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MLB DFS Pitching Primer for 5/3
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High-Priced Aces
These are your studs who are worth paying up for on this slate. It makes sense to deploy these guys as your cash game plays on FanDuel and as your SP1 on DraftKings based on their high floor/ceiling combination.
Tyler Glasnow @ LAA (10.8k FD, 10.3k DK)
Glasnow is by far the best pitcher on this slate, but we run into a tough situation here as he's very expensive and in a rather difficult matchup here against the Angels. The real issue for me is that Buehler is the only real alternative as far as a really cash-game safe ace and his game has major weather issues. I think Glasnow is viable on DK in cash if you're willing to punt your SP2 spot with Lynch (more on him in a minute) and he has still had a pretty solid floor with the Toronto game being his only start with under 20 DK points.
Walker Buehler @ CHC (9.6k FD, 10.2k DK)
This game looks really iffy and we may not get to use Buehler at all. If we get any type of improvement in the forecast, fire up Walker against a Cubs team with a 27% K rate to RHP. Yes, they had a big day at the plate yesterday, but we can still pick on this club with RHP and Buehler comes into this one in solid form, having allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his five starts.
Mid-Tier Pivots
These are riskier plays who often go overlooked in the 7-9k price range, but have a lot of upside for tournaments and will save us some salary to spend on better hitters or another mid-tier pitcher (on DraftKings).
Shohei Ohtani vs. TBR (8.9k FD, 7.6k DK)
Ohtani left yesterday's game early but is still slated to start tonight as of right now. If he's good to go, he's an attractive mid-tier target tonight against a Tampa offense that has scuffled this season. The Rays striking out 25% of the time against RHP and their two best lefty hitter Austin Meadows and Brandon Lowe haven't been able to get going yet. Ohtani had some issues with control but is missing bats at an elite rate this year. On DK, he makes a great tournament option as your SP2 and I like the idea of pairing two risky mid-tier options with upside together in some GPPs.
Tyler Anderson @ SDP (8.6k FD, 7k DK)
Anderson has flourished in Pittsburgh, much to my surprise. I had left him for dead and figured he was just getting a shot with the Pirates since they had so few other options to fill out their rotation. It turns out he still has something left and has been very serviceable in each of his five starts this season, allowing three earned runs or less in all five. He's got his walk issues under control and has put up some decent K numbers this season Normally, I would avoid picking on the Padres, but their offense hasn't been all that great this season. If Anderson can pitch around Tatis, Machado, and Myers, he might be able to post another quality start and get you the 15 DK points you are looking for here.
Bargain Bin
These are the best value pitchers to use, either on FanDuel as your lone starter or on DraftKings as your SP2.
Adam Wainwright vs. NYM (7.2k FD, 8k DK)
Here's the play tonight - it's gross, but I think I am going to do it. Waino has shown serious signs of life over his last two starts, posting 29 and 31 DK points against the Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies, respectively. He's facing a Mets team that has been rather abysmal against RHP this season (.292 wOBA, .114 ISO), and their profiles don't look very good against Waino's best pitch - his big curveball. It's not just a whiff rate thing, it's also a ground ball thing - as the majority of the bats in the Mets lineup have huge groundball rates against the curve. I'm going to take a stand here on the veteran and use him in all formats. He's in great form and has a solid matchup - that's about the most we can ask for tonight with this group of pitchers.
Kenta Maeda vs. TEX (6.9k FD, 7.8k DK)
Maeda has been pretty lousy this year with really only one decent start out of five. His numbers are really troublesome as his strikeouts are down and the quality of contact that hitters are making has gone way up. That said, his price is really attractive here on FanDuel if you are looking to load up on Coors bats at under 7k. He is facing Texas, a team that is whiffing 30% of the time against RHH despite the poor metrics, he showed last year that he has an elite ability to miss bats with his breaking pitches. It's a very risky play, but if he stumbles here we might finally have to admit that he's broken.
Daniel Lynch vs. CLE (4k DK)
Lynch is only available on DraftKings and is priced at the stone minimum. He's a well-regarded prospect in the Royals organization and as a lefty, the matchup here is pretty solid as Cleveland has been pretty mediocre against LHP this season (.295 wOBA, .170 ISO). They don't strike out much (19%) but Lynch is probably good for 4-5 strikeouts if he lasts 5+ innings and at this price, you'd probably be okay with like 10 DK points. I expect him to be popular since you can use the salary savings to jam in a high-end pitcher and some solid bats, but I am not entirely sold on going with him as your SP2 is the most optimal route either.
Cash Game Rankings:
- Glasnow
- Buehler (check weather)
- Wainwright
- Lynch (SP2 DK only)
GPP Rankings:
- Ohtani
- Wainwright
- Maeda
- Glasnow
- Anderson
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