Points League Busts: Third Basemen Set to Fall Short of ADP in 2022

This article will examine a few eligible third basemen for the 2022 MLB season that are being selected earlier than their Steamer projections suggest they should in points leagues and H2H points formats. RotoBaller's fantasy baseball points analyst Antonio Losada will be offering a few picks for both potential overperformers (sleepers) and shortcomers (busts) when it comes to the following baseball season at each of the six (C/1B/2B/3B/SS/OF) rosterable positions through the remainder of the offseason gearing up to training camps and the preseason. ADP figures come from point-format contests over NFBC.

In general, points leagues and H2H points formats are extremely underserved by the fantasy baseball community and fantasy baseball outlets. But in case you weren't aware, here at RotoBaller we really take pride in and specialize in points leagues. All through the preseason and MLB season, we'll be publishing rankings, tools, and analysis articles all geared for fantasy baseball points and H2H points leagues.

Before we get to the players themselves, let's quickly review points leagues and how they are different than other formats. Typically, points leagues have different league settings and scoring formats than other fantasy baseball leagues. Different MLB stats and categories are assigned different point values, and those can vary by individual league settings. Those different point buckets are then added up over the course of a scoring period or season. In many cases, hitters who walk more and strike out less are preferred for points leagues. Also, many league formats tend to give more weight to pitchers than normal as they can easily accrue points through categories like Innings Pitched. Without further ado, let's get it popping!

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Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves

ADP: 38.0 - OVR Rk: 48 - POS Rk: 6

If you have been following this series, or if you are a veteran of the points format, you know what this is about: playing time, availability, trips to the plate. Riley is the man at that, to say the least, and he's just entering his age-25 season. That's fantastic! Riley is coming off a 662 PA season last year, and he even logged 200+ in the Pandemic 2020 (just 51 games played). Steamer has him projected to a massive 647 PA next year, which is awesome, only... it might not be that great? Let's check this young man.

Tons of PA doesn't mean tons of production. Riley posted an average of 2.47 FPPG last season (ESPN scoring system) and finished the year as a top-five 3B to go with a top-35 finish among non-pitchers in points leagues. What I'm saying is that Riley wasn't bad at all, but he needed tons of trips to the plate to make things work. Oh, and just in case, he posted a preposterous .368 BABIP, which was a ridiculous .075 points above his prior highest in the MLB. Of course, the AVG went past the .300 mark, he logged a staggering .531 SLG, and the OPS finished at .898 over the full season. Nah, I'm sorry but I'm not buying.

That's because the BB% sat at 7.9% and it's been back-to-back seasons right at that figure. The K% has also closed the last couple of years at 23.8% and 25.4% of late. That's meant 0.33 and 0.31 BB/K ratios for Riley, which is a putrid average for points purposes. We need walks (nope). We need not strikeouts (welp). We need sustainable OBP figures (this man's jumped from .279 to .301 to .367...), and we need XBH (only positive on Riley's resume and projection). Not the worst of picks, but not at his current ADP at least for me.

Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics

ADP: 140.5 - OVR Rk: 155 - POS Rk: 15

Is it safe to assume Chapman is past his highest peak? Most probably, it is. I know, Chapman is just about to play at age-29 this season. That's good because he's not old, but he's getting there quickly and worryingly so. To wit: he went from 2.48 FPPG in 2018 to an even better 2.66 in 2019, then fell off a cliff to 2.08 in Pandemic 2020 and cratered to a ridiculous 1.60 last season. Not liking that at all, folks. The wRC+ has been on a steady decline for the past four years and running, and it hit league average (101) last season, which is nothing to call home about.

Truth be told, most projections are seeing 2021 as a fluke and expecting a rebound from Chapman. Should we? Chapman's BABIP is always so, so it is what it is. Now, last season saw Chappy walk at a blistering rate of 12.9% compared to his prior-best 10.9% and his 2020 mark of 5.3% (!). Hmmm... striking out he didn't forget how to, though putting a 32%+ figure for the second year straight (35.5% in 2020, 32.5% last year) means he is now boasting a high 28.4% mark over his full career. The BB/K ratio isn't putrid at 0.36 career-wise, but that mark would pretty much get into the 20th percentile any season. Sucky.

Is Chapman going to stay in Oakland for long? We'll see, as he's still "young" and movable, and the A's... well. Even while being positive, the projections aren't great at all. The AVG is expected to fall below .220. The OBP isn't reaching .320 as I'm looking at my fancy Steamer sheet. And the .743 OPS ranks fifth-worst among 3B projected to 500+ PA next season. Patrick Wisdom is the only player at the position projected to more strikeouts than Chapman's 189 figure, by the way.

Adalberto Mondesi, Kansas City Royals

ADP: 80.3 - OVR Rk: 157 - POS Rk: 16

Saved the best for last. Yes, right behind the name of this man, it says "ADP: 80.3". Yes, this man is projected to finish the season not even into the top-15 3B of 2022. Yes, Mondesi is expected to not crack the top-150 leaguewide. And of course, that image above this paragraph is as real as it gets and the one you can find at this very moment in his Statcast profile--nope, don't expect to find anything that doesn't have to do with speed and forget about hitting metrics because this fool just doesn't have any other tool than some wheels. Jeez.

Drafting Mondesi in points leagues is the most idiotic thing one can do. As simple as that, let's not sugarcoat it because it makes no sense doing so. Mondesi is projected by Steamer to steal 42 bases through the 2022 campaign. Incredible! He's also expected to walk a few times, namely 29. Not bad! Mondesi is also expected to strike out 155 times, which I'm sorry to inform that makes for a very simple equation of 42+29-155 = minus-84. Oh, what a surprise!

See, Mondesi can run, and that's all he does, and that's just not going to cut it in points formats. An ADP of 80!? Give me a break. We're talking about a sunk cost here and one that could easily cost you the league, no joke. Mondesi's slash line projects to .248/.291/.424 and I think that's even optimistic. If you're lucky, Mondesi might give you a top-200 finish, or a top-25 3B from another angle. If you're not, welcome to a world in which he finishes outside of the top-300 and of course, doesn't even crack the top-40 among his position fellowmen.

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