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The 2023-24 NFL season has ended, and the Kansas City Chiefs have (yet again) been crowned the Super Bowl champions. That means it is time to start thinking about and debating who will make the playoffs in 2024!
A lot is still unknown about how each team will look in September. The draft is still a little over two months away. We can only rely on rumors and guesswork when speculating which free agents will be re-signed and who will find new teams. There's been a lot of turnover in coaching, with eight new head coaches, 17 new offensive coordinators, and 15 new defensive coordinators.
But let's have fun and make wild predictions. I'm going out on a limb and picking new division winners for almost every division.
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AFC Division Winners
No. 1 Seed: New York Jets
Aaron Rodgers' return (about eight months after he promised to be back) will spark a Jets offense that has elite young wide receivers and running backs who have had their talent wasted. The Jets defense was already playing with the best of them. They allowed 4.6 yards per play, the second-fewest in the league, and they only allowed scoring drives 31.8% of the time, the sixth-lowest rate.
Men only want one thing and it’s disgusting
(Garrett Wilson with competent QB play) pic.twitter.com/XaM29KuNav
— Dylan (@nyjetsfansonly) February 10, 2024
The Bills and Dolphins are both over $50 million over the cap, so they won't be able to make plays in free agency. The Jets have $4 million in cap space, which is still less than most teams. They will have to decide whether to keep S Jordan Whitehead, but key contributors CB Sauce Gardner, DE Jermaine Johnson, and DT Quinnen Williams are locked up.
No. 2 Seed: Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow will be healthy and hungry for a full season, and Tee Higgins will be back for another season after the Bengals stick him with the franchise tag. There are also rumors they might be in the hunt for Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, or a lesser running back.
The team will have to add some playmakers to the defense to shore up a declining secondary. After losing both of their starting safeties, Cincy was one of the worst pass defenses last season. They allowed 7.1 net yards per attempt, the most in the league, and their run defense wasn't much better, allowing 4.7 yards per attempt, the second-most. With $53 million in cap room and just $1.8 million in dead cap, they have the resources to do it.
No. 3 Seed: Kansas City Chiefs
Here is the one team I project to repeat winning its division (for what would be the ninth straight year). Who else would win the AFC West? The Broncos? They are going to be stuck owing Russell Wilson $85 million over the next two years. The Raiders? Like the Broncos, they don't have a quarterback, and they are picking just outside of the top 10.
The Chargers now that they have coach Jim Harbaugh? Please! The Chargers have $24.5 million in dead contracts on their cap, $10 million more than the next team. The Chargers are always first place in the AFC West at this point in the offseason.
Kansas City's biggest problem on offense is the continued mediocre play of its receivers combined with Travis Kelce's aging, but Rashee Rice could step into a top-tier WR1 role. On defense, it could be expensive to keep DT Chris Jones around.
No. 4 Seed: Indianapolis Colts
In his second year, Anthony Richardson, who is already 1-0 against C.J. Stroud, will outduel his fellow class of 2023 standout for a division title in his first healthy year. Richardson looked dynamic in his first four games before going down for the season. He had an underwhelming Colts roster, which was lacking Jonathan Taylor, playing hard and pushing into the fourth quarter.
Anthony Richardson SHOWING OFF HIS LEGS FOR THE TOUCHDOWN
His second rushing TD of the season!!
pic.twitter.com/32mDN8mzmJ— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) September 17, 2023
They must re-sign Michael Pittman Jr. and add another capable receiver or tight end. They are equipped to make moves, as they already dealt with JT, and they have $54.7 million in effective cap space available.
AFC Wild Cards
No. 5 Seed: Houston Texans
My pick of Indy to win the AFC South is no disrespect to C.J. Stroud and the Texans. Stroud will continue to look like a polished veteran, and he has some of the best young receivers in the AFC to throw to. If 2022 sixth-round pick Xavier Hutchinson can play better, the corps will only get better.
No. 6 Seed: Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen issued his typical refrain on Stefon Diggs: “I love him to death. I love him like a brother.”
Then Allen said: “I’m hopeful that we can figure it out and do more special things moving forward.”
Figure what out? #Bills #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/8FM49HELPh
— Henry McKenna (@henrycmckenna) February 13, 2024
There's already more drama with the long-aggrieved Stefon Diggs. It's probably all talk. His underwhelming second half of the season didn't hurt the Bills offense much nor prevent the team from making a run. The Bills will be contenders as long as Josh Allen is behind center.
No. 7 Seed: Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins will have a high-powered offense again as De'Von Achane enters his second season. Even if their production again tails off toward the end of the season, they should be strong enough early on to build a cushion to eke into the playoffs.
If it comes down to a close race, give the edge to the Fins. They are blessed with the seventh-easiest strength of schedule next season, while other Wild Card contenders have much tougher schedules. The Browns, Ravens, and Steelers must all face the Chiefs, Chargers, Cowboys, and Eagles.
NFC Division Winners
No.1 Seed: Green Bay Packers
Over the season's final eight weeks, Jordan Love completed 70.3% of his passes and threw for 18 touchdowns and one interception. He led the league with 2,150 yards (269 yards per game) during that span.
I'm sorry to say it to Lions and Vikings fans, but the Packers will be back and will be causing you disappointment for years to come. All of their receivers are 24 years old or younger, and they had the youngest roster in the league last season. That even includes deep-depth pieces, like 2023 rookies Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton, who broke out for the team's only 100-yard game of the season in Week 16.
No. 2 Seed: Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles would have won the NFC North last season if they didn't fall apart down the stretch. They still have the talent on offense with one of the best receiving duos. They just need to design a smarter offense, and new coordinator Kellen Moore is up to the challenge.
Jordan Mailata on Kellen Moore:
“I know he’s bringing in a new offense. I’m excited to be headed in a new direction.” pic.twitter.com/yFOtEftTtY
— Brenden Deeg (@BrendenDeeg_) February 9, 2024
Young defenders Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter were disappointed when they were needed in the trenches, and LB Nakobe Dean missed most of the season with injuries. If they can step up and stay healthy, the defense will be that much better.
No. 3 Seed: Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons' trio of Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts were some of the most underutilized offensive weapons anywhere. Despite their struggles, they remained in the playoff hunt until Week 18. With this lineup, a new coaching staff and a new quarterback could win them the division.
No. 4 Seed: Los Angeles Rams
The Los Angeles Rams executed a rebuild while no one was looking. They now have one of the youngest defenses in the league. DT Kobie Turner led all rookies in sacks and was a finalist for Defensive Rookie of the Year. 24-year-old Ernest Jones was graded as PFF's No. 11 linebacker, and there was only one player who was younger than him who played better than he did.
If you’re justifying Stroud over Puka for ROY because Stroud he elevated a bad team to the playoffs….don’t forget everyone and their mama were reporting the Rams being in a rebuild year….he also did it playing along side the recent Triple Crown King 🤷♂️
— nipponcracker (@nipponcracker) February 9, 2024
Matthew Stafford (and Stetson Bennett) might be getting old, but Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp can make even a backup quarterback look good.
NFC Wild Cards
No. 5 Seed: San Francisco 49ers
The core of the San Francisco 49ers offense stays together as Brock Purdy tries to bring his team back to the promised land. I'm not discounting his ability to do it even if they make the playoffs as a Wild Card team. Their offensive line leaves much to be desired, and Kyle Shanahan's game management is questionable. He could blow a decisive Week 18 divisional game.
No. 6 Seed: Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions have more talent at wide receiver and running back than the Green Bay Packers, but Jordan Love's edge over Jared Goff is enough to make the Packers the division favorites. The Lions defense leaves much to be desired before they can be considered an elite-level contender.
Lions rookie, and HBCU alum (Jackson State), James Houston IV with his second sack in his first career game!
After being elevated from the practice squad this week, Houston has had two massive third down sacks of Josh Allen. Heck of a rookie debut. pic.twitter.com/8g5VzbAqOL
— Seven Rounds in Heaven (@7RoundsInHeaven) November 24, 2022
Aidan Hutchinson is already in the top-tier of edge rushers, and if James Houston IV can come close to matching his incredible rookie season of 2022 -- before he missed most of last season -- they will be one of the most fearsome pass-rushing duos.
No. 7 Seed: Carolina Panthers
People will be shocked when Bryce Young takes great strides in his second season. Young showed a strong command in college, and he was great at anticipating and creating plays. He struggled mightily during his rookie season.
Some rookies take a long time to develop. Predicting such a turnaround is always a risky bet, but it could happen under a coach like Dave Canales who helped turn around Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield.
Meanwhile, the Saints are stuck with Derek Carr and Dennis Allen, and the Buccaneers are likely to lose Mike Evans and Mayfield.
Missing Out: Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys fans can celebrate the fact that Jerry Jones will be able to hire Bill Belichick! They will surely have fun watching Dak Prescott run the Josh McDaniels offense in 2025 and reading about the drama between Bill and Jerry.
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