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Early round upsets are fun, but correctly picking the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 is the real reason you win your bracket pool. People love to be right picking a big underdog when in reality only a handful make the Sweet 16 with even fewer advancing to the Elite Eight.
As a general rule of thumb, top teams are highly rated for a reason. When filling out your bracket, you’ll generally have success picking nearly every favorite. However, Ryan and I aren’t looking for a decent bracket, but are in search of the perfect one.
Below you’ll find our favorite Elite Eight, Final Four, and Championship picks.
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Elite Eight (Nick's Picks)
East
No. 1 seed UConn (+100 to make the Final Four) over no. 10 seed Drake
The committee did the Huskies no favors placing them in easily the most talented region. However, they are matchup-proof. Guards can shoot and penetrate, wings are pure scorers and they have the size to play big or small. You have to play perfectly to beat them, which is not an easy task. Drake will have an extremely tough road to reach the Elite Eight, but it can be done. They will have the best scorer on the court in Tucker DeVries with several talented surrounding players. Iowa State is excellent defensively and I wouldn’t blame anyone who has them in this spot, but their offensive woes have shown to be problematic in March.
South
No. 1 seed Houston (+140) over no. 3 seed Kentucky
The Houston Cougars got a pretty decent draw to make a Final Four run here. Much like Iowa State, they could go cold anytime and lose starting in the second round. However, Jamal Shead has been so tough down the stretch in close games his leadership should propel them through slow stretches. They badly need J’wan Roberts to get healthy and it seems like his injuries aren’t extremely serious. Kentucky has the profile of a team you want to fade in March, but their talent is unmatched and this is also a solid draw. They’re far in away the most talented team in the lower half of this region and I have to question Kolek’s health until I see him on the court again.
West
No. 11 New Mexico (+2500) over no. 5 Saint Mary’s
My “region of chaos” looks even wonkier than I expected. The Lobos are finally healthy clicking on all cylinders. Three dynamic guards, and a veteran forward, and their best player just might be freshman forward JT Toppin. They force turnovers at a high rate, rebound on both ends, and aren’t too three-point reliant which can help them avoid terrible shooting nights. Similarly, Saint Mary’s is an excellent rebounding team with plus metrics on offense and defense. They beat New Mexico earlier in the year but the Lobos were dealing with several injuries to start the season. New Mexico +2500 to make the Final Four is one of my first-round bets. Find the rest here.
Midwest
No. 2 Tennessee (+350) over No. 1 Purdue
Arguably the two most fraudulent coaches meeting in the Elite Eight would be an interesting sight. Like the West region, these two teams matched up in the non-conference with Purdue ending victorious. Zakai Zeigler’s ball pressure can give Purdue’s guards issues and Dalton Knecht can light up the room. The real battle will be between Jonas Aidoo and National Player of the Year Zach Edey. If they can single-cover Edey, the Vols will be able to cling to shooters making their offense one-dimensional. The rosters of both teams can win a title, but can their coaches?
Final Four
No. 1 seed UConn over no. 11 seed New Mexico
Yeah, it would be an amazing run for New Mexico to make the Final Four but the Huskies are a freight train. I want nothing to do with stepping in front of them as they’ll be able to negate what New Mexico does best: force turnovers and rebound. UConn is the best rebounding team in the country and has talented yet experienced guards.
No. 2 Tennessee over no. 1 Houston
This game would be much more of a toss-up. Houston is flat-out excellent on defense, entering the tournament 2nd in efficiency metrics. Again, however, the Volunteers should be able to negate some of the Cougars’ strengths. They don’t turn the ball over a ton and can hold their own on the glass. Conversely, Houston is prone to low-scoring games due to a slow tempo and shooting woes which could be the difference.
Championship
No. 1 seed UConn (+400 to win Championship) over no. 2 Tennessee
They are a wagon. Freight train, immortal, and whatever other adjectives you want to use to describe the best team in college hoops. They have three losses on the season, so they do bleed. I just don’t see how anyone can top the most talented team with an excellent profile and proven championship coach. Dalton Knecht trying to navigate the wave of Husky defenders would be incredibly fun to watch. At the end of the day, Connecticut’s ability to score from every position at every spot on the floor is difficult for most, if not all teams to match. Pair that with rebounding excellence and a positive turnover rate and you get a +400 favorite to cut down the nets.
Fair odds are around 20% for them to win the National Championship, so there is no value in their current odds. If you want to be different, find a way to get the Huskies out of your bracket. But that’s not my business.
Elite Eight (Ryan's Picks)
East
No. 1 seed UConn (+100 to make the Final Four) over No. 3 seed Illinois
Who is going to slow down this UConn team? They have looked immortal for the majority of the year, which is astounding when you consider they lost 3 NBA players from a team that went 6-0 ATS en route to a national championship last season. While Auburn is the type of team that can give them some trouble with their depth and physicality, and Illinois has the firepower to keep up, UConn is just too balanced. The Huskies march on back to the final four.
South
No. 3 seed Kentucky (+600) over No. 1 Houston
This Kentucky team gives me 2014 vibes. Uber-talented and deceptively balanced with guys that come through in the clutch. Freshman phenom Reed Shepherd outplays Big 12 Player of the Year Jamal Shead and propels UK to their first final four in almost ten years.
West
No. 2 seed Arizona (+260) over No. 8 seed Mississippi State
The top half of the West region is by far the hardest one to pick in my eyes. It seems like UNC should run through it, and as much as I want a Caleb Love - UNC showdown in the Elite Eight, I do like Mississippi State with a potential upset there. I also want to believe in fully buying into New Mexico but I don’t see them getting past AZ. Tommy Lloyd sheds his “can’t win in March” coat that is getting heavier by the year.
Midwest
No. 1 seed Purdue (+175) over No. 3 seed Creighton
I am aware that this is the third region that I have a 1 vs. 3 matchup but that’s because I like most of the three seeds more than the twos. This will be the first stiff test for Edey, as he takes on the three-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year winner Ryan Kalkbrenner. Purdue avenges their historic loss to a 16 seed last year and finally gets Matt Painter his first final four.
Final Four
No.1 UConn (+400 to win Championship) over No. 2 Arizona
Aesthetic-wise, this final four would be incredible. The best overall team on a quest for a repeat championship, Caleb Love is back in the final four with a storied program, Purdue attempting the Virginia all-time turnaround revenge title, and Kentucky has maybe the most fun team in the Big Dance. Optics, storylines, narratives, etc. would be off the charts.
A lot of great players on display in this one, but the advantage goes to UConn with their depth and ability to control the pace of the game. Zona loves to run, and that’s something UConn can do if they want to, but this team is so adept at forcing teams to play within their environment. I could see the Wildcats going up double digits early in the first half but their lead quickly evaporated once the Huskies settled in.
No. 1 Purdue (+700) over No. 3 KentuckyAny of these four teams matching up in the championship game would be intriguing, especially a repeat title game from 2014 if UConn and Kentucky were to both win, but I see the magic wearing off for Coach Cal here. Kentucky’s 108th-ranked defense finally catches up to them and Purdue lights it up from behind the arc in a convincing 12+ point win.
Championship
No. 1 UConn over No. 1 Purdue
Tristen Newton vs. Braden Smith. Cam Spencer vs. Fletcher Loyer. Lance Jones vs. Stephon Castle. Zach Edey vs. another Big East monster defensive big man in Donovan Clingan. The matchups in this game have me borderline foaming at the mouth. That might be a little extreme, but this is the game the biggest college basketball fans have wanted to see all year.
When you actually go through those matchups, the Huskies have a clear advantage at every position other than the five. That is why I am picking them to cut down the nets for a second consecutive year. UConn is the only team in the field that virtually has no weakness. They run the most intricate and efficient offense in the country. Bully their opponents on the glass. Shoot the three ball well, make their free throws, and still somehow play with an edge. That’s the Dan Hurley spirit. The Huskies win again and tie UNC on the all-time list with six.
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