Ideally if you're still with me heading into Week 14 you're in a prime spot as a playoff contender. Or you happen to be a fantasy masochist and would like to be reminded of what you're missing out on. Either way, Warning Signals will keep churning along during the playoff rounds with more players throwing up shaky performances as of late.
The continued theme of these late editions focus on players that could make or break your lineup in a win-or-go-home situation. However, unlike the last week or so, the guys who show up on this week's list are much closer to the "break" side of things. I'm certain that if you own anyone listed below you're just as nervous as I am entering the playoffs.
Editor's Note: New users that sign up on FantasyAces, make a $20 deposit, and enter any game will receive BOTH our full season NFL and NBA Premium Passes for free, a $119.99 value. Just email [email protected] with your new FantasyAces username - and boom, that's it! We will email you with your Premium Passes.
Heed the Warning Signs
Doug Martin - (QB, ATL)
Doug Martin has had himself a rough season to say the least. Heading into 2016, he was viewed as a top-10 back but suffered an early injury that derailed his season. Now heading into Week 14, relying on him for fantasy is a risky proposition. Since returning in Week 10, Martin has put up decent numbers, hitting double digits in three out of four appearances. In looking at the box score, it's easy to overlook the holes in his stat line. Allow me to (softly) burst your bubble.
If you've listened to anyone who's discussed the Buccaneers' recent game against San Diego, you've undoubtedly heard that Martin didn't touch the ball on the team's last three drives. It was Jacquizz Rodgers who came in as Martin was apparently dealing with some sort of ailment. Throw in two games in which Martin has been bailed out by a touchdown, and you're looking at an inconsistent fantasy player over the last four weeks.
All of this is a long way of saying don't just throw Doug Martin into your fantasy lineup out of habit. Yes, running back has been unpredictable as ever this year and yes, Doug Martin is still technically a "starting running back" but there are very view RBs who are automatic starts. If Jacquizz is going to chip away at Doug's workload, it limits the fantasy upside of this backfield considerably. Further, Martin hasn't been stellar since his return. He's been usable, sure, but if you've got some depth on your bench it's worth considering other options.
Personally, I'd be willing to roll with someone who has a more guaranteed share of touches out of the backfield like Jeremy Hill. Or someone who has been more consistent for fantasy in spite of being in a timeshare like Latavius Murray. This is another one of those situations where you have to see what else you have before making a decision. If Doug Martin is your RB2 by circumstance, you should be fine. Just don't assume he should be in your lineup regardless.
Cam Newton - (QB, CAR)
Disclaimer: Discussions regarding what Cam Newton should or shouldn't be wearing on an airplane is a topic for another article. I will spare you that nonsense.
With that little tidbit out of the way, it's time to start getting nervous about Cam Newton if you weren't already. Cam has certainly had big games this season but he's also thrown up a couple of duds as well. Recently, he's had three lackluster outings by his own standards. He hasn't topped 19 fantasy points in standard scoring and his rushing numbers have all but evaporated. It's safe to say that this has been a down year for Newton overall.
Even in a disappointing season, I find it extremely difficult to justify benching Cam Newton. I'd like to compare it to owning DeAndre Hopkins this year. Over the last two weeks I mentioned that if you've been winning with Hopkins in your lineup there's no reason to pull him now. You've been doing it in spite of him, not because of him. Anything he does from here on out is icing on the cake as far as breakout games go. The same can be said for Cam Newton.
You'd have to be stacked at QB in order for it to be worth taking him out of your lineup. Which, admittedly, is a lot more likely for a quarterback than it is a receiver. It's certainly possible you managed to scoop up Dak Prescott or Matt Ryan off waivers back in weeks three or four. For most owners, though, Cam Newton will be the best they can do at the position and that's ok. He's not going to kill your playoff hopes, there's just a chance he might not be the reason you win. I'd venture to guess that your team hit on some other studs along the way and that's the reason you're still competing in Week 14. Rolling with Cam here on out is fine as long as you've tempered your expectations by now.
Allen Robinson - (WR, JAX)
Talk about a fall from grace huh? Allen Robinson had an outstanding 2015 campaign and was a unanimous top-10 wide receiver heading into 2016. Fast forward to December and anyone who owns him is kicking themselves. There was a short span where it looked like A-Rob was starting to turn it round with strong back-to-back outings in weeks nine and ten. Unfortunately, that was just a case of being in the right place at the right time as Robinson has plummeted once again.
Yes, yes, I know, it's not Allen Robinson's fault he's had a terrible year. Blake Bortles is not a good real-life NFL quarterback, I'm aware. The point is Robinson has suffered in fantasy regardless of the reason. His last three outings have been dreadful, not exceeding 31 yards over that span with one touchdown. Bortles has managed to turn his number one receiver into a touchdown dependent pass-catcher for fantasy purposes. That's the best you can hope for at this point and that is not something your playoff hopes need to be hitched to.
Not only would I have to be extremely desperate to start Robinson in the fantasy playoffs but I'd also have to be loaded at my other positions to make up for a potential dud. Why take an unnecessary risk on a player who is at best a low-end WR3 when you don't have to? Purely from a fantasy perspective, what is the difference between Robinson and Tyreek Hill at this point? Or Taylor Gabriel? If those are the names you have to decide between, sure, use the guy you've seen do it before in Robinson. On the flip side, I would much prefer players who have shown a little more consistency this season like Rishard Matthews, Steve Smith, and even Kenny Britt. It's been a rough go for A-Rob this year and I'm sorry to say you can't depend on him for your playoff dreams.
Martellus Bennett - (TE, NE)
The loss of Rob Gronkowski should have been met with superb outings from fellow tight end Martellus Bennett. Instead, Bennett has had to deal with injuries of his own and has struggled to take advantage of Gronk's absence. In New England's most recent outing against the Rams, Bennett had just two receptions for four yards. He's not exactly setting the world on fire without Gronk on the field.
The "problem" with Martellus Bennett (and I use that word loosely) is that he plays the tight end position. By that I mean there are so few dependable TEs who can put up good numbers on a week-to-week basis that finding a dependable option is a blessing. Just take a look at the scoring leaders at the position and tell me how far down the list you get before you're willing to make Bennett your guy. Delanie Walker, Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham, Travis Kelce, Jordan Reed...do you really prefer Cameron Brate over Martellus Bennet? It's justified, sure, but there's no question Bennett is in the stronger offense with a clearer path to fantasy goodness.
I've said this about plenty of tight ends in the past and I'll say it again: it's such an inconsistent position that anyone you start has the potential to disappoint you. There are really only five guys you can count on consistently and they too could throw up a clunker every once in a while. I have no issue continuing to start Martellus Bennett whatsoever. If anything, there's an argument to be made that his worst days are behind him. When healthy, he has the potential to score you top-three numbers at the position any given week now that Gronk is out of the picture.
Updates From Last Week
Matt Ryan - (QB, ATL)
So the expected bounce back spot for Matt Ryan didn't occur in Week 13 but to be perfectly honest with you it was a bizarre week for QBs in general. Joe Flacco of all people was tied for first among quarterbacks. Brock Osweiller cracked the top-10 by outscoring Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees had single digit fantasy points for the first time since Week 17 of 2010. Matt Ryan gets another pass here purely based on circumstance. You can safely throw Week 13 out the window and look forward to this Sunday's game against the Rams for a turnaround.
Jeremy Hill - (RB, CIN)
It wasn't pretty but Jeremy Hill managed to find the endzone in a blowout win against Philadelphia, bailing you out for fantasy purposes. For as much as I've championed for Hill as a fantasy asset even I have to admit that his game is far from graceful. Still, with a matchup against Cleveland on deck, Hill should be locked into your lineup this week.
Greg Olsen - (TE, CAR)
Let's just call a spade a spade here and state the obvious; the Carolina Panthers got smoked in Week 13. No one had a strong fantasy day so I'm sure even the Panthers themselves are throwing out the game film and looking ahead to their next game against San Diego. My analysis on Greg Olsen stands firm in that tight end is too shaky to be disappointed. It can always be far worse.
Eric Ebron - (TE, DET)
In a game that saw Marvin Jones sit out with an injury, Eric Ebron should have been more involved in the passing game. Instead, his scoring drought continues as he hasn't found pay-dirt since all the way back in week one. I'm sure you can find a better tight end streamer for Week 14, especially with the likes of Ladarius Green and C.J. Fiedorowicz playing well as of late. That being said, using Ebron wouldn't necessarily scare me, I just think there are better options out there.