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There are 12 games on tonight’s slate, and it looks to be full of great matchups. At this point, it looks like a night where a well-balanced lineup will rule the day as there isn’t too much value that’s popping on the Heat Map. Check back closer to lock to see if some value has emerged to allow you to stack lines like EDM1 or TOR1, but even if you can’t, there is a lot to like on this slate in the mid-range. I think that makes for a fun build and a wide-open night of hockey.
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $10,000. Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $2,000 first prize. There is money to be won tonight, so let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. I aim to help you narrow your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Edmonton Oilers (EDM2 - Leon Draisaitl, Warren Foegele, Ryan McLeod )
After not writing about the Oilers for much of the year, it seems like a daily occurrence lately, and for good reason. Edmonton is playing great hockey right now, averaging 3.68 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten road games. Even with regression factored in due to easier matchups, they’re still expected to score 3.13 goals. They’ll likely be on the higher end of their range of outcomes tonight given that they once again have a great matchup at Montreal. The Canadiens have allowed 2.58 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten home games, but they were expected to allow 2.86; meaning regression could be coming their way. Jake Allen is expected to be in net for them tonight, and he’s projected to be one of the three worst goalies on the slate, allowing three or more goals in five of his seven home starts this year.
What may be surprising about tonight’s game is that the second line for the Oilers looks to have the best matchup on the slate, edging out Connor McDavid’s top line. By no means should we be fading that top line, but the second line comes in at a much cheaper price and lower ownership. Nobody should have to convince you to use Leon Draisaitl, but Warren Foegele and Ryan McLeod have held their own this year. Foegele has four or more shots on goal in six of his last nine games, and has a combined ten goals and assists over his last ten games. That’s monster production for just $4,1000. McLeod hasn’t been quite as good, but he does have three or more shots on goal in three of his last four games and has combined for nine goals and assists over his last ten games. Using this line instead of the top line for the Oilers allows you to build a much more balanced lineup; something we don’t often get to do with Edmonton.
Nashville Predators (NSH1 - Gustav Nyquist, Ryan O’Reilly, Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi)
It seems like chasing points after Nashville’s huge game last night, but I had this stack as a top line when it was tied at 0-0. I chase data, not last night’s performance, and Nashville’s data is strong. They have struggled at home, scoring less than two even-strength goals per 60 minutes at home over their last ten games, but advanced data suggested they were due for positive regression. Yes, yesterday’s game was on the road, but the team is in a groove after last night’s game. Their matchup is great, facing an Islanders team that is awful on the road. New York has allowed 3.08 even-strength goals and a slate-high 13.64 high-danger chances per 60 minutes over their last ten road games. Since last night’s game isn’t factored into their pricing, the Predators are a little underpriced considering the matchup. Gustav Nyquist is particularly underpriced at just $4,800 considering he’s combined for 14 goals and assists over his last ten games. That’s the profile of a $5,500 player. Take the value and ride this matchup. Add in Roman Josi on defense to get power play correlation and a little more uniqueness to your lineup, as nobody is going to be stacking four Predators with so many other strong teams on the slate.
Gustav Nyquist extended his point streak to 10 games and became just the sixth player in @PredsNHL history to record a double-digit point streak and first since Roman Josi (13 GP in 2021-22) & Matt Duchene (10 GP in 2021-22).#NHLStats: https://t.co/Qpc7ahtCEA https://t.co/lfifBSfGCj
— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) January 13, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs (BUF1 - Auston Matthews, Mitchell Marner, Matthew Knies, Morgan Rielly)
The Maple Leafs could be a sneaky, big-time stack tonight. They face the Avalance, a very public team that casual players avoid stacking against, but who are playing poorly at the moment. Over their last ten road games, the Avs have allowed 2.65 even-strength goals and nearly 12 high-danger chances per game. They may be able to get away with that against a lesser team, but the Maple Leafs have been playing great offensive hockey at home, averaging just a hair under three even-strength goals per game. Advanced data shows that they’ve been a bit unlucky as they were expected to score 3.16 goals. Alexandar Georgiev, the Colorado goalie, has allowed three or more goals in four of his last five games, so this could be a game where Toronto puts up a big number.
Others in consideration: PIT2, CAR1, EDM1, TOR2, STL1
Top Value Stack of the Night
Vegas Golden Knights (VGK2 - Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson, Pavel Dorofeyev)
Few teams provide a better matchup for an opposing offense than the Calgary Flames. Over their last ten road games, they’ve allowed over three even-strength goals and 12.31 high-danger chances per 60 minutes. The biggest issue for Calgary is that there isn’t a defensive pairing on the team that can provide them any relief. All three pairings allow more than 10.5 high-danger chances and 2.7 goals allowed per 60 minutes, putting their goalies under constant pressure. Jacob Markstrom has handled the pressure well, allowing no more than four goals in any game this year, but if he has an off day it could be lights out for the Flames.
Although all three defensive pairings are weak, the two we want to attack most are Weegar/Andersson and Osterel/DeSimone. They will spend most of their time on the ice matched up against the second and third lines for the Knights. While both lines are in play, the combination of Chandler Stephenson and Mark Stone makes the second line the most appealing. Neither have played great this year, but we saw on their Stanley Cup-winning run last year that both are more than capable of monster games. They are the cheap, late-night hammer that I’d be looking to run tonight.
Others in consideration: LAK3, NSH3, DAL2, VGK3
Top Goalies to Target
Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg Jets)
REPEAT FROM TUESDAY: Connor Hellebuyck has been the best goalie in the NHL this year, full stop. He has been consistently excellent, allowing more than three goals in a game just once since October 17, a span of 27 games. With that said, he’s only been a mid-range fantasy option due to the lack of shot volume that he faces. The Jets allow under 29 shots on goal per game, limiting Hellebuyck’s upside. Still, with his low total of goals allowed, he has one of the safer floors in all of hockey, and in cash games, we are willing to sacrifice upside for safety. Over his last ten home games, Hellebuyck has scored 17 or more DraftKings points nine times; that’s pretty safe! Goalie has been the hardest position to predict this year, so maybe it’s time to stop hunting value for our cash games and just play the best player.
He scored 30 DraftKings points on Tuesday and has an even better matchup tonight against a Philly team that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing goalies on the season and is on the second night of a road back-to-back.
If you’re bored using Helley, then Joey Daccord is on a run of seven straight games of 20 or more DraftKings points and he’s $200 cheaper than Hellebuyck.
Others in consideration (GPP): Alex Lyon, Samuel Ersson, Filip Gustavsson, Martin Jones, Tristan Jarry, Connor Ingram, Adin Hill
Others in consideration (Cash): Joey Daccord, Cam Talbot, Stuart Skinner
