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Poetry In Motion: The Strikeout Prowess of Aaron Nola

Nola? More like Nolan! While Aaron Nola may not be as physically imposing as the Ryan Express, his strikeout rate is in elite territory this season. Nolan Ryan's career 9.5 K/9 doesn't reflect the dominance of his era, as he led the league in strikeouts 11 times. These days, hitters are more aggressive and pitchers throw harder, leading to higher K totals all around. While Nola has an impressive 9.8 K/9 that trumps the greatest strikeout pitcher of the past generation, at the time of this writing he is twelfth in the majors with 58 K. Still, Nola is higher than reigning NL Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta and current AL favorite, Chris Sale. To mention Nola in the same breath as baseball's elite pitchers may seem premature, but if you look closely at his performance, Nola may be even better than you think.

Fantasy owners love (and need) a good strikeout pitcher. It isn't all about strikeouts with Nola, however, as his 0.88 WHIP is fourth and .188 AVG is seventh in MLB. If you want to discuss pitcher values, Nola is third in WAR as well. Certainly the strikeouts help, but Nola isn't getting hit hard even when batters do make contact. His 2.38 xFIP also places him third in the majors at this time. So how does he fool hitters so frequently without over-powering them?

Nola's velocity isn't overly impressive, with an average of 90 MPH on his four-seam fastball. His trick is getting ahead of hitters early in the count and then locating well with two strikes.

Nola climbs the ladder

Nola's curveball is one of his biggest weapons. His ability to keep it in the zone has led to an outstanding 6.44 K/BB ratio, good for third in the NL. Obviously, this contributes to his low WHIP, but in leagues with expanded counting categories such as OBPA, Nola becomes even more valuable.

Nola sinker

Then there's the sinker. His money pitch to be sure, Nola deploys it with two strikes on a regular basis. To unload this pitch on an 0-2 count is just unfair. It looks really easy to hit just... up... until... right.... there.

Nola slider

Nola has been fooling hitters since his days at LSU, even though his strikeout numbers were not astronomical. Many of his strikeouts don't come on swings outside the zone - actually quite the opposite. Alex Chamberlain wrote an excellent piece the other day on Nola's ability to catch hitters looking:

Aaron Nola's Sinker and the Looking Strike

Nola CWS

In case you're wondering, Nola has not just feasted on weak opponents this season. Nola threw seven scoreless innings on the road against both Washington and St. Louis earlier in the season. He also went seven innings, allowing only one ER against Milwaukee and Cincinnati twice. He has only failed to post a quality start twice in eight starts in 2016. Here is reigning MVP and fun-lover Bryce Harper not having fun and looking completely helpless against the sinker.

Nola fools Harper

Nola is for real and it's time for fantasy owners to give him his due. It may be premature to tab him as an ace already, but he is certainly pitching like one. There is no excuse for Nola to go un-owned in anything other than AL-only leagues. If there was ever a buy-low window for a starter who will put up top-notch stats, it is now with Nola. If you're already a Nola owner, don't automatically assume that swapping him for the likes of Chris Archer or Sonny Gray is a steal. Nola may continue to surprise fantasy owners, just like he keeps surprising opposing hitters.

 

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