Points League Hitters: Waiver Wire Pickups for Fantasy Baseball - Week 5

We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax.

Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform, so we'll make sure to highlight where players are the best and worst fits. We know points league players get neglected and we're here to help.

These fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups are for the week of May 9th - May 15th, looking at players below 50% rostered for ESPN, Yahoo!, or Fantrax. Position eligibility is taken from Fantrax and players are grouped by their most valuable fantasy position, using a hierarchy of: C > 2B > OF > 3B > 1B > SS. Stats and rankings are calculated using games through Friday, May 6.

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Know Your Scoring System

You know what I'm going to say, right?  You must account for, as precisely as possible, how a player performs under your particular scoring system. Don't be fooled into believing you can just make rough adjustments in your head, bumping up guys with high on-base percentages and low strikeout rates. Every point, in every category, counts.

For example, ESPN and Fantrax are virtually identical in their scoring for hitters and roster size. The only difference is that stolen bases are worth one more point on Fantrax and ESPN subtracts one point per strikeout. That's the difference between Trea Turner being a top-five hitter versus a top-25 hitter.

If your league uses standard settings, then great! Turn to page 94 and you can skip ahead to the leaderboards. If you play with custom settings, it'll still be fine. Go back to page 43 and look below at the scoring systems of the four major platforms. I bet there's a chance that you'll find that your league's scoring is very similar to one of the four (well, not Yahoo!'s), even if it's not the platform you actually play on.

If you look above, you'll likely find a suitable mirror to your own system. While every point counts, as long as they aren't seismic changes you can get away with some "close enough" calls. IE. If everything is the same except for HBP (or something similar), you're probably fine.

Week 5: Waiver Wire Leaderboards

All charts are updated prior to Saturday's games, on stats and ownerships, and clicking on a chart will open a new page with a magnified version. Players on overall leaderboards are ordered according to their current Roster% on Yahoo.

*APR = Average Platform Ranking - the average platform ranking between ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, and Fantrax (standard point settings)

The 14-Day Leaderboard, Presented by Hansel

These players are so hot right now. Here are the players running inside the top-100 of APR over the past two weeks, ordered by APR.

Overall Leaderboards

Before we crack on to the positions, a quick word on xwOBA and expected stats, in general. We're still including xwOBA (and xwOBA - wOBA) but do be aware of their currently severe limitations in this new dead-ball world. Remember that expected stats use launch angle and exit velocities to approximate what the typical result has been for balls hit with similar metrics. But right now, the offensive environment is so drastically different that it's hard to make those comparisons by using data from recent seasons, thus rendering the expected stats far too high until Savant has enough data to update their equations, they're hard to rely on.

IE. Until they're updated, x-stats are going to be much higher than they probably should be. That's not to say they're worthless but be aware that a 100-pt gap between wOBA and xwOBA ain't what it used to be. This might lead me to start using percentile ranks in the future but stay tuned.

On to the positions!

First Base Waiver Wire Pickups

Must Adds

• Rowdy Tellez, MIL - If Rowdy is still on your wire, it's time to end the charade. Tellez has been positively nuclear, posting a .456 wOBA over the past two weeks, hitting four home runs, with eight runs and a whopping 16 RBI (including eight in one game!). But more importantly (for fantasy purposes) is that it looks like the platoon days are finally behind him, with Keston Hiura (and his 48% K%) mercifully being optioned back to Triple-A. For more Rowdy hype, check out the latest "Catcher's Corner" on the RotoBaller radio network, hosted by @SaminskiNYC and @Believe_Sami, and featuring a very special guest...Me!
• Jesus Aguilar, MIA - Rowdy might be getting all the love at first base but don't pass up how much Aguilar has finally started heating up. In 53 PA over the past two weeks, he's posted a very Rowdy-esque line of a .453 wOBA in 53 PA, with three home runs, and 11 RBI.
• Alex Kirilloff, MIN - He just returned from the IL and should be added just on the potential. And if the wrist still seems balky, send him back from whence he came.

Can Adds

• Juan Yepez, STL - After hitting nine home runs in just 93 PA at Triple-A, Yepez got called up and has started all three of his games (2 at DH, 1 in RF). The power is legit (he hit 27 HR in 434 PA at two levels in 2021) but the biggest question is how big his role will continue to be. The bat is good enough that he'll likely be a must-add if the Cardinals seem committed to giving him everyday at-bats...Nicklaus said hopefully, thinking about all the times he drafted Yepez in the deep draft-and-hold formats on NFBC.
• Christian Walker, ARI - Walker is someone else we covered on "Catcher's Corner" and who has shown significant bumps in his top-end exit velocities. Don't expect some transcendent season but Walker has a points-friendly profile that will be good enough for a CI spot if the bigger EVs translates to more power.
• Dan Vogelbach, PIT - His APR has dropped over the past two weeks but Vogelbach is still far exceeding his expectations, while still batting leadoff against RHP.

Desperate Adds

• Miguel Cabrera, DET

Notable IL

• Luke Voit, SD (bicep)
• Carlos Santana, KC (ankle)

Second Base Waiver Wire Pickups

Must Adds

• Andrés Giménez, CLE - Giménez has really heated up, collecting multiple hits in six of his last 10 games while slashing .359/.359/.564 with a .403 wOBA and 172 wRC+. He's still batting in the lower third of Cleveland's order but starting the last two games vs LHP might portend him leaving the platoon-iverse.
• César Hernández, WSH - Hernández's biggest value-add remains his super-compiler PA-power but a top-50 APR over the last two weeks (70 APR for the year) is what happens when a compiler gets hot. He leads all of baseball with 126 PA, has posted a .380 wOBA over the past two weeks, and has just a 17.5% K% for the year. That'll play in most point formats.

Can Adds

• Wilmer Flores, SF - Wilmer's profile is still points gold (69 APR for the season, 51 APR over the last two weeks) but San Francisco is going to be flooded with players returning from the IL. The platoon cometh.
• Ha-Seong Kim, SD - He's hitting and walking enough to stay useful and got moved up to the two-hole in his last start after languishing most of the season in the lower third of the lineup.
• Santiago Espinal, TOR - No power but he's playing every day. And while hitting 9th isn't ideal for collecting plate appearances, having the lineup turn over to George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. shouldn't be a bad thing for scoring runs.

Desperate Adds

• Jon Berti, MIA - Berti's 68 APR over the last two weeks is buoyed by one of the more inexplicable 2-HR games we'll probably see this season. He's now the proud owner of 14 HR in 772 PA for his career but, more interestingly, three of his past four starts have come against RHP. Slashing .300/.440/.550 in 50 PA, with an 18% BB%, his playing time going forward is worth keeping an eye on.
• Jorge Mateo, BAL - Mateo is playing every day (and hit his first home run last Thursday) but is still batting ninth and still running a 30% K% and 5.6% BB% that will hold down his scoring under most formats.

Notable IL

• Cavan Biggio, TOR (CV-19)
• Luis Arraez, MIN (CV-19)
• Nick Senzel, CIN (CV-19)

Third Base Waiver Wire Pickups

Must Adds

• Yandy Diaz, TB - The man with the groundball swing continues being up to his old tricks (0.4 degrees LA average, 58% GB%) but he's slashing .308/.438/.423 over 96 PA (multiple hits in five of his last eight games), with a 16.7% BB% and just a 7.3% K%. With that kind of BB/K ratio, Diaz will already find himself startable in many point formats but there's also the added bonus of his move up Tampa Bay's lineup, as he's now led off in his past five games.

Can Adds

• Jeimer Candelario, DET - My guy Candy has finally started to wake up, hitting two home runs in his past five games, collecting multiple hits in his past six, and posting a 33 APR over the last two weeks.
• Mike Moustakas, CIN - The 147 APR over the last two weeks is nothing special but keep in mind that is over only 26 PA, as Moustakas has only been off of the IL for seven games. Since returning, Moustakas is slashing .391/.462/.609, with a .469 wOBA and 203 wRC+. And while three of those games were in Colorado, he was actually cold there, going just 2-for-9 with one walk and zero counting stats.

Desperate Adds

• Gio Urshela, MIN - Urshela has had a disappointing start to his Minnesota tenure but playing every day with an excellent K/BB might be enough of a measure for your desperate times.

Notable IL

• Brian Anderson, MIA (CV-19)
• Miguel Sano (knee surgery)

Shortstop Waiver Wire Pickups

Must Adds

• Umm...No. We can just run back the same disclaimer from last week: Part of the dearth at shortstop is mechanical, as many SS-eligible players are grouped at second base. Unfortunately, Ha-Seong Kim is (still) probably the best of that bunch.

Can Adds

• Isiah Kiner-Falefa, NYY - Kiner-Falefa has a middling APR and a middling points profile but his everyday role might be enough to make him a usable band-aid.
• Taylor Walls, TB - Tampa has actually committed to playing him every day but that (and a 14.5% BB%) probably won't be enough to be worth anything but a fill-in.

Desperate Adds

• Nick Ahmed, ARI - Since returning from the shoulder injury that started his season on the IL, Ahmed has been on a bit of a heater but be aware that those elevated per-PA scoring rates are driven largely by a four-game stretch where he hit three home runs. In his three games since hitting the last one, he's o-for-11.

Notable IL

• None

Outfielder Waiver Wire Pickups

Must Adds

We're still packed on the grass with plenty of options that are good enough to be starters under most scoring formats. Let this be a reminder that it's usually worth it to wait on drafting OF in point leagues because there tends to be an abundance of friendly (but unsexy on roto terms) scoring profiles available on the wire.

• Robbie Grossman, DET - Speaking of points-friendly, Grossman's profile is probably too good to be sitting on your wire. He only has a 108 APR over the last two weeks but keep in mind that a lot of his value is being held down by an unseemly 31% K% that is helping negate his 13.3% BB%. But don't expect that to continue - Grossman has a 21.6% K% for his career and has just a 9.2% SwStr% in 2022.
• Tommy Pham, CIN - Pham now has a nice 69 APR for the season and a 33 APR over the last two weeks, slashing .326/.420/.558 over those 50 PA. The Cincinnati offense remains bad but Pham is batting every day in the middle of it and is currently crushing. Time to buy back in.
• Yadiel Hernandez, WSH - Hernandez has quietly been excellent and has hit himself into an everyday role. He has a 39 APR over the past two weeks and for the season is slashing .373/.394/.522, with a .401 wOBA in 71 PA. Of the 17 games he's started, he's failed to get a hit just twice and is currently on a five-game, muli-hit streak. A .453 BABIP speaks to some regression coming but Hernandez needs to be added until it does.
• Anthony Santander, BAL - Santander has an 18.7% K% and 16.8% BB% over his first 107 PA of 2022 but more importantly, hasn't yet been tackled by his glass oblique. As long as he stays on the field, Santander is starter-level for most formats.
• Manuel Margot, TB - Tampa has been playing him every day and Margot has rewarded them handsomely, now slashing .312/.369/.416 for the season. He's currently riding a six-game hitting streak, including a pinch-hit, three-run home run in the last one.

Can Adds

• Andrew McCutchen, MIL - McCutchen only has a .287 wOBa for the season (and a .281 wOBA over the past two weeks) but is racking up a ton of PAs on a good Milwaukee offense and in an excellent hitting park.
• Harrison Bader, STL - Bader has also been compiling a mess of PAs and has two home runs and five stolen bases over the past two weeks.
• Odubel Herrera, PHI - I don't know how long it will last but Herrera has absolutely been crushing since returning to the Phillies. In 11 games and 30 PA, he's slashing .321/.333/.714, with two home runs but a 30.3% K% and 3.3% BB% doesn't exactly scream points-friendly.
• Edward Olivares, KC
• Pavin Smith, ARI

Desperate Adds

• Akil Baddoo, DET - Don't be fooled by the name value; Baddoo is only slashing .149/.231/.234, with a 28.8% K% over 52 PA and has yet to record a multi-hit game.
• Brandon Marsh, LAA - Marsh has just two hits in his past six games and is rocking a 35.8% K%. Not great.
• Garrett Cooper, MIA
• David Peralta, ARI

Notable IL

• Eddie Rosario, ATL (laser eye surgery)
• Wil Myers, SD (thumb contusion)
• Clint Frazier, CHC (appendectomy)
• Jake Fraley, CIN (knee inflammation)

Catcher Waiver Wire Pickups

Must Add

• Ryan Jeffers, MIN - Good god! Is that the Must-Add music at catcher??? Well, kind of. Jeffers has a 59 APR over the last two weeks after hitting three home runs and posting a .483 wOBA over 30 PA. He also has a 31.3% K% for the season, limiting his value in leagues with a strikeout penalty. For leagues without one, he's worth an add if you're struggling behind the plate.

Can Add

• MJ Melendez, KC - Recently called up, Melendez might be worth a stash at least until we see how often Kansas City deploys him. But while he's proven he can rake in the past, he hasn't exactly lit up the minors so far in 2022. Over 91 PA, he's slashed just .167/.267/.295, with two home runs and a .275 wOBA.
• Mike Zunino, TB - The power is waking up (3 HR in his past 29 PA) but a 35% K% makes him a liability in many leagues.
• Alejandro Kirk, TOR - Kirk is still playing a fair amount (33 PA over the last two weeks), has a double-digit walk rate, and just a 10.7% K%. Unfortunately, all other production has been near nil.
• Elias Diaz, COL
• Austin Nola, SD

Desperate Add

• All catcher adds are desperate adds. Now and forever.

Notable IL

• Danny Jansen, TOR (oblique)

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