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As is usual for a Saturday, we have a manageable slate of only seven games tonight. Your big decision point, as usual, is going to be if you want to roll with the Oilers or if you want to fade them. The reason that tonight’s Edmonton decision is so important is that it’s the only game on the slate that doesn’t start in the early window. Do you want to build up a big lead and sweat out the Oilers, or do you want to load up on a late-game hammer and home to make a run as the East Coast heads to bed?
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options, including three tournaments that have an entry fee of $15 or less and a top prize of $1,000 or more, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $10,000. Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $2,000 first prize. There is money to be won tonight, so let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. I aim to help you narrow your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Tampa Bay Lightning (TB1 - Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov)
If you’ve gotten used to reading the Heat Map, you’re going to have some questions as to why the Lightning is considered a top stack tonight. They haven’t been playing particularly well, scoring a meager 1.45 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten road games. It’s not like they’ve been unlucky either, as their expected goals per game over that stretch are still under two goals per 60 minutes. So why do we like the Lighting tonight?
This recommendation is solely based on the matchup for Tampa Bay. Columbus has allowed over three even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten home games, but that’s not the only reason we like Tampa. Columbus will have their “top” defensive pairing of Werenski/Boqvist matched up against Tampa’s top line, and that’s one of the best matchups a team can have in the entire NHL. Werenski and Boqvist have played over 78 minutes together this year, and they have an xGA/60 (expected goals allowed per 60 minutes) of 3.94, allowing nearly 17 high-danger chances per 60 minutes.
This type of defense could pass against a lesser offense, but the trio of Stamkos, Kucherov, and Point is one of the most lethal lines in all of hockey…even when they aren’t playing their best. It also will help the Lightning if Elvis Merzlikins is in net for Columbus, as projected, as he’s allowed three or more goals in 20 of his last 26 starts. Data be darned, the Lightning’s top line is in a great spot, and they could go overlooked if the general public doesn’t want to dig into the matchups.
Toronto Maple Leafs (TOR2 - Tyler Bertuzzi, John Tavares, William Nylander)
The Leafs have come out of the All-Star Break on a bit of an offensive roll, scoring eight goals in the two games they’ve played this week. John Tavares and William Nylander have been particularly hot, combining for four goals and five assists in those two games. Tyler Bertuzzi doesn’t have quite the same upside as his linemates, but he’s done his part in those games, recording one assist and taking six shots on goal in those two games. That’s acceptable production for his value price of only $3,400.
Ottawa is a team we want to pick on, as they’ve been generous to opposing offenses over their last ten home games, allowing 3.56 even-strength goals per 60 minutes. Their defense hasn’t been their biggest detriment, instead, it’s been the goaltending that holding them back. Joonas Korpisalo is in net tonight, and he’s allowed 3.39 goals per game at home this year. He has allowed 14% more goals than expected this year, letting his defense down with regularity. The reason we are looking at the second line for the Leafs rather than their top line is that they’ll spend the majority of their time on the ice facing the Senators’ most generous defensive pairing of Brannstrom/Hamonic, while Auston Matthews and company will face tougher matchups most of the night.
Nashville Predators (NSH1 - Gustav Nyquist, Ryan O’Reilly, Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi)
Nashville comes into this game well-rested and ready to roll, as this is their first game since the All-Star Break. Meanwhile, Arizona is playing its second game in three nights, having flown across the country after playing Vegas on Thursday night. The Predators needed the rest, as they’ve been struggling at home recently, scoring only 1.76 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten games, a number that is 26% lower than their expected goal output over that stretch. Arizona is a great team to face when your offense is in the doldrums, as they have struggled defensively most of the year. Their 2.63 even-strength goals allowed over their last ten road games aren’t eye-popping, but they’ve got spots to attack. The defensive pairing of Durzi/Moser should see a ton of ice time against Nashville’s top line, and they allow an above-average time of possession to opposing offenses along with 13.85 high-danger chances per 60 minutes on the road. The Preds are not at the level of Toronto or Tampa Bay tonight, but they are a cheaper option that can be the base of a well-balanced tournament lineup.
Others in consideration: WPG1, PIT1, CAR1, PHI1, OTT1
Top Value Stack of the Night
Carolina Hurricanes (CAR3 - Jordan Staal, Jesper Fast, Jordan Martinook)
Every piece of data that we look at in the Heat Map indicates that the Carolina Hurricanes are in line for a big game tonight. Their offense has been middling, averaging a mere 2.34 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten home games. Advanced data suggests that they’ve been unlucky as their expected goal output was 18% higher during that time period.
Meanwhile, the New Jersey Devils' advanced data shows that they should be trending in the opposite direction. Their expected even-strength goals allowed per 60 minutes is 29% higher than the actual goals they’ve allowed over their last ten road games. This is a team that’s due to get rolled the second Nico Daws has an off game.
In fact, that regression is already starting to trend in Carolina’s direction, as Daws has allowed three or more goals in each of his last three starts, including a three-goal allowed game to Carolina two weeks ago. While the top line for the Hurricanes may have more upside, the matchup for their third line is the one we want to attack, as it’s likely they’ll face the Devils' defensive duo of Nemec/Bahl, a pairing that allows more time of possession for their opponents than the other two pairings on New Jersey.
Others in consideration: CAR3, WPG3
Top Goalies to Target
Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg Jets)
After a scorching hot run, Hellebuyck has come back down to earth, allowing three goals in each of his last three games. Still, hits underlying stats are outstanding and he’s one of the best goalies in the game. Maybe he’s not a play if the price point was at $8,500, but at just $8,000 Hellebuyck presents as a strong value tonight. The thing that’s going to play most in his favor is that the Pittsburgh Penguins are one of the more aggressive teams in the league, meaning that Helley is going to get a chance to pad his stats as he faces a high volume of shots.
Hellebuyck has faced 30 or more shots 15 times this year and he’s scored 16 or more DraftKings points in all but one of them. That one time was back in October, meaning that Hellebuyck is on a run of 14 straight games of high-level production when he faces 30 or more shots on goal. Pittsburgh averages 33.2 shots on goal per game this year, so they are more likely than the average team to produce the volume we need tonight. Helley is good for both cash and GPP lineups tonight.
Others in consideration (GPP): Tristan Jarry, David Rittich, Juuse Saros, Joey Daccord
Others in consideration (Cash): Samuel Ersson, Stuart Skinner
