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Hello RotoBallers, welcome to our new article about three potential post-hype hitters about to break out later than their prime. A player enters their "prime" around age 28, so we will only look at players aged 31 or older.
All hitters discussed have high ADPs and are overlooked in drafts. This can be for various reasons, but these players all have the makings to be valuable fantasy assets, and this year could be the start for some.
Now, for our three breakout, post-hype, after their prime hitters.
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Introduction
There are a couple of pointers we must discuss to understand further how we will be picking our breakouts:
- Again, players must be the age of 31 or older.
- Showing excellent plate discipline and/or plate vision. Players who walk at a great rate and/or don't strike out often hold more value, especially in points or OBP Roto leagues. Not every hitter needs these skills to break out, but it's a great way to tell.
- Must have a path to consistent playing time. We will not look at players stuck in platoons or on the bench.
- Hitters must have one great skill already. This could be plate discipline, plate vision, power, contact, or speed.
Hunter Renfroe, Kansas City Royals
2023 Stats: .233/.297/.416, 20 HR, 60 RBI
Hunter Renfroe’s 2023 season was a rollercoaster, but for circumstances that he could not control. Renfroe was a part of the disastrous moves made after the trade deadline by the Angels during the 2023 season, as Renfroe and a majority of players acquired at the deadline to be released to waivers so the Angels could be under the luxury tax.
Renfroe was traded from the Brewers to the Angels before the 2023 began and got picked up by the Reds in mid-August. Renfroe slashed a mediocre .233/.297/.416 for a .713 OPS, with 20 home runs in 140 total games between the Angels and Reds. Renfroe was playing better in the first half, as he struggled in the second half of the season. In September/October, Renfroe slashed a putrid .128/.227/.205 line, and he hit only one home run in 14 games played as a Red in those two months.
Renfroe’s decline in production stemmed from his decline in quality contact, supported by his batted ball data on Baseball Savant. Renfroe had a career-worst barrel rate, with the lowest average exit velocity and hard-hit rate since his rookie season in the 2017 season as a member of the Padres.
For fantasy purposes, the case for drafting Renfroe is due to his exceedingly high average ADP, which stands at pick 374. Renfroe will be in a new environment in the heart of the Royals batting order. The outfielder position might not have a better value for cheap powers and RBIs. Fantasy owners should take a chance on Renfroe as at his ADP. At most, he fills in one of your bench spots. Why not draft him and see what happens?
Mitch Garver, Seattle Mariners
2023 Stats: .270/.370/.500 19 HR in 87 Games
In 2023, Mitch Garver showed off the power for a stacked Texas Rangers lineup, hitting 19 home runs in 87 games while splitting time between catcher/DH and batting foot and knee injuries. Garver has been in a platoon role for quite some time now, but now he has the path to everyday playing time, as he inked a two-year deal with the Seattle Mariners in the offseason to be their everyday DH.
This move is more significant to Garver’s fantasy value because he will be the DH instead of the primary catcher. This means that Garver will accumulate more at-bats than the typical catcher, as catchers have more days off to rest than the other positions on the diamond. If Garver can capitalize on his World Series-winning momentum, he will be the easiest and cheapest source of power at the catcher position.
My Top 10 DH for 2024:
1. Shohei Ohtani
2. Yordan Alvarez
3. Eloy Jiménez
4. Jorge Soler
5. Eloy Jiménez
6. Mitch Garver
7. J.D. Martinez
8. Giancarlo Stanton
9. Brent Rooker
10. Justin Turner
pic.twitter.com/CRLUYNAdMx— DataBase Hit (@DatabaseHit) March 26, 2024
ATC projects him to hit .232 with 21 homers, but I bet Garver, playing DH full time, will hit around 30 homers, 80 RBIs, and around a .250 batting average. However, his ATC projection is the floor I would give for Garver as well. The everyday at-bats at the catcher position are too valuable to pass up, and at his average consensus ADP of 203, he will easily be one of, if not the last starting catcher off the board in most leagues.
Eugenio Suarez, Arizona Diamondbacks
2023 Stats: .232/.323/.391, 162 GP, 22 HR 96 RBI
Eugenio Suarez, the American League strikeout king for the past two seasons, has a case to make to breakout, and it's relatively simple: he plays in Arizona. Within that stacked lineup containing Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, and Christian Walker, there will be plenty of RBI opportunities for Suarez in 2023.
The main concern with Suarez is his strikeouts, as he has led the American League in strikeouts for the past two seasons. His whiffs will tank his batting average if they don't improve, but there may not be a better source of power from 3B late in the draft.
Playing in Arizona is the ballpark, as Statcast ranked the ballpark as the 6th worst ballpark for right-handed home runs (Brenton Kemp, RotoBaller). As long as Suarez continues to lift the ball, this is not necessarily an issue, as in the summer, with the roof open, the ball will fly no matter where he hits it in Chase Field.
Eugenio Suárez earns The Trident with a go-ahead homer in the 10th! pic.twitter.com/7HVvIfWYZO
— MLB (@MLB) May 4, 2023
Overall, Suarez's average consensus ADP on is 257, and ATC projects him to hit .232 with 23 homers. Still, I believe more power will come from Suarez's hitting in Arizona and a weakened NL West (besides the Giants).
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