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This is the largest slate we’ve had since the All-Star Break ended, but big doesn’t mean bad. This is a loaded slate, and with no game in the really late window it’s one you won’t have to stay up late to watch. There’s some great value already opening up, and that should allow you to build well-balanced lineups with plenty of upside.
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options, including five tournaments that have an entry fee of $15 or less and a top prize of $1,000 or more, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $20,000. Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $3,000 first prize. There is money to be won tonight, so let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. I aim to help you narrow your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Ottawa Senators (OTT1 - Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris, Drake Batherson)
The Ottawa Senators are playing their best hockey of the season right now. Over their last ten home games, they have scored 3.33 even-strength goals per 60 minutes, which is an elite scoring rate. Advanced data shows that this production is legitimate, as their expected scoring output is still over three goals per 60 minutes. The trio of Norris, Batherson, and Tkachuk are outstanding at home, scoring nearly ten more DraftKings points per game than they do on the road. The last time they faced Ottawa this line scored over 42 DraftKings points; a more than suitable return given their prices.
The defensive pairing that they’ll spend the majority of their time on the ice facing is the duo of Boqvist/Werenski, a pairing that’s allowing nearly 13 high-danger chances per 60 minutes on the road this year. Overall, Columbus has been lucky on the road recently, allowing 11% fewer goals per 60 minutes than expected. Elvis Merzlikins should be in net, and he’s not going to be any help for the Blue Jackets. He’s allowed three or more goals in eight of his last ten starts, and for the year he’s allowed 3.45 goals per game on the road.
Toronto Maple Leafs (TOR1 - Auston Matthews, Mitchell Marner, Matthew Knies)
This is such a good matchup for the Maple Leafs. The Blues are not a good road defense, yet somehow they’ve only allowed 2.28 even-strength goals per 60 minutes in their last ten road games. They are very due for a massive letdown game. During those same ten games, they allowed a slate-high 13.58 high-danger chances and their expected goals allowed per 60 minutes is 34% higher. They cannot maintain their current level of play, and few teams in the league are better equipped to lay the wood than Toronto.
Auston Matthews has come out of the All-Star Break scorching hot. In the three games that Toronto has played since games resumed, Matthew has a combined five goals and assists and 15 shots on goal. He has scored 26 or more fantasy points in each of his last two games. Mitchell Marner has matched his scoring output, recording five goals and assists over his last two games, while Matthew Knies has shockingly (not shocking at all) upped his production since his return to the top line with a combined three goals and assists over his last two games. Knies is only $3,500, making this line shockingly affordable.
Morgan Rielly, the normal point man for Toronto’s power play, was a naughty boy and is likely to be suspended for this game. That opens up a spot for Jake McCabe at $3,600 to fill Rielly’s role; another piece to lower the average player cost of a Toronto stack. If you’re rolling Leafs, then you should add in McCabe for the extra correlation and to help with the ownership game as few people will go four deep with a Toronto stack.
Edmonton Oilers (EDM1 - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid)
Usually, you don’t need a reason to play the Oilers, but looking at their data may give you some pause. Over their last ten home games, they have scored a measly 2.17 even-strength goals per 60 minutes. That seems almost impossible for a team with this kind of offensive talent, and advanced data agrees. Edmonton’s expected scoring output over those ten home games is 50% higher than what they actually produced. They are playing so much better than their scoring has shown and it won’t be long before they explode.
Detroit could be the elixir that turns Edmonton’s fortunes around, having allowed 3.39 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten road games. Alex Lyon has allowed three goals in each of his last two games, and three of his last five games. This could be a perfect storm for a monster game for the Oilers.
Others in consideration: DAL1, TOR2, BUF1, WSH1, NJ2
Top Value Stack of the Night
Buffalo Sabres (BUF3 - Alex Tuch, Casey Mittlestadt, Jordan Greenway)
The Sabres are a sticky play tonight, as the Kings defense has been playing poorly on the road, but David Rittch has incredible stats so far this year; allowing three or more goals in only 25% of his games. Those defensive stats, 3.4 even-strength goals allowed per 60 minutes over their last ten road games, win out and put the Sabres as a play to look at tonight.
The top line for Buffalo is the more talented line, but their third line looks to have the better matchup and comes in significantly cheaper. The matchup they are anticipated to have is against the defensive pairing of Spence/Englund. They have allowed 3.16 goals per 60 minutes on the road this year, which is easily the most generous number of all the Kings’ defensive pairings.
Others in consideration: COL3, WSH3, VAN3
Top Goalies to Target
Thatcher Demko (Vancouver Canucks)
It often makes sense to spend down at goalie, but tonight the two best options are the most expensive players. Stuart Skinner is in a very good spot, but Thatcher Demko is the better play of the two. He’s been great all year long as one of the most consistent netminders in the game. He’s got a high floor and an even higher ceiling, and tonight he’s got one of the best matchups in the sport.
The Chicago Blackhawks offense wasn’t good WITH Connor Bedard, but they’ve been downright putrid without him. Demko has faced Chicago twice this year, and he’s averaging 22.4 DraftKings points in those games. It may be tough to get all the way up to Demko in tournaments, but in cash games there’s more than enough value to lock him in.
Others in consideration (GPP): Alex Lyon, Joel Hofer, Sam Montembeault, Charlie Lindgren, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, David Rittich
Others in consideration (Cash): Stuart Skinner, Ilya Sorokin, Linus Ullmark
