X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Potential Pitcher ADP Busts for 2017

With REAL BASEBALL set to start on Sunday (with three games no less!), most fantasy drafts have either occurred or are set to happen very soon. With that in mind, we’re set to put a wrap on our positional avoid series with the final chapter: pitchers.

Pitchers are as volatile as they come in fantasy baseball, as no pick truly feels safe. Sure, Clayton Kershaw will dominate on the mound, but will he make 30 starts? As such, many fantasy players wait on pitchers looking to draft aces well after they have taken a couple bats. This only makes their aces all the more risky and the whole cycle continues. Considering pitching makes up half up most league's categories, though, pitchers are of the utmost importance.

With that said, we’ll take a look at three pitchers (two starters and a reliever) who you would be best served to avoid when it comes to drafting in 2017. There is a world in which these three end up outperforming their current draft position, but it’s not as likely as some of the safer picks out there. Let’s meet these three.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Pitchers Who May Bust in 2017

Jake Arrieta (ninth in RotoBaller SP rankings; ADP of 32 in NFBC)

Two years ago Arrieta won many a fantasy player his/her league thanks to a season in which he won 22 games and posted an ERA of 1.77. There were some signs that he wouldn’t repeat in 2016, and those signs bore out in reality, as Arrieta slipped to 18 wins and a 3.10 ERA. Still very respectable numbers, but not dominant as he was in 2015.

This year, Arrieta is being drafted right around where you’d expect if he were to put up a carbon copy of 2016 - not among the truly top tier of pitchers but right behind them. If we simply take the “he’ll be somewhere between 2015 and 2016” tack, this would make Arrieta a strong pick. It is much more likely that 2016 was a step in a downward direction rather than a tough-luck season, though.

Arrieta has now seen his K/9 drop in each of the last three seasons, despite a league-wide trend in the opposite direction. Arrieta finished 2016 with a K/9 of 8.67, only a touch above league average (8.10 K/9). Now because of the high inning total he was able to reach once again, he tallied more total strikeouts (190) than all but 14 other pitchers in baseball, but if this trend continues in 2017, Arrieta could see that figure drop into the 175 range - not spectacular from someone being drafted so early.

There’s reason to believe his K/9 may continue to slip as well. His velocity dropped either 1.84 or 0.9 mph based on whether you go by Brooks Baseball or FanGraphs. Either way, his swinging strike rate dropped 0.6 percent in 2016 and that trend could well continue as Arrieta is now 31 years old.

Finally, there’s the issue of his spotty command, which was one of his biggest issues back in his Orioles days, when he couldn’t break into the league successfully. Arrieta nearly doubled his walk rate in 2016 (3.47 BB/9 up from 1.89), a sign that is as troubling as any. Top all that off with a second half (4.19 FIP) that was worse than his first half (3.03 FIP) and you have a pitcher I’ll be avoiding in 2017.

 

Drew Pomeranz (53rd in RotoBaller SP rankings; APD of 240 in NFBC)

Pomeranz is coming off his best year as a fantasy pitcher, which, as has been noted time and time again, is never a good time to draft a player. With Pomeranz, a good chunk of that expanded value came thanks to finally staying healthy enough to top 100 innings. That and escaping Coors Field helps too. After five seasons in the majors in which he never threw more than 96.2 innings at the major league level, Pomeranz tossed 170.2 innings in 2016 - a significant jump. Maybe it is not surprising then to hear that Pomeranz has already landed himself on the DL to start the 2017 season. He had been struggling all spring and was officially added to the DL with a forearm flexor strain, according to the Boston Globe.

It’s not just the injuries that scare me with Pomeranz. He is one of the most infuriating pitchers to own in fantasy. Here’s an abbreviated look at his 2016 game logs after he moved to Boston last season:

Road vs. LAA (decent matchup): 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K

Home vs. NYY (tough matchup): 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K

Road vs. CLE (tough matchup): 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K

Home vs. NYY (oh he did well last time in this situation): 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K

What the heck man? With Pomeranz being one of those play-him-based-on-the-matchup type pitchers in a ten-team mixed leagues, he makes it exceptionally difficult to do so with crazy all over the map results start after start. Add in his 4.59 ERA last year after being traded to Boston, and I’m staying away even at his relatively cheap price.

 

Craig Kimbrel (fourth in RotoBaller RP rankings; ADP of 88 in NFBC)

Of the three pitchers listed here, Kimbrel is my biggest avoid. That may seem like heresy to fantasy players who have been around for years, as Kimbrel has been a go-to name in the closer's business since 2010. That’s part of the reason, though. Kimbrel is “only” 28, but he’ll be 29 soon and he is showing signs of losing his elite skills.

The most straight-forward way of showing that: his ERA has climbed each of the past five years. Now that ERA started at a miniscule level, but here are his last five ERAs: 1.01, 1.21, 1.61, 2.58, 3.40. There are plenty more signs, though, many of them 2016 specific. In 2016, Kimbrel saw his ground ball rate plummet to 29.4 percent after five seasons over 40 percent. In turn, his fly ball rate jumped 48.0 percent, more than 11 percent higher than his career rate. As such, Kimbrel was a bit lucky not to see his home run rate jump through the roof. Partially tied to the change in batted balls allowed, Kimbrel allowed a career-high 33.0% hard hit ball rate - again a bad sign for allowing extra base hits. Kimbrel’s velocity was measured at mostly the same pace in 2016, but hitters were pulling him more often than ever, which suggests his perceived velocity may have slipped as he has aged.

It wasn’t just the contact that Kimbrel allowed in 2016, he also saw his already high walk rate jump into a scary realm. With a walk rate of 5.09 BB/9, Kimbrel finished behind only seven other pitchers with as many innings in 2016, in terms of walk rate. When you add in the fact that Kimbrel is also currently the most expensive pitcher in his tier (as a Tier 2 closer), he becomes one of the biggest avoids in the entire fantasy world for me. Instead, target Tyler Thornburg, who should be returning from a DL stint right around the time Kimbrel implodes and forces a change at the closer position.

 

More Potential Overvalued Draft Picks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nolan Schanuel

Makes Early Exit On Saturday
Cam Smith

Heading To The Bench
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 4
Logan Evans

To Make MLB Debut On Sunday
Jarred Kelenic

Takes A Seat On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Won't Play On Sunday

Dolphins Select Quinn Ewers In Seventh Round
Logan Gilbert

Heading To 15-Day Injured List
Emmanuel Clase

Available As Closer For Game 2
Brenden Dillon

Out On Sunday
Mitchell Robinson

Questionable For Game 4 Versus Detroit
Luke Hughes

To Remain Out On Sunday
Michael Porter Jr.

Available On Saturday Night
Aliaksei Protas

Practices Fully On Saturday
Russell Westbrook

Won't Suit Up For Game 4
Gabriel Vilardi

A Game-Time Decision For Sunday
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back A Game-Time Call On Saturday
Ross Colton

Unavailable Saturday
Miro Heiskanen

Remains Out Saturday
Riley Leonard

Drafted By Colts Saturday

Steelers Select Will Howard In Sixth Round Of NFL Draft

Eagles Add Kyle McCord To Quarterback Room

Miami Adds Ollie Gordon II To Backfield

Chargers Add KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Oronde Gadsden II To Offense

Colts Add DJ Giddens To Backfield
Michael Busch

Sitting On Saturday Versus Southpaw
Brandon Woodruff

"Really Tired" After Latest Rehab Start
Tyler Fitzgerald

Scratched On Saturday
Lawrence Butler

Absent From Lineup On Saturday
Ezequiel Tovar

Still A Week Or So Away From Return From IL

Dallas Cowboys Draft Jaydon Blue In Fifth Round

49ers Add Jordan Watkins To Offense
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Catches Bullpen Session On Saturday

Browns Trade Up To Select Shedeur Sanders In The Fifth Round
Dylan Carlson

Recalled By Baltimore
Sam Howell

Seahawks Trade Sam Howell To Vikings

Titans Continue To Address Offense, Select Elic Ayomanor
Jalen Beeks

Avoids Serious Injury

Chiefs Bolster Receiver Room With Jalen Royals
Lucas Giolito

Starting On Wednesday Vs. Toronto

Commanders Add Jaylin Lane To Wide Receiver Room

Browns Select Dylan Sampson With 126th Pick
Tyler O'Neill

Heading To The IL

Titans Use Fourth-Round Pick On Gunnar Helm
Jarquez Hunter

Rams Select Jarquez Hunter In Fourth Round
Mike Trout

Blasts His Ninth Home Run Of The Season

Texans Trade Up For Woody Marks

Jets Select Arian Smith In Fourth Round
Ryan Mountcastle

Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle Not In Game 1 Lineup

Panthers Select Trevor Etienne 114th Overall
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Wasn't Available Friday Due To Recent Usage

Giants Take CFP Darling Cam Skattebo
Darius Garland

Won't Suit Up For Game 3
Ha-Seong Kim

Targeting June/July Return
Darius Garland

Unavailable For Pregame Warmup
MLB

Yankees and Blue Jays Postponed On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Classified As "Day-To-Day"
Jacob Markstrom

Ends Losing Spell Friday
Cole Caufield

Collects Two Points In Friday's Win
Connor McDavid

Totals Three Points In Game 3 Win
Johnathan Kovacevic

Exits Early Friday
Sam Montembeault

Suffers Lower-Body Injury Friday
Logan Thompson

Exits Loss With Injury
Brandon Hagel

Suspended For Game 3
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF