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Welcome to Championship Sunday of the NFL Playoffs! I'll bring you our famous NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with expert research and picks for cash games and GPPs each week. Here are a few notes about the sheet.
- Green means GO (good for the player), while red reflects a poor rating/matchup. The more green, the better...
- CASH CORE pieces are highlighted with BRIGHT GREEN highlighter on the chart for extra emphasis.
- The "fantasy points allowed rank" reflects how a player's opponent ranked in fantasy points allowed to their specific position. The lower the number, the better the matchup.
- Passing and Rushing game matchups are again DVOA ratings as I regained access to that metric and find it to be super helpful.
- A play labeled "cash" is a higher-owned play recommended for cash games. A "strong" play is playable in all formats. "Slate-breakers" are some of my favorite GPP targets for upside or reduced ownership.
- Vegas and risk columns will all be updated during the week to reflect injury info, weather info, and the most recent Vegas info.
Premium NFL DFS Cheat Sheet - Championship Sunday
NFC Championship: Philadelphia (-6) vs. Washington (47.5 point total)
This is the third meeting between these division rivals this season, with the teams splitting the first two meetings. Philly used a big fourth quarter to put Washington away in a 26-18 win back in November, while the Commanders were able to rally and win the second meeting about a month ago 36-33 behind a five-TD performance from Jayden Daniels.
Jalen Hurts left that game early with a concussion, and we should point out that the Eagles led 21-7 in the first quarter before having to put Kenny Pickett into the game. The Commanders overcame five turnovers in that one, too, as Brian Robinson Jr. fumbled twice, Daniels tossed two picks, and Dyami Brown fumbled once.
So, we have seen two very different outcomes in terms of how much scoring to expect. But based on what we know about these teams, I lean more towards an outcome similar to the first matchup, as that second game feels more like the outlier.
Both teams like to run the football and have mobile QBs who can scramble and extend plays as well, so the offenses have a big advantage here. The biggest difference is that Philly has a top defense, while Washington's is middle-of-the-pack at best.
Washington will need things to go their way early - some turnovers or just early offensive success if they stand a chance. I think the most likely game script is one where Philly leads by a touchdown throughout the game, which would lead us toward the Philly running game and the Commanders' passing game.
Barkley is now projected at 90% ownership or more, so let's just move on to some other pieces. A.J. Brown is the other big chalky piece for Philly, even though he has not been involved much lately in recent weeks. That makes me want to pivot to DeVonta Smith, who is cheaper and has a similar ceiling to Brown.
People can talk all they want about Hurts not playing well in his first game back, but he didn't make mistakes and still threw for two scores. This offense is built for him to thrive, and his rushing upside makes him an ideal cash or SE play, even with Barkley. Playing the two together, you're locking in at least one to two rushing scores and a good chunk of the total Philly offensive output.
I am okay with Dallas Goedert shares in Philly stacks in order to be different, but there aren't many other secondary pieces here really to consider.
On the Washington side of things, it's Jayden Daniels who brings the most upside with his rushing ability, and he should have to throw it more than Hurts here. The obvious stacking option is Terry McLaurin, but he's also expensive, and we saw Brown break out in a big way last week.
Pairing Daniels with Brown and/or Zach Ertz is more cost-efficient. Including Austin Ekeler in this game stack is something I will be doing a lot as he's been dynamic with his opportunities. I much prefer Ekeler to Brian Robinson Jr. based on the projected game script here and his big play ability in the passing game.
Core Plays: Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, Austin Ekeler, Dyami Brown
Secondary Plays: A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert
Potential Fades: Kenneth Gainwell, Olamide Zaccheaus
AFC Championship: Kansas City (-1.5) vs. Buffalo (48.5 point total)
Can the Bills finally overcome the Chiefs? I don't think they will, but it will certainly be an entertaining game if history has taught us anything.
I'd toss out the early season result between these two teams to some extent, only because we have seen that movie before - i.e., the Bills winning in the regular season and then losing to KC in the playoffs. Heck, the Chiefs went into Buffalo last year in the divisional round and beat them, now they get them at home in Arrowhead.
And while this might be Josh Allen at his best and with a solid surrounding cast, it's also Patrick Mahomes in January with a seasoned group of veterans around him on offense and a top-5 defense.
Whoever wins is somewhat irrelevant here, as we are playing this one as if it's close in either direction. Mahomes is too cheap for what we know he can do and is one of my favorite options at QB.
While he doesn't bring the same rushing upside and touchdown-scoring that Allen does, he is crafty and has better options at nearly every position on offense other than running back. He also has Andy Reid calling the plays for him with an endless assortment of creativity in formations, personnel, and wrinkles.
Kelce is a core play and has done well against the Bills in the postseason. The offense will most assuredly run through Kelce and rookie receiver Xavier Worthy - who the Chiefs have made a point to funnel targets to on short passes; gadget plays, and down the field in an attempt to utilize his incredible speed.
At running back, Kareem Hunt continues to play better than Isiah Pacheco and has earned more touches in every game since Pacheco came back. He's a better runner at the goal line, and if I play a KC back, it's probably going to be Hunt over Pacheco - who only touched the ball five times last week and was targeted once.
Marquise Brown dropped a long pass last week and has some GPP appeal here, while Noah Gray certainly does, too, if you want to make some double-TE builds.
As for Buffalo, it gets very difficult to figure out where to go here other than Josh Allen and Khalil Shakir. Allen projects to be popular this week, as does Shakir, but James Cook is in a tough spot here against a good KC run defense.
The Chiefs held him to just 20 yards rushing in the first meeting; however, Cook scored two touchdowns and was still able to put up a decent score. For that reason alone, he has to be considered this week, and it's hard to completely fade him, knowing that the Bills love to run the football and throw to their backs.
If we are looking at other receiving options, then Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman are potential dart throws. Samuel has some YAC upside and lines up in the slot often, which is a good thing, and Coleman has some big play potential down the field.
Dalton Kincaid was barely involved last week but could see an uptick in targets this week, though he doesn't move the needle for me much when we have much better options on the other three teams at his position.
If the Bills win, I think an Allen-Cook-Shakir stack - as chalky as it might be - is the most likely path toward a victory, and you could get different with some weird KC pieces like Brown or Gray coming back the other way.
Core Plays: Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Khalil Shakir
Secondary Plays: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, James Cook, Marquise Brown, Noah Gray, Kareem Hunt
Potential Fades: Isiah Pacheco, Amari Cooper, Dalton Kincaid/Dawson Knox
Cash Game Cores
DraftKings: Barkley-Ekeler-Kelce-Shakir
FanDuel: Barkley-Worthy-Kelce-Shakir (Ekeler is still a solid option here, too)
DEFENSE: (in order of preference) - PHI, KC, BUF, WAS
The defense is a real crapshoot this week. The Eagles have the best unit, but they also have a tough opponent, as the Commanders have been excellent at preventing turnovers. The Buffalo-KC game might be a better spot to attack for tournaments as that one could be higher-scoring and feature more potential for turnovers.
FAVORITE GAME STACKS:
Buffalo - KC (the KC side mainly; BUF is so tough to stack I'd either run Allen naked or just with Shakir)
Washington-Philly (the Wash side is more stackable, with Barkley, Brown, and Smith being viable run-backs)
Premium DFS Expert Lineups - Championship Sunday
FanDuel Lineup
DraftKings Lineup
Please note that these are sample lineups we provide as a tool for you to use. They are designed to give you building block options as you go about choosing your own lineups, but in no way can we guarantee success. Be sure to examine the latest injury updates, Las Vegas projected game totals, and late scratches before finalizing your lineups to ensure the players you are choosing are active on game day.
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