RADIO
Happy baseball season to all our diamond-dwelling RotoBallers! For the past five months, we’ve settled for pass interferences, technical fouls and busted brackets but now it’s time to pull up our stirrups for summer’s pastime.
One week into the season, the clouds of Opening Day fireworks are starting to subside, and it’s time to begin scrutinizing our teams and their preliminary weaknesses. While patience is an underrated virtue in fantasy, it’s reasonable to consider turning over the bottom of a scuffling roster.
Our points league waiver wire column will default to standard scoring and try to unearth three players under 50% ownership and three players under 25% ownership. For each group, we’ll identify an infielder, outfielder and pitcher. Let’s get hunting!
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Points League Pickups to Consider
Ketel Marte (2B/SS/OF, ARI) – 41% Owned
Arizona’s offense is off to a blistering start, averaging almost six runs per game. One person of interest is Ketel Marte, whose .290 average and 11 R+RBI have earned him a jump from sixth to second in the batting order. He is a well-rounded player with positional versatility, highly regarded in points league circles.
Marte’s BB/K rate for the past two seasons has been north of 0.65, well above the league average of 0.45. Along with his ability to register double-digit pop with 14 homers in 2018, Marte contributed 26 doubles and 12 triples. The marginal points contribution from his gap ability makes him a much more relevant points league player than in standard formats. Marte’s never profiled as a speedster, but already has two stolen bags and is rarely caught. Without playing time restrictions, Marte is worth broad fantasy consideration while the D-Back bats remain hot.
Dansby Swanson (SS, ATL) – 14% Owned
After struggling through his first two full seasons in the bigs, Dansby Swanson is on a mission to silence critics, slashing .353/.478.765 through 23 plate appearances. He’s launched two home runs and posted a phenomenal .496 wOBA over that span. Is this for real?
For us fantasy critics with chronic short-term memory deficiency, Swanson was the first-overall pick in 2015 and still just 25 years old. He plays excellent defense so while there are some lineup risks as the Braves juggle their starters, he’s likely in the pilot seat for starts. Swanson struggled last year with strikeouts (23% K%) and has yet to develop a consistent approach against breaking balls, but he smacked 14 homers and registered 43 extra-base hits despite hitting just .238. Early signs are encouraging, with Swanson talking a walk per strikeout. A post-hype breakout is certainly possible.
Randal Grichuk (OF, TOR) – 45% Owned
Randal Grichuk was featured in our offseason column on barrel data as a player who consistently hits the ball hard. With 20-plus homers in three straight seasons, the bugaboo on Grichuk has been his inability to make contact and receive regular starts.
The latter issue is now resolved. Grichuk received a five-year, $52 million contract on April 2 while the Blue Jays shipped long-time center fielder Kevin Pillar to San Francisco. Grichuk is now the man in the North. For his part, Grichuk has shown his gratitude by smashing three homers in the early going. He’s hitting a paltry .200, but the .143 BABIP is sure to rise closer to the .303 career rate. Importantly, Grichuk’s walks have increased from 6% to 10%, which is material if sustained. As previously discussed, Grichuk has the batted-ball metrics to be a bonafide slugger. With regular playing time, a run at a career year is highly probable.
Alex Gordon (OF, KC) – 5% Owned
Alex Gordon? No, we promise our readers it’s not 2013. But yes, Alex Gordon has forced himself back in the fantasy discussion with a 1.129 OPS and 16 R+RBI through 27 plate appearances. At 35 years old, Gordon is trying to prove baseball can still be an old man’s game.
Firmly established at third in the order, Gordon and the Royals are currently the AL Central’s most high-powered offense at five runs a game. While his playing time has declined over the past few seasons, we’ll recall Gordon remains a doubles machine, lacing 24 two-baggers in 2018 and averaging 39 in his heyday between 2011-2014. It’s unreasonable to conceive Gordon maintaining his .353 ISO and 5.0 BB/K, but a .188 BABIP will support his current average even as the homers revert to singles and doubles. Yet to steal a base, Gordon is also dependable to challenge double-digit steals each season. Let’s give it up for the old guy!
Matt Shoemaker (SP, TOR) – 42% Owned
Another surprising start in Toronto belongs to Matt Shoemaker. Like Grichuk, Shoemaker had become an afterthought after making only 21 appearances over the past two seasons. He’s started the 2019 campaign hot, firing 14 innings of shutout ball with a 0.50 WHIP. Apparently healthy, Shoemaker is back on the fantasy map.
Prior to arm injuries derailing his promising career, Shoemaker made 71 starts between 2014-2016, recording a 3.80 ERA and 8.0 K/9. In his first two turns, Shoemaker is inducing a tremendous 18% SwStr% by relying on a splitter with a brilliant standardized pitch value of 6.41 (above zero is considered good). While it’s debatable if his endurance can last a full season, Shoemaker is worth riding until he starts fading. Shoemaker’s mettle will be tested with upcoming challenges against Boston and Minnesota. His fantasy ownership will likely skyrocket if he emerges triumphant.
Spencer Turnbull (SP, DET) – 1% Owned
After a mediocre first start on March 30 (five innings pitched, three earned runs), Spencer Turnbull turned it up on April 4, tallying 10 strikeouts and allowing two earned runs in six frames. Owned in just 1% of fantasy leagues, Turnbull’s recent quality start and unintimidating schedule give him deep-league appeal.
At 26 years old, Turnbull enjoyed a brief cup of coffee last season with four appearances. In 2018, he ascended from High-A ball to Triple-A, spending most of his time at Double-A. Through 98 2/3 innings with the Erie SeaWolves, Turnbull fanned minor leagues at 9.6 strikeouts per nine. While the 4.47 ERA wasn’t impressive, a 3.16 FIP gives reassurance that his stuff was effective. He hovers in the mid-90s with his fastball and has generated a 13% whiff rate this season. With matchups upcoming against the Indians and Pirates, Turnbull has an opportunity to make noise within the fantasy community.
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