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Not all number-one picks turn out to have great careers, but most of them at least have some success in the NFL. That said, the franchise with the top pick in each year's draft is usually an organization that has lacked stability and historic success, so many of the top picks struggled to elevate their teams to Super Bowl contention. Never the less, the top overall pick in the NFL draft represents the chance for an organization to change the entire trajectory of their franchise.
There are plenty of "all-time draft busts" articles and rankings, but this piece will focus on the positives. It's time to power rank the top 10 first-overall picks since 2000. A quarterback will obviously have more of an impact on changing a franchise than an edge rusher or offensive tackle, but for the purpose of this list, positional value won't be weighted as drastically as it is in the real NFL.
Since first-overall picks are largely either horrific busts or elite players throughout their careers, the top of the list is easy to configure. However, there's plenty of room for debate near the bottom of the top 10 in the pecking order. Without further ado, let's get into it!
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10.) Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams (2016)
Accolades: 1x NFC Champion, 3x Pro Bowl
Goff has had plenty of ups and downs as a starter in the NFL, but the Los Angeles Rams went from a middling franchise to a bonafide contender with him under center. After going 0-7 as a rookie, the Cal product won 42 of his next 62 games and brought the Rams to the Super Bowl. He wasn't simply a game manager either, throwing for at least 3,900 yards on three occasions and at least 28 touchdowns twice.
I can’t think of the Vikings without remembering this EPIC game from 2018.
Jared Goff put together the greatest QB performance that I personally have ever witnessed.
26/33 for 465 yards and 5 TDs, perfect QB rating. The Rams loaded offense all had great performances pic.twitter.com/xKsRR5PYGq
— RAMS ON FILM (@RamsOnFilm) December 24, 2021
Los Angeles ultimately traded him to Detroit for Matthew Stafford and won a Super Bowl, which tarnished his reputation a little bit more, but Goff improved the Lions' win total by six games from his first year to his second. He draws plenty of critics, but he's been a winner for two organizations and looks like he can take Detroit to the next level.
9.) Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (2012)
Accolades: 4x Pro Bowl, 1x Touchdown Passes Leader
If Luck had stayed healthy and not retired at age 29, he'd likely be among the top three players on this list. However, his impact on the Colts' organization was unique and immediate. The Colts posted a 2-14 record while Peyton Manning sat out the entire season, and Luck was tasked with replacing the greatest player in franchise history. He lived up to the hype right away – winning 11 of his 16 starts as a rookie. It was a huge turnaround for a "rebuilding".
Never forget when Andrew Luck led the #Colts on a 28-point comeback vs. the #Chiefs in the playoffs. pic.twitter.com/kap27nMszm
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) August 25, 2019
Luck posted 11-5 records the next two years, reaching the AFC Divisional Round then AFC Championship in 2013 and 2014 (defeated Peyton Manning's Broncos in 2014.) Ultimately, Luck looked to be on the fast track to the Hall-of-Fame while keeping the Colts a legitimate contender for two decades, but since he ultimately retired early, he can't check in any higher on this list.
8.) Michael Vick, Atlanta Falcons (2001)
Accolades: 4x Pro Bowl, 1st All-Time In QB Rush Yards
Vick struggled as a passer during his Atlanta Falcons career, but his rushing acumen changed everything for mobile quarterbacks to come in the future. He led the struggling Falcons' organization to an NFC Championship game appearance in 2004 and became arguably the most popular player in the NFL. Obviously, his off-the-field conduct prematurely ended his career with the Falcons and will tarnish his legacy forever, but he was still a worthwhile number-one overall pick and brought tremendous energy to the city.
Never forget when Andrew Luck led the #Colts on a 28-point comeback vs. the #Chiefs in the playoffs. pic.twitter.com/kap27nMszm
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) August 25, 2019
After a two-year absence from the league, Vick shined once again with Andy Reid and the Philadelphia Eagles. He remained a top-flight rushing QB, but improved his passing skill set and made the improbable comeback to stardom. Vick is the all-time leader in quarterback rushing yards with 6,109.
7.) Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals (2003)
Accolades: 1x All Pro, 3x Pro Bowl, 1x Touchdown Passes Leader
Palmer's career is viewed by many as mediocre, but he was a fairly prolific passer and a steady presence for the Bengals organization. The USC product passed for at least 26 touchdowns in six of his NFL seasons and even led the league with 32 touchdown tosses in his second year as a starter.
Carson Palmer's career resume:
- 3x Pro Bowl
- 2015 All-Pro 2nd Team
- 2005 NFL PASS TD (32) leader
- 2005 NFL CMP% (67.8) leader
- 2015 NFL QBR (76.4) leaderpic.twitter.com/kKNrDg9rs4— Pro Sports Outlook (@PSO_Sports) October 17, 2022
Ultimately, his greatest playoff success came with the Arizona Cardinals in 2015, leading them to an NFC Championship Game. Palmer may not have been as spectacular in a single season as Vick or Luck, but his longevity and final career resume make him worth a top-seven spot.
6.) Mario Williams, Houston Texans (2006)
Accolades: 3x All Pro, 4x Pro Bowl
Before J.J. Watt took over the Texans' franchise, Williams was the biggest star in Houston. The N.C. State product totaled 53 sacks and 11 forced fumbles in his six-year career with Houston, then went on to have a productive career for the Buffalo Bills. He racked up 38 sacks in his first three seasons with his new team and cemented himself as one of the league's most dominant pass-rushers.
Mario Williams' career resume:
- 4x Pro Bowl
- 2014 All-Pro 1st Team, 2x 2nd Team
- Most SK (4.5) in 1 #Bills GP
- 1st #Texans player with 50 career SK
- 1st #Texans player with 10 career FFpic.twitter.com/65lkgA1Gg2— Pro Sports Outlook (@PSO_Sports) October 23, 2022
Of course, an edge rusher can only impact wins and losses so much, but Williams mostly lived up to his first-pick status. His 97.5 total sacks place him top 50 all-time.
5.) Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns (2017)
Accolades: 4x All-Pro, 4x Pro Bowl
Garrett has been one of the league's most dominant edge rushers from the moment he stepped on the field in 2017. The athletic freak of nature tallied seven sacks in just 11 games as a rookie and has hit double-digit sacks in the following five seasons. Since entering the NFL, he trials only T.J. Watt and Aaron Donald with 74.5 sacks.
With this sack, Myles Garrett breaks the Browns' franchise season record with 15 sacks this season.
Cleveland still has 4 games left to play 🤯
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/45mQM59ger— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 12, 2021
He's likely to be a fixture on the All-Pro Team for at least the next half-decade and could be carving out a Hall-of-Fame career. If Cleveland ever becomes an offensive juggernaut that forces opposing teams to ramp up the passing attempts, his sack total ceiling is sky-high.
4.) Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (2009)
Accolades: 1x Super Bowl Champion, 1x Pro Bowl
Stafford's Lions never got over the hump and became real Super Bowl contenders, but his impact on the franchise shouldn't be questioned. If nothing else, he brought stability to the struggling organization and was one of the most prolific passers in the league during his 12-year career in the Motor City. His Super Bowl victory with the Los Angeles Rams skyrocketed his legacy, so he's now viewed as one of the best QBs of his era.
Is #Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford a Hall of Famer already? He is criminally underrated…
-Super Bowl Champion
-Pro Bowler
-2011 Comeback Player of The Year
-52,082 passing yards (11th All-time)
-333 touchdown passes (12 All-time)
-191 games played, all as a starter… pic.twitter.com/Nm9zMK5K0m— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) June 13, 2023
Stafford is seventh all-time with nine seasons of at least 4,000 passing yards and is close to the top-1o in all-time passing yards. Surprisingly, he hasn't been selected to more Pro Bowls, but he's been almost everything you can hope for when picking a QB at the top spot in a draft.
3.) Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (2020)
Accolades: 1x AFC Champion, 1x Pro Bowl
Burrow's presence in the top three might seem like a hot take given his youth, but his ability to elevate a historically mediocre franchise earns him a spot here. The 2019 Heisman winner and National Champion suffered a torn ACL in his rookie campaign but came back on fire and led the Bengals all the way to a Super Bowl with wins over the Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans, and Kansas City Chiefs in the 2021 NFL Playoffs. Before Cincinnati's win in 2021, its last playoff victory was in 1990. Burrow already has four postseason wins. Needless to say, he's been franchise-altering.
Joe Burrow has 525 passing yards 😳
📺: #BALvsCIN on CBS
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/CPqtRWUrTr— NFL (@NFL) December 26, 2021
Burrow currently holds the NFL record for completion percentage (68.2%) and has thrown 82 touchdowns to 31 interceptions. An MVP award in his future seems inevitable and he might be the player to challenge Patrick Mahomes in the AFC for years to come.
2.) Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (2011)
Accolades: 1x NFC Champion, 1x MVP, 1x Offensive Player of the Year, 1x All-Pro, 3x Pro Bowl
Newton took the league by storm as a rookie in 2011 after leading Auburn to a National Championship. The 6'5" tank threw for 4,051 yards and 21 touchdowns, adding 706 yards and 14 touchdowns (NFL record) on the ground. He was every bit of the dynamic player he was in college and was the next big dual-threat rusher in the NFL.
2015 Cam Newton was UNSTOPPABLE
via @nflthrowback pic.twitter.com/wsSOkDUsxd
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) March 23, 2022
He's the only player on the list to win an MVP Award (2015) and he led the Carolina Panthers to a Super Bowl appearance in 2015. Unfortunately, injuries seemingly derailed his otherwise spectacular career, but he was a mega-superstar and holds the career record for rushing touchdowns at the QB spot (75).
1.) Eli Manning, New York Giants (2004)
Accolades: 2x Super Bowl Champion, 2x Super Bowl MVP, 4x Pro-Bowl
Although the San Diego Chargers didn't benefit from Manning's excellent career after selecting him with the top pick, the Ole Miss alum is the easy choice for the top spot on the list. Manning finished his career with a .500 regular season record and was largely average for stretches of his time with the Giants, but his postseason runs elevate his career resume dramatically. He is the only player on the list with multiple Super Bowls and the only guy with a Super Bowl MVP (he has two).
The greatest season ever played by an NFL QB was Eli Manning in 2011.
-Super Bowl MVP
-6,152 yards passing (NFL record)
-38 TD passes (9 TDs and 1 INT in playoffs)
-Most 4th Quarter TDs in a season: 15
-8 game winning drives
-32nd ranked run game/27th ranked defense… pic.twitter.com/dQEEdf4hYR
— David Solow (@Giants_Alliance) May 27, 2023
Manning defeated the 18-0 New England Patriots in 2007 with late-game heroics, then took down Tom Brady again in the big game in 2011. It's not as if he was simply a game manager who rode the coattails of his defense or running game either, as he holds the record for the most passing yards in a single postseason (1,219 in 2011). During New York's two Super Bowl runs, he totaled 15 touchdowns and threw just two interceptions. Sure, the regular season matters, but players are remembered for how they performed in the playoffs, so Manning likely will get a Hall-of-Fame nod.
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