X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Preseason Champ or Chump: Outfield

I like to look at the outfield as the department store of fantasy baseball. Sluggers, speedsters, batting average and all around players are all available in abundance. Most leagues compensate for this by starting five OFers per team, but even then the OF-5 is better than a lot of shortstops or catchers.

While you don't want to field five lesser outfielders, the position isn't scarce either. If you consistently take the best guy available, you'll likely have enough outfielders to fill all of the slots - and maybe a utility slot as well!

Without further ado, lets take a closer look at a few outfield options.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. Our rankings assistant tool combines all our staff's ranks in one place. You can easily filter and export all sorts of rankings and tiers - mixed leagues, points leagues, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty ranks, keeper values, and more.

 

Yoenis Cespedes (OF, NYM, ADP: 44.4)

Cespedes has long been a competent fantasy slugger, but his .291/.328/.542 triple slash line with 35 HR and seven swipes put him on a whole new level in 2015. Based on his current ADP, fantasy owners believe in the elite production moving forward.

I'm skeptical. Cespedes posted a HR/FB of 18.6% last season, the highest mark of his career. For comparison, he has averaged 14.1% over his career. This HR/FB spike masked a precipitous decline in Cespedes's FB%, which reached 48% in 2014 only to regress to 37.9% last season. 37.9% is still a strong showing, but legitimate power breakouts generally do not involve 10% fewer fly balls.

Cespedes also hadn't posted a plus batting average since his rookie year. He received a number of favorable bounces in 2015, as both his line drives (.730 BABIP) and fly balls (.156) beat his career BABIPs of .705 and .132, respectively. In general, this is probably not sustainable.

The outfielder's LD% likely had more to do with the plus average, however. While Cespedes's 20.4% LD% seems sustainable at first glance, his career rate is significantly lower at 18.8%. The MLB average is 20.9%, but Cespedes has three years of data that suggest he cannot sustain that rate. I need to see it again before I throw out three years of data.

Cespedes's wild swinging tendencies also hurt his average while cratering his value in OBP leagues. His O-Swing% has increased in each of Cespedes's four MLB campaigns, reaching 39.1% last season. This is troubling not only for the obvious effects on his BB% (just 4.9% last year), but also because it is still trending in the wrong direction.

A below average 10.6% SwStr% and 78.3% Contact% do not support an average K% of 20.9%, so more strikeouts could be coming in 2016. The fact that he avoided them last year is due to a career best 67.7% O-Contact%, but only time will tell if the change is sustainable. It may not even be desirable, as pitches hit outside of the hitting zone typically favor the pitcher.

Cespedes is currently slotted in to an everyday CF role for 2016, despite a poor performance there in a limited 2015 sample (-4 DRS in 312 innings). This could lead to him losing PAs late in games to a defensive replacement such as Juan Lagares, or potentially a clubhouse crisis if he is forced to steal starts from Curtis Granderson or Michael Conforto.

Cespedes stole a few bags last year, but the five CS he also compiled should limit any expectations of speed production. He is playing for a contract thanks to an opt out clause after the season, but it is difficult to imagine his besting a career year. He likely stays with the Mets for more money than he's worth, a fate that can still be avoided by your fantasy team.

Verdict: Chump

 

Billy Hamilton (OF, CIN, ADP: 106.4)

Hamilton is easily one of the most polarizing options in fantasy baseball history. Some point to his dismal 2015 batting line of .226/.274/.289, and lack of minor league dominance, and see a bat that will never amount to anything. Others see 57 steals in just 454 PAs, and love the idea of locking up an entire category with one player. I figured he merited a closer examination.

Hamilton is very fast - no one doubts this fact. He twice stole over a hundred bases in the minors, so his 2014 success rate of 71% (56 for 79) was a bit disappointing. Hamilton fixed this problem in a big way last season, going 57 for 65 for a sparkling success rate of roughly 88%. Prior to last year, Hamilton's detractors could point to his poor success rate as evidence that he was not a MLB talent. Now, that argument is moot.

Only one question remains - can he hit? Last year's batting line was pathetic, but an overall BABIP of .264 may have had a lot to do with it. More specifically, a .233 BABIP on grounders seems way too low for a player with Hamilton's wheels. Speed doesn't automatically lead to ground ball base hits, but they should be expected considering his career .272 BABIP on grounders. More infield singles should come this year.

Hamilton was also hurt by his liner production last season. His line drives posted a BABIP of just .525, well short of both his own career average (.625) and the overall MLB average last year (.678). There is nowhere for this number to go besides up. This fact, combined with a slightly below average LD% (19.6% vs. 20.7% career), makes at least a return to a .250ish average likely.

Critics of Hamilton's batted ball profile point to a GB% (42.6%) that is not quite high enough to take advantage of his wheels. These same critics fail to point out that Hamilton significantly improved his IFFB% last season, cutting it from 13.2% in 2014 to 5.9% last year. This represents a step in the right direction, especially if Hamilton's stated understanding that he needs to hit more grounders amounts to anything.

Hamilton's plate discipline numbers suggest that he is not completely overwhelmed by MLB pitching. His 28% O-Swing% is actually very good, allowing Hamilton to draw walks at a league average rate despite most pitchers feeling they can challenge him with impunity. His SwStr% (7.2%) and Contact% (83.6%) are also better than the MLB average, and trending in the right direction to boot. If anything, Hamilton's 72.5% O-Contact% may be a little too high. Overall, he seems to have at least a clue in the batter's box.

There is also a weird narrative going around that the Reds may bench their super speedster if he starts out poorly. I see very little evidence for this. While the Reds should be rebuilding for a few years, their preference for MLB ready prospects with little upside over higher upside, longer term projects in the Todd Frazier deal suggests that the team thinks their rebuild will be quick. Considering the rest of the roster, 26 year old Hamilton has to be a factor in their internal calculus to reach that conclusion. He'll have some rope.

Hamilton will once again start the year out of the leadoff slot, offering runs upside in addition to dynamic speed. Even if he reverts to 2014 production, he should have no problem swiping 70 bags with his new success rate. Should he get better, or even luck into a few extra stolen base opportunities, the upside is tantalizing. Ninety or more steals are within the range of possible outcomes. That's worth a pick outside the top 100.

Verdict: Champ

 

Brett Gardner (OF, NYY, ADP: 138)

Gardner no longer steals 40 bases per season, but he still pilfered 20 to go with a .259/.343/.399 triple slash line and 16 dingers last year. He is always at the top of the powerful Yankees batting order, so he scores runs in bunches. Gardner contributes plus production in four of five roto categories, yet his ADP is 138. Why?

Gardner can still run, as evidenced by his strong 80% success rate in stolen bases last season. He also continues to run favorable BABIPs on ground balls, with a .263 mark last year. His overall BABIP of .312 was slightly below his career .319 average. The speed part of his game appears very sustainable.

His power seemed out of character going in to last season, but back to back seasons with upper-teens homers and exactly an 11% HR/FB suggest that he has learned league average power, at least in favorable Yankee Stadium (12 of 16 homers came at home). He lost some of his FB% last season (36.7% in 2014 to 33.9%), but it mostly manifested in a lower IFFB% (10.3% to 6.2%). 15 homers, 20 steals, a bunch of runs and a batting average that won't kill you should be treated as roto gold, not a draft day afterthought.

Fantasy owners in OBP formats can take advantage of Gardner's elite plate discipline. His 23.3% O-Swing% last year was outstanding. His SwStr% rose to a career worst 7%, but it was fueled mostly by a decline in O-Contact% (73.9% in 2014, 66.2% last year). By contrast, his 89.3% Z-Contact% (down slightly from 92.8%) indicated that he remains capable of handling anything in the zone. Contact outside of the zone is usually not ideal, and regardless a 7% SwStr% is still very strong.

The only reason for Gardner's under appreciation that I can think of is the arrival of Aaron Hicks, a young player with a similar skill set. However, Hicks can play all three outfield slots or DH. Jacoby Ellsbury has a massive injury history, Carlos Beltran is 39 and Alex Rodriguez is 41. All three are more likely to lose time to Hicks than Gardner, who remains one of the younger guys in pinstripes at age 32.

Guys that hit homers and steal bases are the stuff of every fantasy owner's dreams, and Gardner figures to do both at a discount. He might need Yankee Stadium to post power numbers, but it is probably too late for him to be traded. Buy.

Verdict: Champ

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Frank Vatrano1 hour ago

Nets Two On Sunday Evening
Sebastian Aho1 hour ago

Leads Carolina To Victory With Three-Point Night
Bo Horvat1 hour ago

Scores Game-Winner On Sunday
Filip Chytil1 hour ago

Scores Twice On Sunday
Jake McCabe2 hours ago

Exits Early On Sunday
Philip Tomasino2 hours ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Jahmyr Gibbs8 hours ago

Scores Four Touchdowns As Lions Claim Top Seed
Tyreek Hill8 hours ago

Played Through Torn Ligament In Wrist
Miami Dolphins8 hours ago

Dolphins Bringing Back Mike McDaniel, Chris Grier
David Montgomery8 hours ago

Completes Workout Ahead Of Playoffs
Courtland Sutton8 hours ago

Reaches 1,000 Yards, Scores In Week 18
Minnesota Vikings9 hours ago

Vikings Won't Trade Kevin O'Connell
Marvin Mims Jr.9 hours ago

Scores Two Touchdowns For Second Straight Week
Bo Nix9 hours ago

Saves His Best For Last To Get Broncos Into The Playoffs
Greg Dortch9 hours ago

Scores Two Touchdowns In Week 18
Karl-Anthony Towns10 hours ago

Questionable Versus Orlando
Trey Murphy III10 hours ago

Injured On Sunday Night
Ben Simmons10 hours ago

Might Miss Monday's Game
Quentin Johnston10 hours ago

Has A Career Game In Week 18
D'Angelo Russell10 hours ago

Considered Questionable Against The Pacers
Kyler Murray10 hours ago

Throws Season-High Four Touchdown Passes In Week 18
Justin Herbert10 hours ago

Has A Big Game In Week 18
Joel Embiid10 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report For Monday Night
Patrick Taylor Jr.11 hours ago

Goes Over 100 Yards In Week 18
Davante Adams11 hours ago

Finds The End Zone In Week 18 Win
Derek Carr11 hours ago

Looking Forward To Returning With Saints
Indianapolis Colts11 hours ago

Shane Steichen And Chris Ballard To Return In 2025
Aaron Rodgers11 hours ago

Throws Four TDs In Week 18 Win
Tyreek Hill12 hours ago

Done As A Dolphin?
Josh Downs12 hours ago

Productive On Large Target Share Sunday
Kayshon Boutte12 hours ago

Explodes Again Versus Buffalo
Geno Smith12 hours ago

Tosses Four Touchdowns In Statement Performance And Suffers Hip Injury
Tari Eason14 hours ago

Out On Sunday
Gabe Vincent14 hours ago

Remains Sidelined Versus Rockets
Anthony Davis14 hours ago

Cleared For Action Sunday
LeBron James14 hours ago

Good To Go Against Houston
Jonathan Kuminga14 hours ago

To Miss Time With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Stephen Curry15 hours ago

Available Sunday
Kris Letang15 hours ago

Returns To Penguins Lineup
William Carrier15 hours ago

Misses Sunday's Game With A Lower-Body Injury
Aaron Ekblad15 hours ago

Sits Out Sunday's Practice
Travis Hamonic15 hours ago

To Miss Up To Four Weeks
Bilal Coulibaly15 hours ago

Ruled Out Sunday Against New Orleans
Jordan Poole15 hours ago

Out Sunday Against New Orleans
Linus Ullmark15 hours ago

Out Week-To-Week
Dejounte Murray16 hours ago

Available Sunday In Washington
Frank Vatrano16 hours ago

Signs Three-Year Extension With Ducks
Brandon Miller16 hours ago

Will Be Back In Action On Sunday
LaMelo Ball16 hours ago

Will Play Sunday Against Cleveland
Karl-Anthony Towns16 hours ago

Avoids Serious Injury
Keegan Murray16 hours ago

Will Play On Sunday
De'Aaron Fox17 hours ago

Ruled Out On Sunday
Jordan Clarkson17 hours ago

Sitting Out On Sunday
John Collins17 hours ago

Unavailable On Sunday
Clayton Kershaw2 days ago

Intends To Pitch In 2025, Expected To Return To Los Angeles
Thatcher Demko2 days ago

Joining Team For Five-Game Road Trip
Pyotr Kochetkov2 days ago

Starts Against Wild On Saturday
Joseph Woll2 days ago

In Maple Leafs Net On Saturday
Scott Wedgewood2 days ago

Unavailable On Saturday
Jack Drury2 days ago

Back For Hurricanes Saturday
Auston Matthews2 days ago

Returns To Action On Saturday
Jordan Binnington2 days ago

Shuts Out Senators
Brandon Saad2 days ago

Ends Goal Drought With A Hat Trick
Mike Matheson2 days ago

Records Two Assists Friday
Charlie Morton3 days ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Baltimore
Pete Alonso4 days ago

Angels "Looking At" Pete Alonso
Xander Schauffele5 days ago

Hoping To Find Success Again At Majors In 2025
Chris Kirk5 days ago

Starts 2025 Defending The Sentry Title
Max Homa5 days ago

Hopes To Rebound After Disappointing 2024 Season
Nick Dunlap5 days ago

Looks To Build On Impressive Rookie Season
Collin Morikawa5 days ago

Heads To The Sentry After Excellent 2024 Season
PGA5 days ago

Sungjae Im Hoping To Start 2025 Season Strongly At The Sentry
Russell Henley5 days ago

Closes Out 2024 Season Strong
Jason Day5 days ago

Looks Ahead To 2025 Season At The Sentry
Akshay Bhatia5 days ago

To Repeat Last Year’s Sentry Performance?
Ludvig Aberg5 days ago

Returns To The Sentry
Jesús Luzardo5 days ago

Jesus Luzardo Feeling 100 Percent
Maverick McNealy5 days ago

Making First Career Start At Kapalua
Corey Conners5 days ago

Making Third Consecutive Start At Kapalua
Viktor Hovland5 days ago

A Gametime Decision For Year's First Event
Tony Finau5 days ago

Making Sixth Start At Kapalua After Rumor-Filled Offseason
Justin Thomas5 days ago

Looks To Get Off To Fast Start In 2025 At Kapalua
Patrick Cantlay6 days ago

Looks For Hot Start In 2025
Sam Burns6 days ago

In Top Form Ahead of Kapalua
Cameron Young6 days ago

Needs To Avoid Bad Rounds In Hawaii

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Jahmyr Gibbs - Fantasy Football, Rankings, Draft, Sleeper, DFS, Running Back

2025 NFL Playoffs Bracket: Predictions, Picks for the Entire NFL Postseason and Super Bowl LIX

The playoff matchups are finally written, and the exciting home stretch is upon us. It's been a thrilling 2024 regular season, but the postseason brings a special competitive edge to every snap. Several familiar faces and a few new ones are looking to dazzle in their first taste of the playoffs. Teams are hitting the […]


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL injury News

Biggest Fantasy Football Busts Of The Week - Fantasy Outlooks For Sam Darnold, Tyreek Hill, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, George Pickens, Jordan Addison, more

The 18th and final Sunday of the 2024 NFL regular season has come and gone. Hopefully, you woke up on Monday morning feeling very good about how your matchup went. However, this week's slate of games was certainly stress-inducing for many fantasy football managers. Part of that stress was caused by a group of players […]


Chiefs Defense - Fantasy Football D/ST Streamers, Team Defense Rankings, IDP Waiver Wire

Where is the Super Bowl This Year? Super Bowl LIX Date, Time, Location

The regular season is finally over. All the playoff teams are now set, and we only have one week before the postseason begins. It's never too early to start thinking about the Super Bowl, and while it may seem that the repeat champions from the 2022 and 2023 season will simply win it again, we […]


Josh Allen - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

FFPC Playoff Challenge - Fantasy Football Lineup Strategies for 2024 Playoff Leagues

Whether you captured a fantasy football title or fell just short of taking home your league's championship trophy, you are surely looking for more action during the NFL postseason! The FFPC (Fantasy Football Players Championship) has established itself as the leader in high-stakes competitive fantasy football they have you covered for playoff contests. Once again, […]


Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans - Tampa Bay Bucs, Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Week 18 Matchups Analysis

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another start'em and sit'em piece as we look ahead to Week 18! This Week 18 matchups analysis and Start 'Em, Sit 'Em will help you make the right lineup decisions in the final week of the regular season.  Whether you play in a Week 18 fantasy football championship or are looking for some DFS […]


Amon-Ra St. Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Vikings vs. Lions Sunday Night Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, Aaron Jones, Jahmyr Gibbs, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and more

With a small group of fantasy managers still battling it out for league championships, we have an excellent matchup for Sunday Night Football between two teams who are very capable of providing offensive fireworks. The Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions are set to square off in a Week 18 primetime matchup. This one is for […]


Patrick Mahomes - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

NFL Inactives Week 18 (Updated): Which Teams Are Resting Starters? Who's Sitting or Playing in Week 18

If your fantasy football league extends to Week 18, you either forgot to change that setting, or you love living on the edge. The final week of the NFL regular season is always tricky to navigate, as several teams either do not play their key starters or pull them early. Many teams have already clinched […]


Joe Flacco - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Quarterback Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks for Fantasy Football Playoffs - Week 18 (2024)

It's Week 18, finally. The quarterback position has been a roller coaster this season, with a lot of unexpected names having big seasons and others disappointing massively. It's not always easy to choose who to start and sit at this position, and many fantasy managers probably have multiple QBs they're considering for their starting lineups. […]


NFL Week 18 Predictions: Picks, Analysis, and Motivations for Every Game

Hello, football fans, and welcome to the final week of the NFL regular season! As we head into Week 18, we got things kicked off with a pair of games on Saturday featuring four AFC North squads. Moving into Sunday, motivation will be key for several teams in the regular-season finale. Who is fighting to […]


Amari Cooper - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For Week 18 (Sunday Morning Updates): Tony Pollard, Amari Cooper, Darnell Mooney, Austin Ekeler, and more

Heading into Week 18 of the NFL season, injuries continue to impact the upcoming schedule. These play a huge factor in start/sit decisions for fantasy managers. Our injury updates and reports for Week 18 as of Sunday, January 5, 2025, will give you the latest updates on key fantasy football players. The injury news for […]


Sam Darnold - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL DFS Lineup Picks For FanDuel, DraftKings - Vikings vs. Lions SNF Showdown (Week 18)

Welcome back, RotoBallers! It's the showdown we've all been waiting for and certainly the most pivotal of all showdowns through this point of the season. We have Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings (14-2) taking on division rival Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions (14-2). Not only is this game for the NFC North crown, […]


Michael Penix Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Week 18 Superflex 2QB Rankings for Fantasy Football: Updates for Sam Darnold, Bryce Young, Michael Penix Jr., Joshua Dobbs, Drew Lock, Drake Maye

The Week 18 slate is here, meaning several teams who are eliminated from postseason action or have already locked up a playoff spot are set to rest some key starters. We're here to help you sort through it all with our Week 18 fantasy football Superflex rankings (2QB) for 2024. If you're still chasing a […]


Zach Charbonnet - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Week 18 PPR Rankings for Fantasy Football Playoffs: Overall Updates Include Isaac Guerendo, Zach Charbonnet, Blake Corum, Jordan Addison, Jayden Reed

If your league championship is in Week 18, you surely already know it's a difficult week to navigate. Below, you'll see our NFL team's updated Week 18 fantasy football PPR rankings for 2024. Let's see where key players like Isaac Guerendo, Zach Charbonnet, Blake Corum, Jordan Addison, and Jayden Reed stand for the must-win Week […]