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After a run of terrible “big” slates earlier this month, we have now had three or four in a row that have been outstanding. As an outstanding slate, I would qualify a slate with numerous teams of varying price points and various start times in strong positions. These tend to not only be more fun, but they offer a better opportunity for skilled players to use their experience to build competitive GPP lineups. Edmonton once again hangs a bit of a cloud on the slate as a strong home favorite, but there is enough variety out there to build a lineup that fades them and still competes for the top spot in a tournament.
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options, including four tournaments that have an entry fee of $15 or less and a top prize of $1,000 or more, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $10,000. Meanwhile, FanDuel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $2,000 first prize. There is money to be won tonight, so let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. I aim to help you narrow your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Dallas Stars (DAL2 - Mason Marchment, Matt Duchene, Tyler Seguin)
It may seem odd to see the second line for the Stars here rather than the top line, but based on how Dallas has played their home games this year, it’s anticipated that this is the line that will have the best matchup on the team. They should be spending the majority of their ice time facing off against the Ducks' defensive pairing of Fowler/LaCombe, and they have been the most generous duo on the road this season.
Dallas has been great at home recently, scoring 3.81 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last 10 games. The second line is a far better trio at home, scoring 7.5 more DraftKings points per game than they do on the road. While the talent level may be better on the top line, the matchup and price points of this second line would appear to make them the better play.
Using this line at an average price point of around $4,600 per player will allow you to create a far more balanced lineup than if you were to use their top line in a potentially inferior defensive matchup at an average price point of $6,400. With so many strong options on the slate, a more balanced lineup may be the preferred approach.
Edmonton Oilers (EDM1 - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman)
On the other hand, maybe you prefer to spend up to the top stack with the best matchup. I said what needed to be said about them on Tuesday, so this section will borrow heavily from that.:
REPEAT FROM TUESDAY (modified): One of the things about Edmonton that goes overlooked is that people won’t stack the full line (including Evan Bouchard on defense) because it would require them to spend down for the rest of their lineup to players they may not be comfortable using. We make sure to identify lower-cost stacks (NYI3 is an example tonight) so you can use them with Edmonton and get the advantage of stacking the full line.
While it’s not mandatory to play the Oilers tonight, they are in a great spot, maybe their best of the year. Chicago has allowed over four even-strength goals and 15 high-danger chances per 60 minutes over their last 10 games. Edmonton has scored 2.47 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last 10 home games, and advanced data shows that they’ve been unlucky as their expected goals per 60 minutes is a slate-high 3.4. The Oilers will likely be the highest-scoring team on the slate, the question is if you can surround them with enough firepower to make them the optimal line.
Ottawa Senators (OTT2 -Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson, Ridly Greig)
Something isn’t right with the Boston Bruins. They may have the best record in the Eastern Conference, but advanced data indicates that there’s a potential downfall coming. They have allowed only 2.01 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last 10 road games, but their expected goals allowed is 31% higher.
Jeremy Swayman is in net for this game, and while he is one of the best goalies in the league, he is playing above expectations like the rest of the team. He’s allowing 20% fewer goals than expected, so some negative regression could be headed his way. This game is the second night of a back-to-back, their third game in four nights, and Boston is traveling from Massachusetts to Ottawa for this one. When you include that travel into the mix, that’s a heavy load for a team to endure, especially when you consider that Swayman allows nearly three-quarters of a goal more per game on the road than he does at home.
None of this even points out how Ottawa is on fire at home right now. Over their last 10 home games, they have scored 3.9 even-strength goals per game, and even if you look at their expected goals of 3.24 over that time frame, they still rank as an elite offense.
The second line for the Senators will likely match up against Boston’s most generous defensive pairing of McAvoy/Grzelcyk, so that’s why we are going to use them rather than Ottawa’s top line. Ottawa has been playing with their lines a lot lately, so keep an eye on our Discord for any changes to what we have posted here. You can also check the Heat Map in the early evening to see any line changes that have been made for the team.
Others in consideration: MTL1, NSH1, CGY1
Top Value Stack of the Night
Carolina Hurricanes (CAR2 - Jack Drury, Martin Necas, Stefan Noesen)
Carolina has been playing well at home recently, scoring 2.83 even-strength goals over their last 10 games. The second line for Carolina may not have the highest ceiling on the team, but like many of the second lines we’ve talked about tonight, they are in a great spot and are very affordable. New Jersey hasn’t been overly consistent with their defensive pairings, but the ‘Canes’ second line will get the most time with the duo I want to attack, Marino/Hughes.
For their part, this trio has been playing well as of late. They scored a goal on Wednesday night against Boston, which was Jack Drury’s second assist in as many nights. Before Wednesday, he has scored double-digit fantasy points in two of his last five games, and at just $2,800, he doesn’t need to do much more than what he did last night to hit value.
Martin Necas scored the goal against Boston on Wednesday, which was the third game in a row that he’d scored. He has at least five shots on goal in each of those three games, and at his price point, those shots alone are enough for him to return solid value. This is a cheap line that I will want some exposure to on this slate.
Others in consideration: PHI3, PHI2, OTT3, NYI3, DAL3, CGY2
Top Goalies to Target
Stuart Skinner (Edmonton Oilers)
It honestly feels like cheating writing up Stuart Skinner tonight. He’s got such a good matchup against a Chicago team that can’t do anything offensively. They are averaging only 1.15 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last 10 road games, and even if you were to look at their expected goals per 60 minutes, it would still come in at less than two goals. That’s a pathetic offensive output.
Meanwhile, Skinner has been outstanding since his early-season struggles. He has allowed two or fewer goals in 10 straight games, winning each of those games and scoring 16 or more DraftKings points in each game. He most likely won’t get a ton of shot volume out of the Blackhawks, but I’m going to want his high floor in cash games. At his high price point of $8,500, he may go overlooked in tournaments.
Others in consideration (GPP): Andrei Vasilevskiy, Jeremy Swayman, Sam Montembeault, Juuse Saros, Jacob Markstrom
Others in consideration (Cash): Alex Lyon, Jake Oettinger
