Points League Values: First Basemen Set to Outperform ADP in 2022

This article will examine a few eligible first basemen for the 2022 MLB season that are being selected later than their Steamer projections suggest they should in points leagues and H2H points formats. RotoBaller's fantasy baseball points analyst Antonio Losada will be offering a few picks for both potential overperformers (sleepers) and shortcomers (busts) when it comes to the following baseball season at each of the six (C/1B/2B/3B/SS/OF) rosterable positions through the remainder of the offseason gearing up to training camps and the preseason. ADP figures come from point-format contests over NFBC.

In general, points leagues and H2H points formats are extremely underserved by the fantasy baseball community and fantasy baseball outlets. But in case you weren't aware, here at RotoBaller we really take pride in and specialize in points leagues. All through the preseason and MLB season, we'll be publishing rankings, tools, and analysis articles all geared for fantasy baseball points and H2H points leagues.

Before we get to the players themselves, let's quickly review points leagues and how they are different than other formats. Typically, points leagues have different league settings and scoring formats than other fantasy baseball leagues. Different MLB stats and categories are assigned different point values, and those can vary by individual league settings. Those different point buckets are then added up over the course of a scoring period or season. In many cases, hitters who walk more and strike out less are preferred for points leagues. Also, many league formats tend to give more weight to pitchers than normal as they can easily accrue points through categories like Innings Pitched. Without further ado, let's get it popping!

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Pete Alonso, New York Mets

ADP: 35.1 - OVR Rk: 16 - POS Rk: 4

Of course, an ADP of 35 is sky-high and it's going to take a Herculean effort from the Polar Bear to outperform that high price until you peep at his projected overall rank for next season (Steamer on ESPN scoring system) and realize he's expected to double on that ADP-based production. That's half a lie, though, because Alonso's ADP marks the average position in which he's getting drafted while he's actually being the 26th player off draft boards... but even then!

The first base is so loaded that Alonso is only projected to finish as the fourth-best 1B behind the trio of Vladito, Freddie Freeman, and Matt Olson. No way that's the case, if you ask me. Pencil in a top-three at the position and thank me later. Alonso comes with a 95/42/112/2/.258. That is 42 homers, yes, you're not looking at it in any sort of wrong way. Now, remember, those are classic 5x5 cats and it's good and all, but we're here for the counting points, folks.

What I'm saying is Alonso has leveled up through the past few months and posted a career-high BB/K at 0.47. Is that stunning? Far from it. But not counting the forgettable (for everybody, that is) 2020 season, Pete has counting tallies of 155 and 147 hits, 53 and 37 homers, and went from 183 SO as a rook to 127 last season. Alonso was the fifth-best 1B in those two seasons, sandwiching the Pandemic Year and just the slightest of improvements will have him reaching top-three status. I'm buying 100% of the projections even knowing they are always on the low.

Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals

ADP: 38.8 - OVR Rk: 28 - POS Rk: 5

Another high ADP guy before we move on to deeper places. What about Pauly-G, he of the 11 years as a pro and rock-solid availability/production? In his 10 seasons with more than 50 games played (didn't reach that mark as a rookie in 2011), Goldschmidt has averaged 612 PA, 153 hits, 27 home runs, and 181 R+RBI. Tastiest of it all? The man is aging and the numbers are dropping by the year, but it's been 10 seasons in a row inside the top-11 for PG and eight straight inside the top-nine at first base.

Now, hear me out. I'm the first one not believing whatever aberration of the 2020 season was. I mean, Goldschmidt found the Fountain of Youth back then, hitting 30%, slugging 46%, and putting up an 88.3% OPS that had not been as high since his last season as a D-Back. Of course, regression was coming and the walk and strikeout rates went down and up, respectively, from 2020... though they were still kinda good at 9.9 BB% and a career-low (since 2017) 20 K%.

The .49 BB/K is, like that of Pete (read above), not overwhelming. But the .331 BABIP was high-yet-below-average career-wise for Goldschmidt and Steamer has a bonkers .358 OBP going Goldschmidt's way next season. Yes, all three of Vlad/Freddie/Matt are projected to a hair higher OBP, yes, but they also project to pretty much the same no-homer extra-base hits as the Golden Veteran. Can cope with that.

Josh Bell, Washington Nationals

ADP: 107.1 - OVR Rk: 30 - POS Rk: 6

Yoshi was never a very important character in the Super Mario saga, but he was very useful for all purposes. Talk about Joshi Bell. As many as 31 players are projected by Steamer to reach more HRs than Bell next year (32+). I said players, not first basemen. First basemen: six of them, all with ridiculous strikeout projections that come out at an average of 151+ per man, a measly counting walk average of 67... irrisory, that is. For Bell, at least. Josh Bell comes with a projection of 75 BB to go with a paltry 125 K.

Yessir, that tasty 0.6 BB/K rate has me drooling because 1) Vlad won't get to his stupid 0.75 projection and Matt Olson is the only other guy above Bell... just +0.01 in the projections. I mean... Brother Bell was too good to be true from Game 1 to Game 144, suppressing Ks and welcoming BBs on a daily basis while keeping up a solid 20 LD% that bested his prior best (not counting 2016 due to the hyper-small sample).

Add more highs in HR/FB (25.5%), monster pull-rates ending at 39% on the year, and a fantastically low 5.7% pop-up rate and Joshie Bell is a dream come true and a top-five 1B-explosion waiting to happen. Steamer is not even getting close to Bell's career-K average of 110 a year, pegging him for 125 next season, which I'm sorry, but nope. And you're also telling me Joshi can DH and has no competition for first-bag reps in the Capital D.C.!? Nothing else to say.

Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

ADP: 138.9 - OVR Rk: 43 - POS Rk: 7

Do you remember when Votto was gracing Sports Illustrated covers? Ah, the good, old, patient Votto days. Not so much now, am I right? Whatever substance Votto added to his breakfast chocolate milk, it surely had some exciting components. It had been more than a decade--a decade as in like 10+ years!--since Votto lastly put up a Swing% above 43% (43.9 percent last year) as that had not been witnessed by any pair of eyes since the year 2010 when he went for a brutal 47.3% of the looks he got back then.

Haters will say that hurt Votto's overall hitting game because his Contact% cratered to a career-low 73.5%, which is okay. Captain Obvious stating facts. Votto, just in case, had his forever-season-a-row posting a .350+ OBP and, in fact, his best mark (.375) since 2018. Just saying. Oh, and Votto is entering his age-38 campaign. Are we past peak Votto? Probably. But he is so viscerally savvy that it's not that we should care that much about non-wine aging coming his way.

To wit: 0.61 BB/K (again, trying to hit all pitches and then those pitches' sons and then some more) that ranked tied for the 24th-best mark among hitters with 530+ PA last season. Obviously, because Votto, he was one of just five mates among those 24 guys to finish the year with a 70/90 R/RBI baseline and 35+ home runs. Sure thing, he has the highest K% among them (23.8%), but do you know what he did to make up for that? Post the highest BB% of the Fantastic Five at a solid 14.4% and the second-best OPS at .938. God bless!

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