Predicting the Top-10 Finishers in ERA for 2020

Earned Run Average (ERA) is one of the most important stats when it comes to pitching. The best pitchers in the league have the lowest ERA, because, quite simply, if a pitcher doesn’t let up runs, they are inherently more valuable.

Determining the top ERA leaders for the upcoming season can be extremely useful, because then you can predict who the top pitchers will be in 2020. Although many of these names seem obvious, getting the order right can help determine where to strike first in the early rounds of a fantasy draft.

Before we dive into the list, let's review the leaderboard from last season and determine how to create a reliable prediction for ERA.

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Forecasting the Future

Below are the top-10 ERA leaders from the 2019 season:

There were definitely a few surprises on this list. First and foremost, I don’t think anyone could have predicted Ryu would lead the league in ERA. Soroka had a nice breakout campaign, while Jack Flaherty had an elite second half where he posted a 0.91 ERA. Gray put himself back on the map and looked like the Sonny Gray from his days with the Oakland Athletics.

The rest of the pitchers aren’t very surprising, as most of them have been bonafide aces for quite some time now. Oddly enough, ERA from a previous season is the worst predictor of ERA for the following season. So what is the best predictor of ERA? That goes to the metric SIERA (skill interactive ERA) which tries to eliminate factors pitchers cannot control and considers balls in play. For instance, a pitcher who gives up a lot of weak contact will have a good SIERA.

Below are the top-10 in SIERA from the 2019 season. 

This is definitely a good place to start when looking into future performances. While there are about a hundred other factors to dive into when looking at a pitcher stats, SIERA is known to be a staple stat for a reason. A lot of these pitchers will be in the top-10 below and SIERA just further cements our rankings.

Jacob deGrom, New York Mets

Of qualified pitchers in the past two seasons, deGrom has the lowest ERA by a large margin. His ERA over the two years was 2.05, with the next closest being Justin Verlander at 2.55. deGrom utilizes his pitches extremely well by consistently throwing his fastball up in the zone and his sliders down low. With deGrom in his prime, it is very hard to imagine him slowing down any time soon.

Projected ERA: 2.57

Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals

Weirdly enough, it seems as if people perceive that Scherzer had a bad 2019, but he finished the year with a 2.92 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 2.93 SIERA, and 35.1 K%. Besides the decrease in innings pitched, Scherzer hasn’t changed at all. His fastball was still elite as he pounds the strike zone with it to set up one of the best sliders in the game.

Last season, Scherzer’s slider had a 48 O-Swing%, 46.6 Zone%, and 26.6 SwStr%, which are all elite numbers. Scherzer has complete control over his arsenal, and while his age (35) and back injury isn’t ideal, having the second-best SIERA in '19 lets you know that when he is on the mound, he will be an elite pitcher. 

Projected ERA: 2.65

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

While some people might be surprised to see the 2019 SIERA leader, and arguably the league's best pitcher at number three, Cole seems due for some ERA regression. Yankee Stadium and the city of New York are a beast in itself. We saw James Paxton last year have an adjustment period, and I think Cole will go through the same thing. 

When pitchers sign big contracts with new teams, they tend to overthrow; whether it be from pure adrenaline or trying to prove their worth. Cole is an amazing pitcher and will certainly have another great year, but with the assumption of an adjustment period, he probably won’t take the ERA crown.

Projected ERA: 2.70

Justin Verlander, Houston Astros

Verlander has been one of the league's best pitchers for over a decade now. Verlander has one of the best fastballs in the league, as it produced a 14.3 SwStr%, .235 batting average against, and topped out at 99.6 MPH last year. There is some worry here that leaves us to believe he won’t repeat his 2.58 ERA.

The home runs were a big issue last year, and if his control starts to falter, along with his BB/9 rising above the 2.0 mark, we could see quite the downfall. Verlander is also 37 years old and seems to be reaching the age where that cliff is looming. Besides those two speculations, Verlander doesn’t seem to be slowing down at all and you can expect another great season from him.

Projected ERA: 2.77

Mike Clevinger, Cleveland Indians

Across 126 innings in 2019, Clevinger provided a 2.71 ERA, 2.49 FIP, and 3.31 SIERA. With recent injury news projecting Clevinger likely missing a month, he should still be a polarizing player. If Clevinger qualified last year, he would have had the third-best ERA in the Majors. Clevinger is armed with a solid fastball and lethal slider that produced a 20.8 SwStr%, .174 batting average against, and 41 wRC+.

What has really catapulted Clevinger into an elite company was the increase in velocity with his fastball. In '18, he averaged 93.6 MPH and in '19, it went up to 95.4 MPH. With his newfound velocity and slider, Clevinger should produce similar results compared to last year.

Projected ERA: 2.80

Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers

Surprisingly, Buehler did not finish in the top ten for ERA last year, but he did finish in the top ten in SIERA. Buehler does everything you look for in a pitcher; he has a deep arsenal, great command and control, and is very consistent. Don’t be surprised if you see Buehler as a top-three pitcher after 2020. 

Projected ERA: 2.95

Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals

Besides health concerns, there really aren’t any weaknesses to Strasburg. When he is on the mound, he is a clear ace, which you can see by looking at his past ERA. His highest ERA ever in a season was 3.74, and he has had a sub 3.50 ERA in six full seasons. Hopefully, we see another healthy year from Strasburg, which should lead to a top-10 placement in ERA. 

Projected ERA 3.05

Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays

Snell went from the luckiest pitcher in 2018, to perhaps the unluckiest in '19. Snell finished last year with a 4.29 ERA in 107 innings pitched, but it came with a 3.32 FIP, .343 BABIP, and 3.56 SIERA. Snell actually didn’t lose a beat from his '18 Cy Young Award-winning season, as his SwStr% in '19 was at a career-high 17.7%.

His pitches were still just as good as well, as three of them had a SwStr% of 20% or higher. Look for Snell to rebound big time in 2020 and cement himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball. 

Projected ERA: 3.15

Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds

Castillo is very close to becoming the full package. Castillo strikes out a lot of hitters with an above-average strikeout rate of 28.9%. He also lets up a lot of weak contact as his GB% of 55.2% was second amongst qualifying pitchers. Castillo’s only downfall is the walks, as he had a 10.1 walk percentage. If Castillo can learn to throw in the zone more, he could become one of the top starters in the league.

Projected ERA: 3.17

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Much like Scherzer, a lot of people have the perception that Kershaw had a bad season in 2019. His 3.03 ERA last season was the first time his ERA was over three since 2008. He still has that great fastball/slider combo and is only 31 years old. Even though Kershaw will probably pitch only 170 innings, they will almost certainly be quality, and we could once again see him in the top-10 for ERA. 

Projected ERA: 3.20

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