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MLB DFS Pitching Primer for 4/30
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High-Priced Aces
These are your studs who are worth paying up for on this slate. It makes sense to deploy these guys as your cash game plays on FanDuel and as your SP1 on DraftKings based on their high floor/ceiling combination.
Gerrit Cole vs. DET (12.2k FD, 10.5k DK)
Cole has a lofty price tag tonight on FanDuel, and it could be challenging to fit the bats that you want with him over there. But his price on DK is silly low for him and he should be a staple of DK cash lineups. The Tigers aren't nearly as bad against RHP as lefties, but I still have Cole pegged for 10-11 strikeouts. He's a massive -360 favorite and the Tigers are implied for only 2.3 runs. There are a lot of other guys to consider in GPPs, but Cole in cash is likely your best option tonight.
Shane Bieber @ CWS (12k FD, 10.7k DK)
Bieber has a much tougher matchup than Cole here and is actually more expensive on DraftKings. I am a huge Bieber lover, but I am not sure how much exposure I will have tonight. It's tempting because I think he will come in relatively low-owned due to his price/matchup, and he did throw a gem against them earlier this season (CG with 11 strikeouts). There are just a lot of pitchers I like today. I would never blame you for rolling with Biebs tonight, but I "only" have him projected for 9 strikeouts and at this price point he needs to dominate to pay off for you.
Yu Darvish vs. SFG (11k FD, 9.5k DK)
Darvish is a step below the other two studs, but we also get a nice little discount on him and he has a solid matchup against a Giants team with a 27% K rate and only a .163 ISO against RHP. Darvish has been in great form lately with two dominant starts against a good Dodgers team and he already beat this Giants team once earlier this year going six innings with seven strikeouts and allowing only one run. There's definitely a chance he could match the output of Cole or Bieber at 1000 bucks less, I like him a good bit for tourneys.
Mid-Tier Pivots
These are riskier plays who often go overlooked in the 7-9k price range, but have a lot of upside for tournaments and will save us some salary to spend on better hitters or another mid-tier pitcher (on DraftKings).
Jon Gray @ ARI (8.8k FD, 8.1k DK)
I prefer Gray over on DraftKings tonight as a solid SP2 option. He's having a really solid 2021 so far after struggling mightily the last few years. He's still battling some walk issues, but he's beaten some quality opponents recently with wins over Houston and Philly. He's facing a Snakes squad that struggles vs. RHP with only a .155 ISO that he already beat earlier in the month. It's a good spot for Gray here and I think he could definitely go 6-7 innings with 6-7 strikeouts which should likely be enough to pay off his tag here.
Andrew Heaney @ SEA (8.7k FD, 6.8k DK)
WOW, look at the price difference here! He's an elite option on DK tonight as an SP2 at this price given Heaney's strikeout ability and his opponent's strikeout tendencies (29% this season). He's always a little risky because he can give up some gopher balls, but I like him for 7-8 strikeouts tonight which could make him one of the best point-per-dollar options on the slate.
Freddy Peralta vs. LAD (8k FD, 8.7DK)
Peralta's price is better on FanDuel tonight, but he certainly comes with some risk, too. Attacking the Dodgers is not something we usually WANT to do because they are good, but it's something we should really consider tonight given that Peralta is a high-K pitcher and the Dodgers are whiffing around league average this year (24%). It's a boom/bust spot like Heaney's that could go overlooked tonight but I think I will roll with some shares of Freddy here.
Bargain Bin
These are the best value pitchers to use, either on FanDuel as your lone starter or on DraftKings as your SP2.
Pablo Lopez @WAS (8.1k FD, 7.8k DK)
We have some really interesting options down here today and Pablo is my favorite. I think he's the safest of the bunch and makes for a compelling SP2 option on DK in cash. He's having a great year so far and is coming off two really solid outings against the Giants in which he allowed only one run over 12 innings with 16 strikeouts. Washington is a great matchup for him as they continue to be without Juan Soto and their team stats against RHP are very poor (.276 wOBA, .120 ISO). He's not a big strikeout guy, but I like the run prevention here. If we get 6 fairly clean innings with 4-6 strikeouts and a chance at a win, then I'm okay with that at this price.
Nathan Eovaldi @ TEX (7.8k FD, 8.2k DK)
Eovaldi throws with his right hand and is facing Texas, a team with a 31% K rate to righties. So this play is strikeout-based more than anything. Eovaldi has come back to earth a bit since a hot start, but we did see him whiff 10 White Sox this year already and he's certainly viable at this price tag today. I put him slightly ahead of Ray and a good bit behind Lopez.
Robbie Ray vs. ATL (7.1k FD, 6.6k DK)
Warning, Warning - I NEVER recommend Robbie Ray! I hate Robbie Ray. I hate everything about him. He's just one of those guys I never use because I never feel like I can trust him not to walk 6 guys and then give up a grand slam. He's a flyball pitcher who is toeing the rubber in a minor league stadium. Everything in my bones says to stay away, BUT he's coming off a really solid start against Tampa in which he struck out nine without walking a single hitter. He's always had good stuff but has never had the control or an effective third pitch. Atlanta is a team that has struggled vs. LHP this year and Ray will be super sneaky tonight...if I can just get myself to click that button.
Cash Game Rankings:
- Cole
- Darvish
- Gray
- Lopez
- Bieber
GPP Rankings:
- Heaney
- Bieber
- Peralta
- Lopez
- Darvish
- Cole
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