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After a tiny three-game slate on Wednesday night, we are back to another monster 12-game slate like we had on Tuesday night. That slate went very well, as many of our value stacks came through, and then Edmonton closed out the night with a monster performance as a blue stack on the Heat Map. This slate is very similar with a few big boy stacks and a handful of sneaky value stacks to help us shoot up tournament leaderboards.
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options, including five tournaments with an entry fee of $15 or less and a top prize of $1,000 or more, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $20,000. Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $3,000 first prize. There is money to be won tonight, so let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. I aim to help you narrow your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Ottawa Senators (OTT2 - Tim Stuetzle, Mathieu Joseph, Claude Giroux)
On Tuesday I wrote that the Senators are playing some of their best hockey of the season right now, and they did nothing to dispel that with a six-goal explosion against the the Blue Jackets. The top line for Ottawa was identified as the stack to target in that game, and Brady Tkachuk came through with a hat trick. One might think that it’d be wise to piggyback off that and go back to Tkachuk’s line, and while that’s not a terrible play to make, the data points to Ottawa’s second line as the one to target in this game. Claude Giroux is the key piece for your Ottawa stack, as he’s put up double-digit fantasy points in four of his last five games and is priced at only $5,900 tonight.
The Ducks have two defensive pairings worth picking on, and while Ottawa’s top line will spend quite a bit of time on the ice facing off against one of those duos, it’s the second line for Ottawa that will be on the ice for the most cumulative time with both of the defensive pairings. Each of those pairings, LaCombe/Fowler and Mintyukov/Lyubushkin, are allowing more than 13 high-danger chances, and have an xGA/60 of greater than three goals, per 60 minutes on the road this year. With the way that Giroux is playing right now, he and his linemates could feast on Anaheim’s turnstile defenders.
New Jersey Devils (NJ1 - Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, Ondrej Palat)
Over their last ten home games, the Devils have been a lethal offense. They are averaging 3.45 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over that stretch with little signs of slowing down. Advanced data shows that they are due for some negative regression, but their expected scoring output over those ten games is still a robust 2.8 goals per 60 minutes, which is a number that would put them on our radar anyway.
Nico Hischier has come out of the All-Star Break scorching hot, scoring 19.7 or more DraftKings points in three of the team’s five games on the strength of a combined seven goals and assists, as well as an average of nearly four shots on goal per game. Jesper Bratt has joined in on the fun with a combined six goals and assists and an average of 3.4 shots on goal per game, scoring 15 or more DraftKings points in three of his five games since the All-Star Break ended.
The Devils get the good fortune of facing off against a Kings team that is imploding defensively. Don’t let David Rittich’s season-long numbers fool you, this is a team in severe decline. Rittich allowed five goals before getting yanked against the Sabres on Tuesday night. If you looked at how Los Angeles has been playing on the road lately, this was hardly a surprise. During that stretch, they have allowed 3.82 even-strength goals per 60 minutes; the highest number on the slate by nearly half a goal. We are going to keep attacking the Kings on the road until they prove they can turn it around defensively.
Edmonton Oilers (EDM1 - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid)
We played Edmonton at home on Tuesday night and they popped off for eight goals against Detroit. Now they head to the road to face the Blues. St. Louis has been a team we have picked on at home this year many times to great success. They appear to have shown much improvement recently, but that improvement isn’t sustainable if you look at the advanced data. St. Louis has allowed only two even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten games, but their expected goals allowed is over 30% higher. They’ve been saved by excellent goaltending, but if Jordan Binnington slips at all then the Oilers could be in for another huge night.
This is especially likely as the Oilers have room for improvement in their road games. They have scored 2.7 even-strength goals per 60 minutes in their last ten road games, but they were expected to have scored 3.13 goals per 60 minutes based on advanced data. It’s scary to think that Edmonton could get better, but when you pair their potential for positive offense regression with the expected negative regression for St. Louis it’s not hard to see Edmonton exploding for another game like we saw on Tuesday night. Even on a 12-game slate, it’s hard to completely fade the Oilers in this spot.
Others in consideration: TB2, NYR2, OTT1, CGY1
Top Value Stack of the Night
Dallas Stars (DAL3 - Wyatt Johnston, Jamie Benn, Ty Dellandrea)
The Penguins’ third line may have a better matchup as Chicago just gave up a monster game to the Vancouver third line, but Dallas’ matchup tonight isn’t too far behind and they are a far more talented group of players than what Pittsburgh will be rolling out. Both Wyatt Johnston and Jamie Benn are top-six quality forwards who just happen to play on a third line. Neither are particularly consistent players, but their upside is fantastic for their prices. Johnston has double-digit fantasy points in five of his last eleven games, and Benn has done that in three of his last nine games. They both also get power play time, giving them extra chances for a cheap goal or assist.
The reason we are focused on this line rather than one of the top lines for Dallas is that it’s likely that they will get the most ice time against Nashville’s defensive pairing of Josi/Barrie, who are awful at home (3.75 expected goals per 60 minutes). Any time we can attack a defensive pairing with those kinds of numbers, we do. That we can do so with a cheap stack makes this line even more attractive; pairing nicely with some of the more expensive stacks on the slate.
Others in consideration: PIT3, LAK3, NJ3, ANH3
Top Goalies to Target
Thatcher Demko (Vancouver Canucks)
Thatcher Demko was $8,500 on Tuesday night when he was on the road in Chicago. While the matchup was strong, Demko is just a different goalie on the road than he is at home. He put up a respectable 13.7 DraftKings points, but he hardly paid off his price tag. Tonight he’s at home, where he’s a far better goalie, and he’s been priced down to $8,100. Yes, please! Demko scores 42% more fantasy points in home starts, allowing nearly half a goal fewer per game. He’s scored 16 or more DraftKings points in six of his last eight home starts.
The Red Wings have a decent offense, but they aren’t great on the road. Over their last ten road games, they have scored less than two even-strength goals per 60 minutes, so it’s not like that should scare us off of Demko tonight. His price point makes him ideal for cash, but if you’re going with a balanced lineup in tournaments he is usable there as well.
Others in consideration (GPP): Alex Nedeljkovic, Anthony Stolarz, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Joey Daccord, Samuel Ersson, Sam Montembeault
Others in consideration (Cash): Jeremy Swayman, Jacob Markstrom
