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Poetry in Motion: The Development of Robbie Ray

The NL strikeout king next season could turn out to be a player with a 6-11 record and 4.47 ERA. (Let's just assume Clayton Kershaw is still hurt in 2017 for this exercise). In the last 30 days, basically the entire second half to this point, Arizona Diamondbacks LHP Robbie Ray has more strikeouts than all but three pitchers: Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, and Max Scherzer. Since the break, Ray is just two K shy of the NL-leading Strasburg, but I don't need to tell you how Strasburg is faring over that time since his 7.63 ERA and inability to escape the 2nd inning the other day say it all (sorry Strasburg owners - I feel ya).

For the majority of the season Ray has been a streaming option at best and has frustrated owners with his inconsistency. With an ERA that hasn't dipped below 4.00 since April 28th and a serious lack of wins, fantasy owners can't be blamed for ignoring him. While struggles may be expected from a relatively young pitcher at 24 years old, Ray is starting to show signs of maturity that may bode well for his immediate future.

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Ray's current overall ratios don't inspire much confidence. 4.47 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .341 OBP just don't cut it in any format. As a result, he is owned in 27% of Fleaflicker leagues, which means some of his strengths have gone unnoticed. Ray is fifth among all qualifying starters with a 10.89 K/9 for the season and his 161 total strikeouts rank sixth in the NL, ahead of Cy Young candidates Jake Arrieta and Johnny Cueto. Those numbers have even gone up in the past month, with a 12.24 K/9. He has a live fastball that is creeping up in velocity each season, up to 93.9 MPH in 2016. He combines that with a nasty slider to get hitters out. He is currently getting an 18.8% SwStr% on his slider, a figure that has jumped dramatically since his rookie year. Although he wasn't labeled a strikeout pitcher entering the league, his K rate has jumped each year, from 6.0 K/9 in 2014 with Detroit, to 8.4 last year in Arizona, up to 12.4 this season.

Ray K slider

That's the face I made after reading Strasburg's latest line. Yes, I'm a bitter owner.

Strikeouts alone don't make a successful pitcher in the fantasy world, but there is evidence that Ray has been a bit unlucky and pitching better than his stats suggest. His 3.40 xFIP is actually good for eighth in the NL. Ray also has a .362 BABIP which is second-highest in the majors. Other pitchers who profile similarly to Ray in this respect are high strikeout pitchers as well, including Noah Syndergaard (3rd), Jose Fernandez (8th), and David Price (10th). This is no surprise as Arizona's defense is ranked 22nd in errors made this year with 78, and 21st in fielding percentage.

His home ballpark hasn't done him any favors either. His 5.13 ERA at home is over a full run higher than away, where it's a respectable 3.80. Ray is not a fly ball pitcher, as he averages a 29.3% FB% at home. Unfortunately, his 14.9% HR/FB% ranks in the top 20 among starting pitchers. Chase Field has the second highest HR rate in the NL at 2.70. In case you are wondering, Coors Field is not first. It's actually the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati at 2.95.

Ray homer

Even if Ray kept more balls in the park, the WHIP is still problematic. Ray's 3.32 BB/9 puts him in the top 20 in MLB. (The plate's over there, Robbie.) He is turning a corner in the second half, though, with a 2.20 BB/9 in the last 30 days. With a rising strikeout rate and falling walk rate, it's easy to see why this third year pitcher might be primed for a jump in value.

Ray double Ks

Did I mention he strikes out a lot of batters?

Robbie Ray may, in fact, be the type of pitcher worth taking a chance on as a savvy waiver wire pickup down the stretch, approaching September. He could even enter the discussion as mid-rotation arm next year in fantasy drafts. While the Diamondbacks pitching staff has largely disappointed this year, Ray has the potential to bring value to fantasy owners in strikeouts alone. It doesn't look like baseball is going to abolish the Wins category any time soon (sorry, @Roto_Dubs), but that's nearly impossible to predict anyway. Starting him at home carries some risk, but you know what they say- bet on Ray away and he just might save the day. (Ed note: nobody has ever said that, ever)

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