Rick Lucks analyzes three popular draft targets at catcher to see which players will perform and which will bust during the 2016 fantasy baseball season

Earlier this offseason, I did a series of articles detailing how to use advanced metrics to validate and predict baseball player performance for fantasy purposes. In season, advanced metrics are useful to separate random hot streaks from legitimate breakouts. In the offseason, they can spare you from wasting a high pick or a bunch of auction dollars on a bust.

This series will use the metrics I previously detailed to examine three players at each position, starting with catcher. Relievers won't be included, as I tend to like any source of cheap saves and the small sample sizes can make RP analysis unreliable at times.

One thing these preseason articles will make extensive use of is ADP, or average draft position. I use the ADP data from FantasyPros, which constantly changes as more drafts are completed. Therefore, listed ADPs may not be accurate anymore after publication. A Champ is someone currently being valued at or below what I feel his value is, while a Chump strikes me as a bust in the making.

Without further ado, let's begin.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. Our rankings assistant tool combines all our staff's ranks in one place. You can easily filter and export all sorts of rankings and tiers - mixed leagues, points leagues, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty ranks, keeper values, and more.

Champ or Chump: Catchers

Kyle Schwarber (C/OF, CHC, ADP 43.5)

Schwarber proved exciting in his 273 MLB PAs last season, mashing 16 HR with a .246/.355/.487 triple slash line. The prospect of elite power at a premium position has fantasy owners drooling, consistently calling his name in the first four rounds of early drafts.

That strikes me as too early for a guy with such a limited history. Even in the minor leagues, aggressive promotion limited him to a career high of just 243 PAs at one level (Double-A last year). Schwarber posted extremely high BABIPs in each of his brief minor league stints, which neither his footspeed or major league LD% (17.3%) suggest is sustainable moving forward. Small sample size shenanigans seem the most likely reason for this, suggesting negative regression for his 2015 BABIP of .293.

Digging deeper, Schwarber posted a .286 BABIP on ground balls last season. This was significantly above the MLB average of .236, and Schwarber projects as the kind of all or nothing slugger that should struggle to maintain even an average rate due to the shift. His .246 average can't fall too much lower without becoming a significant fantasy liability.

His average was so low because he struck out a ton - 28.2% of the time, in fact. His 14.4% SwStr% and Triple-A history suggest that he will continue to K moving forward. His 13.2% BB% looks good for OBP leagues, but his 30.7% O-Swing% was only average. Pitchers rarely throw him strikes out of respect for his power, but his plate discipline is not elite.

Dexter Fowler's return to Wrigley also forces Schwarber to compete with the similar Jorge Soler for playing time in LF, potentially limiting him to an average catcher's PAs despite not playing the grueling position. He also doesn't project as a long term catcher defensively, potentially hurting his value in keeper leagues.

If everything goes right, Schwarber could hit 40 dingers without killing your average from a catcher slot. However, that optimistic scenario is probably not the most likely outcome, and anything less would be a significant loss relative to his current ADP.

Verdict: Chump

 
Salvador Perez (C, KC, ADP 114.5)

The starting catcher for the world champs hit .260/.280/.426 with a career high 21 HR last season. He was good at defense, but fantasy owners don't care. Generally, we only care about offensive production.

The most significant aspect of that production was the dingers, but they figure to be more of a blip than a baseline. Perez's power outburst was rooted in a 12.4% HR/FB, only the second time in six seasons he has managed an above average rate. Meanwhile, his FB% actually declined from 39.5% in 2014 to 37.4% last year. FB% is the stickier of the two stats, so its probably best to trust it and expect less power in 2016.

Perez's 2.4% BB% was hilariously bad, even for him. Somehow, the 43.3% O-Swing% that led to it was an improvement over the previous season's 46.2% mark. Perez also set career worsts in SwStr% (9%) and K% (14.8%), though both remain better than the MLB average. With this kind of plate discipline, it is difficult to foresee a return to the plus averages from the beginning of his career.

Sure, catcher is thin. However, Perez relied on an unsustainable power spike to deliver a meh line last year. His home park works against him as a power hitter, and all of those innings he spends squatting are bound to take a physical toll at some point. At the same point in the draft, you could take Masahiro Tanaka's ace potential (114.3 ADP), Evan Longoria's more sustainable power (113 ADP) or Kole Calhoun's well-rounded game (118.5 ADP). Perez just doesn't produce enough to go this early.

Verdict: Chump

 
Russell Martin (C, TOR, ADP 124.5)

Another catcher that posted a career best in bombs (23) while otherwise posting a meh line       (.240/.329/.458), Martin is even being taken at roughly the same time as Perez. Like Perez, his power spike was the result of a massive spike in HR/FB, to 20.7% from a career average of 12.4%. It would be easy to dismiss him in much the same way.

But I think that's too simple. While Martin has a relatively low HR/FB rate for his career, he spent most of it in pitching-friendly stadiums like PNC Park and Dodger Stadium. The Rogers Centre is a power hitter's dream that should be expected to inflate a player's pop. The only two years Martin spent in a hitter's park prior to last year were his two years at Yankee Stadium, which produced HR/FB rates of 15.9% and 19.8%.

That comparison makes last year's 20.7% figure much more believable. The conclusion is also supported by Martin hitting three more homers at home despite five fewer PAs there. While his power should be regressed a little, 20 seems attainable as long as he's a Blue Jay. Playing for Toronto also gives Martin the possibility of elite counting stat upside, as a favorable lineup slot in that offense is one of the best jobs a fantasy player could hope for.

There is also some batting average upside here. Everyone expected his .336 BABIP from 2014 to come crashing down, and it cratered all the way to .262. The biggest culprit seems to be a LD% of just 16.4% against a career rate of 18.9%. He is a below average line drive hitter, but even his career norm would spike his BABIP, and by extension his batting average, to acceptable levels.

Plate discipline also correlates with batting average, and Martin possesses it in spades. His 8.4% SwStr% last season was better than league average, and his 23.7% O-Swing% was really good. Despite these stats and mostly consistent contact rates, Martin struck out 20.9% of the time last year compared to 17% the year before and a career average of 16.3%. He shouldn't need to change anything in order to strikeout less and improve his average.

It is not all sunshine and roses with Martin. His IFFB% jumped to 18.9% from 9.3% the year before, adding a lot of unproductive batted balls to his profile. That spike may not be a new baseline, however, and even a .260 average is great for a catcher with 20 HR and a shot at great counting stats. He didn't occupy the best lineup slot last season, but his plate discipline and history suggest he could. Why anyone is taking Salvador Perez over him is a mystery to me.

Verdict: Champ

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