Rick Lucks analyzes three popular draft targets at first base to see which players will perform and which will bust during the 2016 fantasy baseball season

While I provide generic ADP data in these articles, it is at least as important to look at the data for the site and format you are drafting on as well. Wonky default ratings often lead to absurd values, such as Masahiro Tanaka lasting way too long in the recent Rotoballer industry draft.

It is also important to not become too attached to ADP, which measures the average and not the only possible draft position. If a sleeper you like has an ADP of 200, someone else could still take him 175th, or even 75th. It becomes a balancing act of trying to lock in a strong value while also ensuring you pounce before your rivals.

Without further ado, lets talk about two first basemen and a former outfielder that will soon pretend to be one.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. Our rankings assistant tool combines all our staff's ranks in one place. You can easily filter and export all sorts of rankings and tiers - mixed leagues, points leagues, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty ranks, keeper values, and more.

Champ or Chump: First Base

Prince Fielder (1B, TEX, ADP 67.6)

Fielder enjoyed a highly successful rebound season in 2015, posting a triple slash line of .305/.378/.463 with 23 HR. He'll slot in to a favorable lineup in an even more favorable ballpark, so fantasy owners are drafting him as if he's a lock to repeat it.

He isn't. Fielder's .305 average was buoyed by the highest BABIP of his career, .323. All of his batted balls bounced favorably, as his grounders (.249 vs. .222), fly balls (.181 vs. .151) and line drives (.760 vs. .732) all outperformed their career averages. This masked a sharp decline in LD%, which fell from 22.9% in his last healthy campaign (2013) to just 18.3% last season. It was below average in his limited 2014 work as well, indicating that Fielder may hit less liners moving forward even if the stat can fluctuate randomly.

Fielder also chased more bad pitches in 2015, as his O-Swing% jumped from 30.6% in 2013 to 34.4% last season. This, predictably, caused his BB% to fall from 2013's 10.5% to 9.2%. He actually struck out less often as well (16.4% K% in 2013 to 12.7% last year) by increasing his Contact% (78% to 81.5%), but chasing more bad pitches is generally not a recipe for improved contact rates. Regression could be coming.

If it does, Fielder will not have the benefit of elite power to salvage his season. Once consistently above the 40% FB% threshold, Fielder's 35.5% fly ball rate last season was not too exciting. His 12.2% HR/FB was barely above average despite playing half of his games in a stadium where the ball flies. These numbers may increase a little to sustain 20 HR campaigns, but the days of 40+ appear to be gone for good.

Finally, Fielder appeared in just 18 games in the field last season, becoming a utility-only option in some formats. He figures to remain a productive bat for fantasy teams, but his current ADP makes him cost too much if he regresses at all.

Verdict: Chump

Albert Pujols (1B, LAA, ADP 88)

Pujols posted the worst line of his Hall of Fame career in 2015, slashing just .244/.307/.480. At least he socked 40 dingers to relieve some of the pain. Since no one complained about the power, we'll talk about his average.

Pujols posted an overall BABIP of just .217 last season. He always had the profile of a low BABIP hitter, as he pulls a lot of ground balls, pops up a lot, lacks speed and seldom hits line drives. Yet these things have always been true, and he actually pulled fewer grounders (65%) than in 2014 (70.5%) while popping up less often (9.8% IFFB% vs. 12.9% in 2014). Why did he collapse?

Line drives are almost entirely to blame for Albert's poor average last year. The owner of an 18.8% career LD%, it fell to just 15.9% last season. While it is pretty clear Pujols will never approach the 21% major league average, a rebound to his career rate should help his average a ton.

Furthermore, the few liners he did hit posted a BABIP of just .607 last year. While Pujols seldom hits liners, the few he hits have a very favorable career BABIP of .744. The shift may rob him of a few lined hits, but they're generally hit hard enough that only picture perfect positioning can snag them. A massive BABIP uptick should be expected for 2016, likely propping up the final batting average to the point where it at least doesn't hurt fantasy owners.

That would make Pujols' power a tremendous fantasy asset. A 42.2% FB% and 17.8% HR/FB are both numbers that seem to legitimize last year's power. His 2014 numbers weren't quite as good (35.4% and 13.9% respectively), but they seem to be the outlier here. Even as an Angel, Pujols' FB% has always been at least within shouting distance of 40% except in 2014. Meanwhile, his career HR/FB is 18.3%, slightly higher than last year's mark.

Pujols has lost some of the batting eye he displayed in his prime, but his 32% O-Swing% last year was hardly bad. He also strikes out just 10.9% of the time, an elite number for a slugger. Lest you believe it was a fluke, it was fully supported by a tiny 6.6% SwStr%. Usually, this much power potential comes attached to a million strikeouts that threaten to crater your fantasy average. Pujols still defies this trend.

Age may have sapped some power and average from Albert Pujols, but the man remains a tremendous baseball player. His ability to mash 40+ bombs represents far more upside than anything Fielder has left, and he's available a few picks later to boot!

Verdict: Champ

Hanley Ramirez (OF, BOS, ADP 121.8)

Allow me to preface this by saying that I had no confidence in Ramirez's ability to successfully rebound in Boston before I looked at any metrics. His effort to transition to the outfield despite never playing there didn't work last year, and now they're trying the same experiment with first base. He should be a DH, but Ortiz isn't giving up any PAs and Sandoval is in the same mess Hanley is at third. Boston is a notoriously difficult environment to play in, and Ramirez left an extremely negative first impression. His reputation as a malcontent dates back to his Florida days.

With that said, the metrics don't seem to support a rebound either. Since the 19 big flies in 430 PAs were the only remotely interesting thing about last season's triple slash line of .249/.291/.426, I'm guessing Ramirez's fantasy owners see power upside here. Not only did Hanley fail to surpass the 40% FB% generally looked for in a slugger, he failed to surpass the 30% threshold required of a major leaguer. Indeed, his 29.6% rate is like the opposite of a power breakout.

The power was the result of a 19.2% HR/FB, a rate far higher than both 2014's 10.5% rate and his career 14.1% figure. No way he can repeat it. The lack of flies left plenty of room in Ramirez's batted ball profile for grounders, as his 50% GB% was very high. That may have helped the fleet-footed Marlin that swiped 50 bags a year, but he hasn't taken as many as 20 since 2012.

His plate discipline also eroded, as he swung at more bad pitches (31.9% O-Swing% in 2014 up to 34.3% last year) and walked almost never (from a robust 10.9% in 2014 to just 4.9% last year) as a result. If I have to say something nice, his K% held constant at 16.5% and he had poor fortune on batted balls, posting an overall BABIP of .257. Still, you're probably better off taking your favorite late round sleeper one round earlier than taking on this reclamation project.

Verdict: Chump

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