage of a healthy Robinson Cano and the improved Seattle offense.

If he ever got traded, Seager would have a real breakout season as he has yet to master Safeco's spacious dimensions. Of his 26 dingers last season, 19 came on the road. This trend is also true of Seager's career line, as 60 of his 96 homers were struck outside of Seattle. It is difficult to imagine a shallow enough fantasy league for Seager to be in a platoon, but DFS players should be able to capitalize on this split.

Seager may be boring, but he delivers stereotypical 3B numbers in an era where relatively few third sackers actually deliver them. He won't win you any leagues, but his steady production sets the stage for those that can.

Verdict: Champ

Adrian Beltre (3B, TEX, ADP: 81)

Like Seager, you may not automatically think of Beltre when you think of elite players, but his numbers border on Hall worthy. His .287/.334/.453 with 18 HR last year would have been a career year for many, but represented a disappointment for Beltre. He's now 37 years old, and many have been quick to write him off this year.

That is a mistake - Beltre's tank is not empty. He suffered a thumb injury in June that curtailed his power production, leaving him homerless that month and compromised to a 9.1% HR/FB in July. His power remained above average before and after the injury, and his FB% never suffered. Beltre's 9.9% HR/FB, the second worst mark of his career, was mostly the result of playing through pain. While he may get hurt again, a healthy Beltre is still a 20+ HR threat.

His batting average was sunk by an extremely unlucky April, during which he sported a .203 BABIP. The primary culprit was a laughably low LD% of 13.2%. His BABIP exceeded .280 with a healthy LD% in every other month, indicating that the batting average monster is still alive. I'm not sure what happened in April, but it doesn't seem likely to happen again.

Any age-related decline would manifest itself in his plate discipline numbers, but they largely held steady despite the injury bug's bite. Beltre's 10.5% K% last season was actually slightly better than his 12.1% rate in 2014. His SwStr% increased slightly (from 7.3% to 7.6%) due to a decline in O-Contact% (79.4% to 75.4%), but in general only bad contact is made outside of the strike zone anyway. None of these numbers suggest aging hands unable to react in time to a fastball, suggesting instead that Beltre remains ahead of Father Time.

Beltre also remains surrounded by quality hitters in a deep lineup. He generally hits cleanup (133 games) or third (29) in the Texas order, providing him with abundant RBI and R opportunities. Arlington remains one of the best places to hit in baseball, and Beltre figures to take full advantage.

Beltre didn't have the best luck with injuries or line drives last season (.655 vs. .719 career), but everything indicates that it was only injury and luck, not age. I usually don't pay much attention to second half splits, but Beltre's .318/.376/.509 triple slash line after getting healthy last year convinces me to believe in a rebound. The choice between him and Seager is entirely team dependent, as Seager offers power to Beltre's batting average buffer. Either is a great selection at a weak position.

Verdict: Champ

Anthony Rendon (2B/3B, WAS, ADP: 90.6)

Rendon has a reputation for being injury prone that goes back to his college days. He was injured last year too, providing a justification for disappointing fantasy owners with a .264/.344/.363 triple slash line with just five homers and a steal last year. Assuming he finally stays healthy, he'll go back to 2014's level of production: .287/.351/.473 with 21 HR and 17 SB. Right?

Wrong! Rendon's persistent injuries have caused a one year fluke to be established as Rendon's baseline, simply because that one year served as the world's introduction to him. If he fails to reach it, blame injury and take him too early again the next year! It is time for this madness to stop.

Rendon made his professional debut in 2012, compiling 404 PAs across five different minor league teams. In roughly two thirds of a full season, he hit only six homers. That's a pace for around nine, if we don't adjust for the fact that some of them were off rookie league hurlers. He managed 13 dingers the next year over 570 PAs split between Double-A and the majors. Then, he spiked to 21 in 2014 before regressing to five in 355 PAs last year. Rendon is a 10+, not 20+, homer guy when healthy.

While we don't have advanced metrics for Rendon's minor league career, the MLB data also suggests 2014 as the outlier. While Rendon's 2014 HR/FB of 10.4% is low enough to be sustainable, his 6.2% mark last year and 7.2% figure in 2013 fit in more with his minor league production. His FB% also spiked to 39.6% in 2014 before dropping to 33.3% last year. Rendon is simply not a power hitter.

Staying on the subject of data sets that don't belong, which of these numbers is not like the others: 6, 2, 17, 1? The answer is 17, or more specifically the 17 bases Rendon managed to steal in 2014 against his totals during the rest of his professional career. The six shows some potential, but they all came at the lowest level of the minors. His two CS last year were almost the equal of his 2014 number of three, in half of the playing time and 10% of the attempts. Rendon is clearly not a base thief either.

Any upside Rendon has is batting average related, as he sports elite plate discipline (19.3% O-Swing%, 5.3% SwStr%) that was not represented by his only slightly better than average 19.7% K% last year. Average is a rate stat, however, so a full season of .300 is more valuable than a month of .330. Betting on Rendon helping your average is betting on him remaining healthy enough to compile the PAs for it to matter. Based on his history, is that a smart bet?

To conclude, Rendon has never shown power or speed in his professional career, save one magical season. His batting average could be plus but he needs health for it to matter. Rendon is basically the new Placido Polanco, a high average guy in good lineup spots eligible at weak positions. Polanco could stay healthy, however, and his draft day cost was never as high as Rendon's. Avoid.

Verdict: Chump

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