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Welcome to the RotoBaller NCAA March Madness 'Full Bracket Prediction'. The 68-team field is officially set, and I hope you were lucky enough to have your favorite school make it. North Carolina probably shouldn't be in, but you can read about that in a different spot. You're here for last-minute office pool bracket picks!
Here’s your yearly reminder that you have a 1 in 9.2 QUINTILLION chance of a perfect bracket ? pic.twitter.com/gQDQ7f1xwG
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) March 17, 2025
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Before I lead you as the conductor on this journey, let's make one thing clear. Your odds of producing a perfect bracket are 9.2 quintillion to 1. To put that number into perspective, you are just about as likely to have all of these things happen during your lifetime. Want to be president? One in 10 million. Think you are the next great actor? One in 1.5 million. How about winning an Olympic medal? One in 662,000. While this is discouraging news for anyone trying to make history, there are ways to increase your odds if you stick to a perfect strategy. Look at Ronald Reagan. He found a way to achieve two of the three situations mentioned above. If only he were a slightly better swimmer, Reagan could have accomplished the impossible, and he still wouldn't have a perfect bracket.
There are a few things you should actively be looking into when breaking down your bracket. For starters, Vegas is usually right. That doesn't mean to take all the favorites, but if you start selecting too many underdogs in the opening round- especially ones that the public bettors have grown an affinity towards- your bracket can be drawing dead before Saturday. Most mid-major dogs follow the same recipe for upsets. You either have to ugly the game up with strong defense and limited possessions, or you have a deep bench, and everyone can shoot. There isn't usually an in-between. Grand Canyon, Yale, and Oakland all used the latter last year.
Editor's Note: Be sure to check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis, including a guide on how to fill out your brackets. Read our March Madness picks, sleepers, busts, and predictions for the regions. If you want to match wits with other RotoBaller readers and writers, join the March Madness ESPN Group here.
East Region First Round
(1) Duke vs. (16) Mount St. Mary's
Duke won't be tested here. They just need to make sure no one else gets hurt. Pick: Duke
(8) Mississippi State vs. (9) Baylor
This is one of the bigger contrasts of styles of the first round. Mississippi State plays faster, but they aren't a great shooting team. They also don't defend well. Baylor averages about six fewer possessions per game than the Bulldogs and they thrive on defense.
Baylor won't mind if Mississippi State speeds them up. This team can run as well. Baylor is a very good offensive-rebounding team and isn't too shabby on the other end, either. The Bulldogs aren't a good shooting team and will struggle with a team that can keep them off the boards. Pick: Baylor
(5) Oregon vs. (12) Liberty
These two teams are very similar. They play fast and shoot a lot of threes. The difference is that Liberty makes A LOT more than Oregon does. Nate Bittle will be a problem for Liberty, especially when it comes to rebounding. Liberty is not a team that tries to score near the basket. They can take Bittle out of this game by raining threes. The Flames shot 39% from distance on the season. That's sixth in the country.
The Flames fit the profile of a team that can pull an upset. They are one of the best shooting teams in the country; just don't put them on the line. They are 345th in free-throw shooting. To win this, Liberty will need to get out front early and stay there. Pick: Liberty
(4) Arizona vs. (13) Akron
Tommy Lloyd has been a favorite in all seven of his games at Arizona and has covered only one, losing three outright...
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) March 19, 2025
Akron is the smallest team in the field, but they still hustle and rebound well. This is an excellent shooting team from the outside, which is one of the few things Arizona struggles with. This is not a great matchup for the Wildcats. Arizona's size is going to keep Akron off the boards.
The Zips struggled with bigger teams that slowed them down this year (St. Mary's and Yale). They'll hang around for a while, but Arizona's size will be an issue. However, don't pick Arizona to go very far. If Caleb Love goes cold, the Wildcats could lose in the first round. Pick: Arizona, but it's close.
(6) BYU vs. (11) Virginia Commonwealth
BYU got picked off as a six-seed last year. It could happen again. BYU is one of the hottest teams in the country, but this is not a good draw for them at all. This pod in Denver is brutal. Both teams scored a lot of points thanks to good shooting and excellent work on the boards.
I see lots of BYU fans worried about VCU’s defense.
How did BYU fare against defenses rated higher than VCU per KenPom?ISU - 1st and 2nd most points allowed by a Coach Otz ISU defense ever. ?
WVU - Most points allowed all year ?
Kansas - tied for the largest points… pic.twitter.com/w6CsrtPwrj— BoozeCougs (@BoozeCougs) March 18, 2025
BYU's break comes from this game being in Denver. Provo is also in the mountains and it's not that far away from Denver. BYU will be well-represented and used to the altitude. VCU is going to put up a fight, but I think they fade late. Pick: BYU
(3) Wisconsin vs. (14) Montana
Both teams score a lot of points. Montana is a much better team from the floor, but Wisconsin piles up points by getting extra possessions. The Grizzlies are one of the worst rebounding teams in the country and the second-worst in the tournament.
They're in trouble, but good shooting could make this interesting. So could the altitude. Montana is used to it. Wisconsin? Not so much... Pick: Wisconsin
(7) St. Mary's vs. (10) Vanderbilt
St. Mary's has the third-slowest pace in the entire tournament. Vanderbilt is in the top third. Both teams are good at taking care of the ball, but the Gaels are better at taking it away. Ironically, Vanderbilt did better in slower-paced games this year. It may not be the way that they choose to play, but it better suits them. St. Mary's just does it better. Pick: St. Mary's
(2) Alabama vs. (15) Robert Morris
There's no way to paint this in a positive light for the Colonials. They didn't do well when teams got out and ran the court. That's all Alabama does. Pick: Alabama
West Region First Round
(1) Florida vs. (16) Norfolk State
The Spartans are the best 16-seed, but that's not saying much. It's a weak crop this year. Florida is way too balanced to be tested here. Pick: Florida
(8) Connecticut vs. (9) Oklahoma
What do Quad 1 wins mean? Oklahoma had seven. UConn had six. I expect a close game here and I don't expect either team to beat Florida. Therefore, I'm being a homer and picking my team. Oklahoma is good enough to win this, but they don't fit the profile of teams who frustrated UConn this year.
If I were filling out your bracket, I would likely pick Connecticut, but I wouldn't be much of a fan if I didn't believe it. I'll lose one point picking my team. Pick: Oklahoma
(5) Memphis vs. (12) Colorado State
Watching Nique Clifford vs. PJ Haggerty is going to be fun in this one. The Rams are favored in Vegas because Memphis is overseeded and may be without Tyrese Hunter. This is one of those situations where we need to pay attention to the desert. Those casinos weren't built because the oddsmakers are wrong.
Memphis plays fast and shoots straight. Colorado State usually tries to slow things down, but that's not how they finished the season. The metrics are glowing during the Rams' 10-game winning streak. They are top 50 in both offense and defense this year and are peaking at the right time. Pick: Colorado State
(4) Maryland vs. (13) Grand Canyon
Since Bryce Drew became the head coach, Grand Canyon is 22-5 ATS in the month of March pic.twitter.com/AR6u6ntZcP
— Barstool Gambling (@stoolgambling) March 15, 2025
You remember Bryce Drew, right? The guy from Valparaiso who hit the game-winning shot against Mississippi in 1998? That's him. He knows the NCAA Tournament, and any team that he coaches is dangerous in said tournament.
This is a tough draw for GCU this year. Maryland has a nice blend of old and young. Tyon Grant-Foster goes to the rim every chance he gets. That won't fly against the Terps. Pick: Maryland
(6) Missouri vs. (11) Drake
Don't you just love these giant contrasts in style? Drake is BY FAR the slowest team in the tournament. They routinely take 30 seconds to find a shot. Missouri will run you out of the building.
Only two teams (Texas and Texas A&M) succeeded in slowing Missouri down this year. Missouri lost both games. That's why Drake has become a trendy upset pick. Me? I'm not on board yet. Missouri has too many athletes. Pick: Missouri
(3) Texas Tech vs. (14) UNC Wilmington
Texas Tech is seventh in the NET rankings, suggesting that they may be slightly underseeded. This was done to get their pod closer to Lubbock. Wilmington is a solid team, but nothing stands out as a reason for them to hang around Pick: Texas Tech
(7) Kansas vs. (10) Arkansas
The winner of this gets to finalize the pronunciation of "kansas." Kansas says it's KAN-ZUS. Arkansas says it's KAN-SAW. We can finally have some clarity.
Kansas is the trendy pick here, but this is the worst Kansas team of the Bill Self era. They mimic their coach. Kansas plays for SELF this year, not the team. Pick: Arkan-SAW
(2) St. John's vs. (15) Omaha
I'm old enough to remember when Trev Alberts cut every sport besides hockey and rasslin' from Omaha's roster as the athletic director. Omaha does have many sports back now, and it's a good thing they do. This team is fun to watch.
The fun probably ends here. St. John's is one of the worst-shooting teams from beyond the arc in the tournament. Omaha allows the best shooting percentage from a distance. St. John's can be had at some point, but it won't be here. Pick: St. John's
South Region First Round
(1) Auburn vs. (16) Alabama State
I hope the Hornets enjoy their experience. Hey, they were able to pick up an NCAA Tournament win. It's not all a loss. Pick: Auburn
(8) Louisville vs. (9) Creighton
Dear Big Blue Nation:
You like a Pope. We like a pope.
You hate Louisville. We temporarily hate Louisville.
We both dig blue and white.
Anyway, if you could buy up tickets at your arena Thursday and root against your rival, that’d be swell.
Go blue teams,
A Creighton fan
— truebluejays (@truebluejs) March 16, 2025
It would be the ultimate troll job for Kentucky to show up and cheer against Louisville. I kind of expect them to do it. I know that every time the NCAA Tournament comes through here, I go, no matter which teams show up. I've seen some good ones.
The Kansas title team from 2008. Norfolk State downing Missouri in 2012. Larry Johnson was in the crowd when UNLV was here in 2008. Michael Beasley and Kansas State were against USC and OJ Mayo in 2008. The Kansas-Duke regional final in 2018. Wichita State and Fred VanVleet beat Kansas in 2015.
Oklahoma hasn't been here once, and I haven't cared. I go for the spectacle. There's not much like it. If Texas ever showed up here, you know I would be there cheering against them. I expect that Kentucky fans will do the same. Pick: Creighton
(5) Michigan vs. (12) UC San Diego
At least one 12 seed has upset a 5 in all but five NCAA Tournaments since expansion in 1985. It's likely to happen again this year. I see a lot of social media touts on the Tritons, and I get it. They are one of the most efficient teams in the country and rarely turn the ball over.
Michigan got a bad seed here and an even worse matchup. Vegas still shows more bets on Michigan, but the money is about even. That means a lot of sharps are on San Diego. Pick: UC San Diego
(4) Texas A&M vs. (13) Yale
The Aggies lost four of the last six games and still were rewarded with this seed. An Ivy League team has three wins in the last two NCAA Tournaments. 15-seed Princeton made the Sweet Sixteen in 2023. Yale knocked off Auburn last year. This is set up for Yale to do it again. Texas A&M is the worst-shooting team in the field. Pick: Yale
(6) Mississippi vs. (11) North Carolina
North Carolina put up 95 tonight against San Diego State and shot 52.6% from the field and 58.3% from three-point range.
As good as anyone has ever played offensively against the Aztecs under Brian Dutcher.
Ole Miss is up next for the Tar Heels.
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 19, 2025
We got the good Carolina last night against San Diego State. Ole Miss is similar to the Aztecs. They're a better-shooting team, but they rely on being tougher than their opponents. The Heels already proved they could beat that. Pick: North Carolina
(3) Iowa State vs. (14) Lipscomb
The metrics like Lipscomb and Iowa State will be without Keshon Gilbert for the NCAA Tournament. The Bisons are a live dog if you're looking for the 14-3 upset. Such an upset has happened five times in the last 10 years, including Oakland beating Kentucky last year. I'm not taking Iowa State to go far, but they are still a well-rounded team without Gilbert. Pick: Iowa State
(7) Marquette vs. (10) New Mexico
The Lobos burned me last year and they had a better team with JT Toppin. I can't go by what happened last year. Neither should you. The Mountain West has taken a lot of heat for poor NCAA Tournament performances. San Diego State's "performance" in the First Four last night did nothing to help the cause.
I'm all for following trends, but I actually like this matchup for New Mexico. Donovan Dent is a different player this year. He's the nation's leading scorer, and Marquette has lost a lot defensively with Tyler Kolek now in the NBA. Pick: New Mexico
(2) Michigan State vs. (15) Bryant
15 is the new 12. A 15-seed has ousted a two-seed in three of the last four tournaments. Each time (2021 Oral Roberts, 2022 St. Peter's, and 2023 Princeton), that team made the Sweet Sixteen. If that were to happen again this year, this is the place.
Bryant hung with St. John's for a half, even without Earl Timberlake. This is a team that is big (their shortest starter is 6-foot-5), defends well, and isn't afraid to get out and run. Bryant has the fastest pace in this region and is only behind Alabama in the Tournament.
Michigan State is a well-balanced team, but they would rather not be paced up. If Bryant can get out and run, thus making Michigan State uncomfortable, we could see history again. Pick: Bryant
Midwest Region First Round
(1) Houston vs. (16) SIU-Edwardsville
The only thing of interest in this one is J'Wan Roberts's ankle. Pick: Houston
(8) Gonzaga vs. (9) Georgia
Gonzaga is the first team in the NET era to finish Top 15 in both the NET and predictive metric average and not receive a Top 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Selection Committee gave Gonzaga an 8 seed.
I feel bad for 9 seed Georgia, a healthy 6.5 point underdog in the Round of…
— JBR Bracketology (@JBRBracketology) March 17, 2025
This is a brutal draw for both Gonzaga and Houston. Gonzaga is eighth in the NET rankings and ninth in the RPI. How in the world are they seeded this low? Not only that, but Georgia is not a great matchup for them. Gonzaga is one of the tournament's fastest teams but can play slowly. They proved that in the WCC final. Pick: Gonzaga
(5) Clemson vs. (12) McNeese
McNeese was a trendy pick to pull the upset last year. They are again this year. As far as I can tell, it's more due to Clemson's NCAA Tournament ineptitude than actual metrics. Clemson hasn't made it out of the second round in its last two trips to the dance.
You know me; I'm a metrics guy. These teams are similar, but Clemson does nearly everything better. McNeese will scare Clemson, but I don't think they'll win. Pick: Clemson
(4) Purdue vs. (13) High Point
Purdue has lost six of the last nine heading into the NCAA Tournament. A large part of that is teams limiting Braden Smith. This is a winnable game for High Point, but I still see a lot of sharps on Purdue, thanks to the Smith factor. Even if Purdue wins this, I don't see them taking down Clemson, so I'm going with the very live dog. Pick: High Point
(6) Illinois vs. (11) Xavier
This wasn't the expected matchup for Illinois, but it suits them better. Xavier's play over the last month has turned the right heads, but they can't keep up with the Illini. Pick: Illinois
(3) Kentucky vs. (14) Troy
Most likely upset by seed-line according to win probabilities at https://t.co/cegyfz96ax:
16 v 1 Norfolk State > Florida (3.6%)
15 vs 2 Bryant > Michigan St. (5.7%)
14 vs 3 Troy > Kentucky (20%)
13 vs 4 Yale > Texas A&M (30%)
12 vs 5 Colorado State > Memphis (53%)
11 vs 6 VCU >…— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) March 18, 2025
Kentucky plays fast and shoots threes well. That overshadows their overall poor shooting and high number of turnovers. Troy is one of the better defensive teams in the field and has really good perimeter defense. This is one of the worst possible draws for Kentucky. Pick: Troy
(7) UCLA vs. (10) Utah State
This is another place where both teams are similar. If it weren't for the Mountain West tripping up in the NCAA Tournament over the last few years, this would be a trendier pick. UCLA's bigs are big but don't play big. That takes away the advantage. Utah State also has the better guards in Ian Martinez and Mason Falslev. Pick: Utah State
(2) Tennessee vs. (15) Wofford
Wofford was in the middle of the pack in the Southern Conference. Tennessee nearly won the SEC and SEC Tournament. Pick: Tennessee
East Region Second Round
(1) Duke vs. (9) Baylor
Both teams are young, but only one team has Cooper Flagg, maybe. Not knowing the status of Flagg before the NCAA Tournament is rough. This is another game that Duke can likely win without Flagg, so I'm staying with them. If Baylor gets hot, though, look out! Pick: Duke
(4) Arizona vs. (12) Liberty
Liberty is better at being Arizona than Arizona is. Love can and will shoot with anyone. The difference is that Liberty takes- and makes- better shots. The roll continues for the Flames. Pick: Liberty
(3) Wisconsin vs. (6) BYU
I don't really want to pick either team. Both have a good chance of losing in the first round. If both survive, I like BYU. You would think that Wisconsin-BYU would be a slow and physical game. Not anymore. Both teams run and shoot well, but only one plays good defense. Pick: BYU
(2) Alabama vs. (7) St. Mary's
You can bet everything you own that Alabama will be rooting hard for St. Mary's to lose. The Gaels are the slowest team in the region. Alabama is BY FAR the fastest team in the entire tournament. I mentioned before that Alabama isn't nearly as efficient with their shooting this year. This is where that becomes a massive problem. Pick: St. Mary's
West Region Second Round
(1) Florida vs. (9) Oklahoma
I love my team, but Florida destroyed us once. It will happen again. Pick: Florida
(4) Maryland vs. (12) Colorado State
It has been a great run for the Rams, but this is not a great matchup for them. Maryland is fast and furious. The interior will rough up Colorado State Pick: Maryland
(3) Texas Tech vs. (6) Missouri
This is not the first time that Texas Tech has gone into the NCAA Tournament with glowing metrics. They were good last year, but Tech also ran into a buzzsaw in North Carolina State. That was the first first-round exit since 2019. When Tech shows up, they usually get to the second weekend. Pick: Texas Tech
(2) St. John's vs. (10) Arkansas
This is not what I would call a great matchup for Arkansas. However, two months of stats were compiled without Boogie Fland. The freshman sensation will be back for the tournament, and Arkansas hopes to have Adou Thiero back for this game.
If Arkansas has Theiro back for this one, it's a winnable game. If not, St. John's defense, especially at the guard slots, will be a huge problem. Pick: St. John's
South Region Second Round
(1) Auburn vs. (9) Creighton
Creighton might have the best chance in the region to beat Auburn, thanks to Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner and strong guard play. That doesn't mean it's a good chance. Creighton would need to get hot from outside. We can't rely on that. Pick: Auburn
(12) San Diego vs. (13) Yale
This one isn't based so much on the matchup but more on who is more likely to lose in the first round. Considering so many are on the Tritons, it makes me want to move off. Michigan is hearing all that talk. If they show up ready, UCSD is in trouble. Yale is more likely to get to this game. Pick: Yale
(3) Iowa State vs. (11) North Carolina
I do think that Carolina will struggle in this game. I also think that Iowa State is really going to miss Gilbert. The Tar Heels heard all the noise and unequivocally proved that they belonged. They'll be up for this one as well. Pick: North Carolina
(10) New Mexico vs. (15) Bryant
History says that if you're brazen enough to pick a 15-seed in the first round, take them to the Sweet 16. That has happened in three of the last four years. This could be where that trend is bucked. Dent will be a huge issue for Bryant, and the Lobos are almost as big as they are.
The Lobos have the second-fastest pace in this region. Guess who has the highest? That's right...It's Bryant. Bryant has the second-fastest pace in the entire tournament. I really hope we see this matchup because there could be over 180 points. Pick: New Mexico
Midwest Region Second Round
(1) Houston vs. (8) Gonzaga
Midwest Region
Tennessee set up nicely down there.
Clemson/McNeese similar but small gap.
High Point good matchup vs a struggling Purdue.
Illinois/kentucky would have 200+ points but Xavier could be dangerousHouston/Gonzaga gives me nightmares... Winner to me is a F4 team pic.twitter.com/ylPy8uOMCS
— Ryan Hammer? (@ryanhammer09) March 17, 2025
I don't know who in the committee room looked around and thought this would be a good idea for a second-round matchup. All this tells me is that the WCC has no representation, and the Big 12 isn't represented well enough. This should be a Sweet Sixteen matchup at worst.
I will pick what's in front of me, and man, this is tough. I know how good Houston is. I know how good Gonzaga can be. The thing is...Gonzaga hasn't really proven it this year. The metrics love them, but I'm more hesitant. Pick: Houston
(5) Clemson vs. (13) High Point
High Point doesn't have the size to deal with Viktor Lakhin and Ian Schieffelin in the middle. Pick: Clemson
(6) Illinois vs. (14) Troy
If Kentucky makes it to this game, it could go over 200 points. This is another similar situation for Troy as in the first round. The difference is that Illinois is a much better shooting team. Pick: Illinois
(2) Tennessee vs. (10) Utah State
The Utah State guards should get them through the first round. They won't be able to deal with the pressure Tennessee applies with Zakai Zeigler and Jahmai Mashack. Pick: Tennessee
Sweet Sixteen
(1) Duke vs. (12) Liberty
This could be a tougher game for Duke without Flagg if it comes to that. Liberty has been such a good-shooting team this season that I think they can beat anyone. Can they beat anyone three games in a row? That's doubtful. Duke can (and will) dominate the interior. Pick: Duke
(6) BYU vs. (7) St. Mary's
BYU has been better at playing fast this year, but that doesn't mean they can't play a slower-paced game. BYU is a good shooting team and excels at moving the ball to get good shots. St. Mary's won't be able to keep up. Pick: BYU
(1) Auburn vs. (13) Yale
You know that Auburn would love to have this rematch. They spent the offseason shoring up the team around Johni Broome. Auburn created the best team in the country for the better part of two months. Pick: Auburn
(10) New Mexico vs. (11) North Carolina
If this comes to fruition, it would be a best-case scenario for one of these teams. Maybe not the one you think. If New Mexico can dominate the boards (they did during the season), this is a winnable game. If Carolina has the lead down the stretch, New Mexico is in trouble. The Lobos are one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the field. Pick: New Mexico
(1) Florida vs. (4) Maryland
This is a matchup that Florida wouldn't like to see. These teams are very evenly matched. Florida has better guard play, but as good as Florida is up front, Derik Queen is a huge mismatch. Both teams play fast and shoot well, but Maryland is a little better at taking care of the ball and a lot better at shooting free throws. Pick: Maryland
(2) St. John's vs. (3) Texas Tech
Wild stat that surprises me every year
No top 2 seed that started the season unranked has ever made the Final Four.
Recent:
2024 Iowa State (2) - S16
2023 Marquette (2) - R32
2022 Arizona (1) - S16
2021 Alabama (2) - S162025 Michigan State (2) - ???
2025 St. John's (2) - ???— Ryan Hammer? (@ryanhammer09) March 17, 2025
This is where we say adios to St. John's, and not just because of the graphic. Texas Tech is the first team the Johnnies will face that can match the defensive intensity, and Tech is a MUCH better shooting team from all over the court. Pick: Texas Tech
(1) Houston vs. (5) Clemson
I love Houston here, but if Gonzaga doesn't bag Houston, Clemson might. It will be very hard for Houston, a tough but undersized team, to play back-to-back games against teams with a major size advantage. If Roberts's ankle is 100%, that changes my opinion. It might be by this time. Pick: Houston
(2) Tennessee vs. (6) Illinois
It's an all-orange showdown here. Tennessee already beat Illinois once by slowing the game down. Tennessee is among the few teams that can successfully play fast or slow. Illinois struggled this year when slowed down. Pick: Tennessee
Elite Eight
(1) Duke vs. (6) BYU
In 11 straight NCAA Tournaments, a 5-seed or lower has made it to the Final 4...
Here are teams I have as potentially UNDER-seeded this year:
5 Clemson
8 Gonzaga
8 Louisville
9 Oklahoma
9 Baylor
10 Arkansas
10 New Mexico
11 VCU
12 Colorado St
13 High Point
14 Lipscomb— Lock & Cash | Sports Betting (@lockandcash) March 17, 2025
This doesn't feel like a year where a five-seed or lower gets into the Final Four. The top eight seeds are all very tough. However, this is where the Flagg injury (if there still is one by this point) will really be an issue for Duke.
On the surface, BYU doesn't strike me as a Final Four team. They are a strong all-around team, but they don't excel at anything. They remind me of Duke from last year. That Duke team petered out in the Elite Eight.
If Alabama were to make it this far, I would say they would beat Duke. It's the same with Wisconsin. Since my bracket shook out this way, I'll stay with Duke and hope that Flagg is somewhere near healthy. Pick: Duke
(1) Auburn vs. (10) New Mexico
I have my doubts that New Mexico can make it this far. The logic has been sound, but Iowa State, Marquette, and Michigan State are all dangerous teams. If this matchup were to come to fruition, New Mexico would have a puncher's chance at Auburn. I'm sticking with Auburn, though. Maybe they just wanted a little rest before the tourney. Pick: Auburn
(3) Texas Tech vs. (4) Maryland
This bracket shakes out well for the Red Raiders, no matter who they end up facing. The metrics LOVE Texas Tech. Those are teams that usually do well in March. Pick: Texas Tech
(1) Houston vs. (2) Tennessee
I think last year's Houston team is better than this year's. That team lost in the Sweet Sixteen. This is a dream draw for Tennessee. They are exactly the same as Houston, with a bit better defense. Houston plays a touch faster, but Tennessee are masters at controlling the game. This would be an epic Elite Eight matchup. Pick: Tennessee
Final Four
(1) Duke vs. (2) Tennessee
This feels like the moment Tennessee has been building toward since Zakai Zeigler went down right before the 2023 NCAA Tournament. If the saying that defense wins championships is correct, this Tennessee team will cut down more than one set of nets. Pick: Tennessee
(1) Auburn vs. (3) Texas Tech
I got in my head with SEC teams here. I didn't want more than two in the Final Four, and I didn't want more than two 1-seeds. Auburn and Duke were the clear top two teams heading into March. That was a fairly easy pick.
I feel this Texas Tech team is better than the one that made the 2019 Championship game. They aren't without faults, but JT Toppin against Broome would be an epic matchup. Auburn has the better freshman, the more experienced big man, and the better sharpshooter in Miles Kelly. Pick: Auburn
National Title Game
(2) Tennessee vs. (1) Auburn
Auburn beat the Vols by two points in the Jungle and lost by five in Nashville. It's safe to say that Tennessee has figured out how to limit Broome. I still think that Auburn has the best team in the country, but Tennessee has more experience and more depth. This is when those assets will really count. Pick: Tennessee
