X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Power Hitting Risers & Fallers for Week 11 - Buy or Sell?

Home run risers and fallers for Week 11 of fantasy baseball. Nate Green evaluates power increases or decreases, and players who could be buy or sell candidates.

Welcome to this week's Power Hitting Risers & Fallers. All stats are full season through Monday, June 10 (unless otherwise noted). Your weekly reminders: EVAB (pronounced ee-vab or ev-ab) is simply exit velocity on "air balls" - meaning fly balls and line drives, as shown on Statcast. Isolated power -- ISO -- is slugging percentage minus batting average, and so xISO is xSLG minus xBA. And lastly, the Statcast Search feature is used to obtain partial season Statcast numbers.

It's time to make home runs per barrel, which has been touched on for several weeks, a statistic of note in this column. We don't need an exact conclusion here, just a ballpark of how many home runs a player might be expected to have on a certain number of barrels. Last year, there were 8,451 barrels and 5,585 home runs. This year, there have been 3,944 barrels and 2,646 home runs. Going back to 2017 we get 7,913 barrels producing 6,105 home runs; 2016 gave us 7,954 and 5,610. And we might as well complete the set with 2015, which saw 6,943 barrels and 4,909 home runs. That's a 71% ratio in 2015, 70% in 2016, 77% in 2017, 66% in 2018, and 67% so far this season. 2017 appears to be somewhat of an outlier.

Roughly speaking, then, significantly less than a two-thirds to 70% ratio of homers to barrels will be used to indicate poor luck, and a significantly higher ratio good luck. This framing implies a couple of questionable ideas -- one, that non-homer barrels and non-barreled home runs cancel out in the long run, and two, that all barrels are created equal -- but it should be a good rough estimate of that nebulous concept, luck. At least for a week.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Power Risers

Matt Olson (1B, OAK)

Olson broke his hamate early in the year, which is always a scary injury for a power hitter. Since returning from the injury on May 7, however, Olson has nine home runs in 32 games. And with 17 barrels on the season, Olson could have even more home runs.

Olson's exit velocity has tanked this year, from 93.1 mph last season to 89.8 this year. However, ignore his grounders, and his EVAB is down just a tick from 97.4 to 96.3 mph. An average launch angle of 20 degrees, up from 17.8 last season, seems to have helped up the barrel rate from 12.2% of batted balls to 21% now.

Olson's 24 home runs in 59 games in 2017 represented no one's true talent level, but as the weather heats up this season, if Olson keeps hitting the ball as he has, he could reach 30 bombs for the first time. It's unfortunate he missed a month or he might challenge 40.

Edwin Encarnacion (DH, SEA)

Most of the Mariners stopped hitting at some point this season, but not Encarnacion, who is tied for third in MLB with 20 home runs. He's hit seven of them in the last 14 days. With 25 barrels on the season and only six during that 14-day stretch, there's been a bit of Statcast luck here.

However, Encarnacion has made some improvements. There's the 21.8 degrees of launch angle after a previous career high of 18.1 last season. Hard to argue he's hitting it too high given the results, and that includes barrels -- 25 in 278 PA is good, just not enough to sustain 20 homers. More importantly, however, after uncharacteristic 10.9 walk and 22.8 strikeout percentages last year, Encarnacion has regained his plate discipline footing with 13.7% and 19.1% this season.

Encarnacion has done a lot to fight off the effects of age. At 36, he's all set for an eighth straight year of 32 or more home runs. He may slow down a little bit as the year progresses, but he's still an eminent source of power.

Colin Moran (3B, PIT)

Moran hit 11 home runs in 144 games last season and is already up to nine this year in just 62 games. Five of them have come since May 29. He has five barrels since that cutoff and 12 overall. That's a little bit of luck but not a lot, and his pace this season is still just 23-24 homers per 162 games. The mini-hot streak has seen a little more luck, but that's how hot streaks happen.

Moran has made some improvements, on the whole, this year, including upping his launch angle to 12.1 degrees, as well as seeing 6.2% of his plate appearances turn into barrels. Those figures were 10.5 degrees and 3.9% last season.

However, he is also striking out a lot more often, 24.9% of the time this season after 17.6% last year. One suspects the possibility that he is selling out for power. Of course, he's striking out 20.4% of the time since May 29, so maybe there's some real improvement here. Leave him as an NL-only type asset for now but check back later.

Scott Kingery (3B, PHI)

Kingery was terrible last year with a 62 wRC+. He hit eight home runs in 147 games. This year, after two more on Monday, he has six through 34 games. With seven barrels, he's not this good -- only one of his Monday homers was barreled up, for instance -- but he's so much better than in 2018.

Everything Statcast is better: exit velocity from 85.5 to 89.7 mph, EVAB from 90.3 to 94.1 mph, 3.5% barrels/PA to 6.3%, xSLG from .364 to .493. That last figure nonetheless suggests that Kingery's .610 SLG this year is a bit of a fluke, but it would still make him a perfectly productive hitter. Kingery is also hitting the ball lower, 14.0 degrees after 16.8 last season, but it's hard to argue with his results given last year's disaster.

It's not all roses, as Kingery's surface plate discipline numbers are no better (a 26.0-5.0 K-BB% last year is now 25.2-3.6). But the quality of contact is undoubtedly up, which is undoubtedly helpful. Kingery may or may not get to 20 home runs this season, but he's now on the map once again as a potential future star.

Christian Yelich (OF, MIL)

Oh yeah, him. He hasn't gotten much air time around here (pun not intended). Even now, he is not leading off this week's risers section, despite leading the Majors in home runs by three.

Even this fairly lucky version of Yelich -- his 24 home runs are supported by 27 barrels -- is arguably the best hitter in the game with 99th percentile exit velocity, 98th percentile xSLG, and 98th percentile xwOBA. He responded to the launch angle criticism by hitting 12.6 degrees so far this season, which has raised what was a .572 xSLG last season.

Sure, the Bondsian .745 SLG isn't supported by that .639 xSLG, but there isn't much useful analysis to be said about Yelich. Whoever has him is thrilled by him with no questions asked, and that will be the case even if he slugs "only" .639 the rest of the season.

 

Power Fallers

Rougned Odor (2B, TEX)

Odor had some pop from April 27 to May 20, hitting seven homers. He has none before or since. Even during that one stretch, he was hitting just .182/.241/.481; on the season, he's at an atrocious .175/.246/.328.

Odor had seven barrels in that time and has 12 overall. A bit of good luck during the run and a bit of bad luck overall. Not nearly enough bad luck to justify a 45 wRC+ or .328 slugging rate given the .286 xwOBA and .379 xSLG.

Odor this year is basically a worse version of the 30-homer, 58 wRC+ hitter we saw in 2017, even though he's kept the walk rate up at 8% instead of 4%. He might end up at 20 homers if he continues to play, but who would really care? Far more likely the Rangers just tire of it eventually and he loses playing time.

Michael Brantley (OF, HOU)

Since Brantley was identified as a power riser in Week 7, he has hit zero additional home runs. Because he's Michael Brantley, he's remained an above average hitter in that time with a 108 wRC+. But what happened to the homers? Well, he only has two barrels in the last 28 days; one was a double and the other caught.

As we discussed in Week 7, however, Brantley's 10 early homers weren't sustainable. He now has 12 barrels on the season and a .512 SLG that continues to exceed his xSLG, which is currently .453. So further decline is possible.

Brantley's ability to succeed without bombs, which is thanks in part to his always unreal strikeout rates, protects his productivity floor and keeps him in a strong Astros lineup, even when the club is at full strength. Brantley continues to just be himself, and the distribution variance is just what happens in a long season. There's a lot of time for him to continue to challenge his previous career high of 20 homers.

Nick Senzel (OF, CIN)

In the first four games of his Major League career, Nick Senzel hit three home runs. The second and third came on May 6. But his fourth came on May 29 and he has none since. That's one home run in five weeks. In some ways, the overall result has been fairly just, given his .460 SLG compared to a .445 xSLG. On the other hand, he has 12 barrels, so the home run total seems a bit low.

During the falling stretch, Senzel has barreled up eight baseballs with just the one home run to show for it. You have to figure there's more power in the bat than what he's gotten in that month-plus. Obviously not three-in-four-games the way his career started, but more than one per month.

What that means for Senzel's overall production given, that he's fully deserved his slugging and isolated slugging rates per Statcast, is not clear. But keep running Senzel out there and see how this goes. That applies both to the Reds and fantasy owners.

Yadier Molina (C, STL)

Molina was on the injured list with a thumb injury, but he returned Tuesday. A lingering thumb issue plus a layoff could combine to continue Molina's power struggles, as he had four home runs in 50 games before the injury. That came just a year after he hit 20 home runs, the second highest total of his career, in 123 games.

There was some bad luck behind Molina's power decline. His xSLG is in fact identical to last year's at .440. And with eight barrels, he could have had an extra homer or two. Molina also made it his business to put the ball in play this season, with a 3.5 BB% and 8.5 K%. That didn't translate into extra barrels, given the 4.4% per-PA rate set last year has fallen to 4.0%, but it's still extra chances in the future.

Overall, Molina was better before the injury than his .265/.294/.397 showed, but a recently-injured catcher isn't the best kind of player to bank on recovering. Catcher is thin enough that patience is warranted, but temper expectations.

Lorenzo Cain (OF, MIL)

Lorenzo Cain has never crushed the baseball, with 71 career home runs in 959 games. He had 10 in 141 games last season. He had four by May 3 of this season, but none since. Like Brantley, Cain has two barrels during the no-homer run, also a double and an out. The pre-May 3 Cain ended seven PA with a barrel, so he wasn't getting absurdly fortunate.

Nonetheless, the overall results for Cain have been discouraging. His .254/.314/.371 line is one of those unlucky-but-not-by-enough lines given a .275 xBA and .387 xSLG. He's going on a second straight year with a single-digit launch angle; after 9.5, 9.3, and 10.1 degrees from 2015-17, he's hit it just 4.7 and 5.5 degrees in 2018 and '19. Hence the sub-.400 xSLG's each year after exceeding that mark the three years previous.

Overall, Cain seems like he might hit 10 home runs again, but after working his walk rate to a career-high 11.5% last season, he's fallen to 7.4% this year, and the overall productivity has taken a hit. A Cain who steals 30 bases is worth it with 10 homers, but much lower on the steals and the value starts to become questionable. There's still a track record here, but it's not in the power department.

 

Last Week's Risers

Player Last Week Update
Derek Dietrich 1-for-15, 0 HR; have pitchers adjusted or for how long?
Renato Nunez 3-for-18, 1 HR; same question as for Dietrich
Mike Moustakas Four homers in a week as he continues to crush it, now tied for 3rd with 20 total
Bryan Reynolds 8-for-26 but no additional homers is somewhat more in line with expectations
Robinson Chirinos Wacky .182/.438/.545 line with homer #10, no significant regression yet

 

Last Week's Fallers

Player Last Week Update
Jose Ramirez 4-for-18 and still waiting on HR #5...can't say much more
Aaron Hicks .235/.316/.647 with homers 3 and 4; here he comes
Trea Turner Even hotter than Hicks at .346/.370/.923 with homers 3, 4, and 5
Manny Machado .176/.176/.235 has him stuck on 10 HR and down to .242/.327/.403
Ozzie Albies Two homers on Monday after five walks in previous five games for .368/.520/.789 seven-day stretch and some optimism

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Connor McDavid

Totals Three Points In Game 3 Win
Johnathan Kovacevic

Exits Early Friday
Seth Lugo

Tosses Eight Shutout Innings In Friday's Win Over Houston
Sam Montembeault

Suffers Lower-Body Injury Friday
Logan Thompson

Exits Loss With Injury
Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sanchez Will Throw A Bullpen On Sunday
Brandon Hagel

Suspended For Game 3
Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF