3 months agoSitting in the 33rd spot on the FedEx Cup points list, Corey Conners needs a bounce-back week at Castle Pines to make the Tour Championship for a fourth consecutive year. He failed to make a move in Memphis due to poor ball striking and not keeping big numbers off the scorecard, and at a place as long and difficult as what he will face on Thursday, more of the same is a strong possibility. The Canadian ranks well from 125 to 175 yards (13th from 125-150 and 10th from 150-175), but the distances outside of that get a little more worrisome. Given the plethora of unknowns about this venue, it's difficult to judge where most of the player's approach shots will come from. Additionally, his season-long effort around the greens mixed with his lackluster play off the tee in three of his last four starts makes pulling the trigger on him difficult.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoIt was another close call in a string of narrow misses for Sam Burns over the last two and a half months. The 28-year-old seems to lack the firepower needed to take hold of a lead in the final round as his 134th ranking in round four scoring average (71.00) would suggest. That being said, he still makes for a worthy addition to DFS lineups for what he has done in the other three rounds and amassing nearly 300 total birdies on the year. His 4.32 birdie average is the fourth-best on tour this season, coupled with an acceptable 14.90% bogey avoidance (ranked 68th on tour) is exactly the recipe needed at a venue no one in this field has likely seen much of. If he can get acclimated to the inherent ball flight difference of Colorado versus Memphis, TN, he could be a strong play again this week; just be mindful that ownership will likely be high.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoSince his narrow miss at the Scottish Open a month ago, Collin Morikawa hasn't been able to align the facets of his game together. A good week with the irons has been met with bad putting and chipping; and vice versa. Last week in Memphis, the world no. seven lost nearly six shots on approach over the final three rounds. That can't happen at a place like Castle Pines, which carries a normal course rating of 79.1 without the difficult conditions of a PGA Tour setup. Hopefully, last week was an anomaly given how well he has struck the ball as of late, averaging +1.11 strokes gained on approach since the PGA Championship in May. Priced at $11,900 on FanDuel, there is a little more risk here than most would like, but could pay off in a big way if the stars align.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
3 months agoAnother tournament, and another chance to see if Scottie Scheffler will finish in the top five or pick up his eighth victory of the season; there seemingly aren't many other outcomes. Even with a lackluster putting performance on Saturday in Memphis, where he lost -1.55 strokes on the greens, the best player in the world had a chance to chase down Matsuyama in the final round and had a legitimate chance given how things unfolded. Sure, his inconsistency on the greens, at times, ultimately holds him back, but at a place like Castle Pines that is virtually unknown to the current PGA Tour roster, figuring out these greens will be a chore for everyone. His symbiotic relationship with his caddy, Ted Scott, will be his biggest strength in adjusting to the Colorado climate, and the unwavering ball striking makes him the undoubted front-runner again this week.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
3 months agoNick Dunlap is only 20 years old. The American golfer has two career wins including one on the PGA Tour this year at The American Express. He may be a bit volatile with results which is why he is 48th in FedEx Cup points. However, Dunlap got to Castle Pines via a Top 5 finish at Memphis last week. What is crazier is that Dunlap missed the cut in three of the previous four events he entered. Following up results has been a challenge in 2024 for Dunlap but he ranks 11th on tour with 4.25 birdies per round. Dunlap did not expect to be here but with the PGA this year, hey, one never knows.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
3 months agoKeegan Bradley almost did not make it to The BMW Championship this week. Bradley ranks 50th in FedEx Cup points and needs a big result this week at Castle Pines. Since finishing tied for second at the Charles Schwab Challenge, Bradley has not ended up inside the Top 20 once. That is a span of seven tournaments. The American golfer behind a Saturday 74 ended up over par last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Bradley does waste too many putts and that is a concern. He averages 29.14 putts per round which ranks 116th on tour. He will have to improve on that and his 70.35 scoring average (116th) if Bradley wants to make it to Atlanta.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
3 months agoSepp Straka has four top-10 finishes in 2024. The Austrian golfer ranks 24th in points for the FedEx Cup series. After this week, only the top 30 make it to The Tour Championship. It will be intriguing to see how Straka approaches the course at Castle Pines. Since consecutive top-five results at The Memorial and The Players Championships, Straka has slid a little backward. He has zero top-20 finishes and ended up tied for 61st at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week. Straka never got going and wound up over par for the tournament. If he starts off poorly again on Thursday, Straka may not get to Atlanta.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
3 months agoBrian Harman comes into the BMW Championship ranked 29th in FedEx Cup Points. The American golfer has three Top 10 results this season but no wins on the PGA Tour. His final round at The Open Championship left much to be desired. Harman fired a 77. Then, the results got worse. Two finishes outside the Top 40 have Harman in danger of not making The Tour Championship. Only the Top 30 make it and Harman will need to make quite a few birdies this week at Castle Pines. He did nearly win The Sentry in such a championship field like scenario in January (Tied for second). The question is can Harman improve on his accuracy with the greens. 65.47% will not cut it this time around.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
3 months agoTaylor Pendrith comes into the BMW Championship ranked 27th in the FedEx Cup Points. The Canadian golfer netted a Top 5 at the 3M Open but was just outside the Top 20 at the first playoff event last week. Heading into the second playoff event, Pendrith likely needs a better finish to secure a spot in The Tour Championship. Pendrith averages 310.8 yards a drive and ranks 12th in strokes gained to putting. This could be a recipe for success given shorter second shots should be on the menu for Pendrith. Accuracy will be vital but a concern is those putts per final round which ranks 72nd. It really is how a golfer finishes. Look at what happened to Tom Kim last week.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
3 months agoDenny McCarthy heads into the BMW Championship potentially needing another top-10 result. He finished ninth at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week. McCarthy bounced back after a Saturday 72 to post a Sunday 68. The American golfer ranks 30th in points, which means he is on the proverbial bubble. When it comes to Castle Pines in Denver, one of the first things is the ball carries a little further in the elevation. McCarthy will get a boost from his average drive of 290.5 yards. He ranks third in putting in terms of strokes gained, and McCarthy simply has to drain enough putts to advance. The Tour Championship is within reach for the golfer this week.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
3 months agoBen Griffin tied for seventh place at the Wyndham Championship last week, marking a strong comeback after missing the cut in his previous two tournaments. This week, he is focusing on preparing for the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind. In 2023, he finished T24 and is aiming to perform even better this time. It's worth noting that Griffin ranks in the 84th percentile in greens in regulation percentage from approach shots 150-200 yards in the fairway over the past 12 months, which is significant because over 42% of approach shots at last year's FedEx St. Jude Championship came from this distance. Despite some inconsistency this year, Griffin is worth consideration for DFS lineups this week.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
3 months agoMaverick McNealy finished T45 at last week's Wyndham Championship and seems to have improved after missing the cut in back-to-back events last month. McNealy will be focusing on preparing for the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind this week, where he finished T31 in 2022. One noteworthy point is that McNealy ranks in the 13th percentile in greens in regulation percentage on approach shots from 150-200 yards in the fairways, and over 42% of his approach shots came from this distance at last year's FedEx St. Jude Championship. McNealy has been performing well, but there is some risk involved in including him in DFS lineups this week.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
3 months agoAdam Scott is back in action this week at TPC Southwind for the FedEx St. Jude Championship, following his T10 finish at The Open Championship last month. Scott has achieved back-to-back top-10 finishes and aims to maintain his momentum. In 2022, he finished tied for fifth at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Notably, last year's championship saw over 42% of approach shots coming from 150-200 yards. In the past 12 months, Scott ranks in the 57th percentile in greens in regulation on approach shots from this distance in the fairway. Given Scott's recent form and track record at TPC Southwind, he is a strong contender for DFS lineups this week.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
3 months agoTwo weeks ago, Hideki Matsuyama won the Bronze Medal at the Olympics in Paris, France. Now, he is focusing on preparing for the FedEx St. Jude Championship, where he finished T16 last year at TPC Southwind. It's worth noting that at last year's FedEx St. Jude Championship, more than 42% of approach shots were made from 150-200 yards. Over the past 12 months, Matsuyama has ranked in the 90th percentile in greens in regulation percentage from approach shots at this distance while in the fairway. Although he missed his first cut of the 2024 season last month, he is still worth considering for DFS lineups for this week's event.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
3 months agoAaron Rai secured his first PGA Tour victory last week at the Wyndham Championship. While Rai has been performing well this year, he has not been able to clinch a win until now. This week, he will prepare for the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind. In previous years, Rai finished T49 in 2023 and T51 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He is entering the tournament with an impressive streak of making the cut in 11 straight tournaments. It's worth noting that in the past 12 months, Rai ranks in the 89th percentile for greens in regulation percentage on approach shots from 150-200 yards in the fairway. This is significant because last year's FedEx St. Jude Championship saw over 42% of approach shots being made from this distance. With Rai's recent win and consistent performance throughout the season, it may be worthwhile to consider him for DFS lineups this week.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
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