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It is always fun to predict things. The 12-team CFB playoff is no different.
There are teams that everyone expects to be in for sure. But there are some others whom we just have no idea about.
That is what makes this experiment fun. And this is why we do it, so let's dive in!
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Automatic Qualifiers
Ohio State: Big Ten Champion
It is not certain whether Ohio State or Georgia is the best team in the country for the 2024 season. I am going with Ohio State for one reason, their schedule. Ohio State plays Oregon on the road. Other than this game, the Buckeyes will be at least touchdown-favorites against each opponent they face.
Penn State will be good this season, but Michigan looks to take a step back. While this will help Ohio State finally win the game, it will not be as big an accomplishment as Buckeyes fans will make it out to be. With Will Howard leading the offense, the run game will be a force to be reckoned with using TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins.
On defense, Ohio State could be the best in the nation. With safety Caleb Downs transferring in from Alabama, Ohio State will be able to slide Sonny Styles down to his more natural position of linebacker. This will make a significant difference for the Buckeyes who need to finally break through in 2024 to keep Ryan Day off the hot seat.
With Oregon being their toughest game of the season, the Buckeyes have a good chance to finish the regular season undefeated. It would not surprise me in the least if they did just that.
Georgia: SEC Champions
While Georgia may have more talent overall than the Ohio State Buckeyes, it is close. They are also going up against a much more difficult schedule. A schedule that includes three other teams in the playoff bracket and a few more who could make it if things break right.
Ohio State plays two of its toughest three games (Penn State and Michigan) at home. The Bulldogs must go on the road for their most difficult games. This includes games at Texas, Alabama, and Ole Miss. Not to mention a neutral site game against Clemson to open the season.
If Carson Beck is worth his Lamborghini, he will be forced to prove it against one of the toughest schedules in the country.
Preseason Watch List - 𝐌𝐚𝐱𝐰𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐀𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐝@carsonbeck01 @Trevor_Etienne #GoDawgs pic.twitter.com/Pi7xjN4mL0
— Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) July 29, 2024
Can Georgia go undefeated? Yes. But I am not certain they will. One loss may be in the cards. But it will not be in the SEC Championship Game. This is the victory that will allow them to hold on to the two-seed heading into the playoffs.
Clemson: ACC Champions
Starting against Georgia is tough. Fortunately for them, it is not a conference game. Also, fortunately for them, Florida State will be down a bit from last season, and Miami is, well, Miami.
Although the lack of transfers is concerning, if Dabo Swinney wants to do things this way, he has picked a good year and a good conference to do it in.
There are no true National Championship contenders in the ACC. But someone must win it, and it might as well be the team with the best head coach and slightly more talent than the other teams in the conference.
Utah Utes: Big 12 Champions
Kyle Whittingham enters the Big XII and immediately becomes the favorite to win. While this might be a bit discouraging for the rest of the league, it is exactly what Whittingham needs as he finishes off a legendary career in the next few years.
With Cam Rising returning after missing the entire 2023 season after tearing his ACL in the 2022 Rose Bowl against Penn State, the Utes have a leader who brings poise, a veteran presence, and, at this point, AARP membership.
🎯Cam Rising (Utah)
❇️If he comes back as the same QB pre injury, he could potentially be the top QB in Big 12
❇️46 passing tds to 13 ints over his 2 years starting
❇️Video shows his athletic ability & elite ball placement (from 2022) pic.twitter.com/R8cLeYCKcz
— QB Spotlight (@QBspotlight) May 9, 2024
The run game, as always, will be key to the Utes success on offense, and a physical defense is all but guaranteed.
The Big XII will have no clue what to do with the Utes and it will take time to adjust.
Boise State: Mountain West Champions
After starting the season against Oregon, Boise State will find the rest of the schedule far easier.
The Mountain West will be down a bit this season and the Broncos will take full advantage. Based on the power ratings of Bud Elliott from CBS Sports, Boise State is at least seven points better than any other team in the league. If the Broncos can avoid a letdown game, a one-loss Boise State will get the nod over an undefeated Liberty team that has not played a power conference opponent since 2022 and will not play one until at least 2026.
At-Large Qualifiers
Penn State
Yes, I am a Penn State fan. But no, this is not a homer pick. Oregon is the second-best team in the Big Ten. But with both Oregon and Penn State playing Ohio State, only one can lose and still make the Big Ten Championship Game. I think that team will be Oregon.
This means Penn State will be able to sit home on championship weekend and watch Ohio State beat the Ducks again, handing Oregon its second loss and allowing a one-loss Nittany Lions to jump Oregon in the playoff seedings. It may be unfair, but it could and will happen to teams.
Alabama
Alabama will lose to Georgia during the regular season. But it will be the only loss it takes during the season and a rematch with the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game will be its reward.
Unlike other seasons in which Kirby Smart could not get past Nick Saban, this year will be different. This will allow Georgia to get the bye. But, Alabama, with that SEC bias, will not fall too far and will get a home playoff game as a reward for losing. Not a bad consolation prize for the Tide faithful.
Oregon
In losing two games, both against Ohio State, the Ducks also get rewarded with a home playoff game in the first round. A win here, and a likely matchup with Georgia will be another reward. Sorry, Dan Lanning. But hey, at least you finally made the playoffs and won a game.
Dan Lanning speaking about QB Dillon Gabriel:
"Wearing the No. 8 and representing the number that Marcus (Mariota) wore here means a lot to him."
— Zachary Neel (@zacharycneel) July 25, 2024
Notre Dame
Notre Dame has an easy schedule. This means more than one loss and the Fighting Irish might be fighting mad and left out of the playoff entirely. It also means an undefeated season and they could finish as the five seed rather than Penn State.
I am betting on the middle. They will take one loss, either to Texas A&M or Florida State. But the committee wants a game in South Bend. So, it will get one in a matchup with the Texas Longhorns.
Texas
Texas will not find the SEC as easy as they thought the Big XII was. It is not just Oklahoma they will need to worry about. They will also have to deal with the likes of Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee and LSU. Not to mention upstart Missouri and even Florida.
Coach Sarkisian has the best QB room in the nation. But this is just one position. With teams like Georgia and Alabama having five-star athletes all over their roster, Texas is set to take some losses in the first season of the expanded SEC. Three losses are certainly possible, but I will bet on two, which also means a trip to Atlanta is not going to happen. While this is the likely spot for Texas to finish, entirely missing the playoff field is not out of the question.
Ole Miss
On the opposite end of the spectrum from Dabo Swinney is Lane Kiffin. Kiffin has never met a transfer he did not like, and his mercenary group of players has proven this yet again.
While the culture may not hold up long-term, a one-year rental can last for well, one year, and this is all Kiffin cares about. If Jaxson Dart can find his rhythm and become a Heisman finalist, the Rebels have a stellar chance to be the fourth member of the SEC to make the playoffs.
Florida State
They were 13-0 and left out of the playoffs. This is all we have heard about all off-season. It will not happen in 2024 -- for two reasons. Florida State will make the dance this season, but they will not be 13-0.
Coach Norvell has enhanced the high school recruiting of the Seminoles while also getting needed players out of the transfer portal. It is time for this to pay off as Florida State will look to be the second ACC team to make it to the playoffs this season.
Games against Miami and Clemson will be important, but even with a loss in one of them, the Seminoles can and likely will make the Championship Game. Even if they lose this game, I think they will get into the playoffs, which will make them happy. Although a trip to Alabama could be the reward.
Final Projected Seeding
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Utah
- Clemson
- Penn State
- Alabama
- Oregon
- Notre Dame
- Texas
- Ole Miss
- Florida State
- Boise State
