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Mitch Keller 2024 Fantasy Baseball Outlook: Despite Second Half Struggles, Year-Over-Year Trends Point To ADP Outperformance In ‘24
1 year agoPittsburgh Pirates pitcher Mitch Keller was named the Opening Day starter for 2023 and rewarded the club with an excellent first half, going 9-4 with a 3.31 ERA (3.32 FIP), 1.12 WHIP, and a 26.7% K% on the way to his first-ever All-Star selection. The second half wasn't nearly as stellar, going 4-5 while posting a 5.59 ERA (4.52 FIP), 1.44 WHIP, and 23.8% K%. The former second-round pick had yet to reach 159 IP but reached 117 IP in the first half alone, finishing with 194 1/3 IP. Perhaps fatigue was the problem - hopefully not injury. Whichever was the cause of the subpar second half, the HR ball was the resultant effect. He had a 0.85 HR/9 and 10.5% HR/FB in the first half but a 1.63 HR/9 and 17.5% HR/FB in the second half. Keller's FGDC projections expect him to take a bit of a step back in 2024, with an 11-12 record to go along with a 4.21 ERA (4.18 FIP), 1.33 WHIP, 13.6% K-BB%, and 180 K in 192 IP. NFBC ADP shows the righty going late at pick 164, but RotoBaller has a more positive outlook with a ranking of 142. Assuming health, he's got optimistic year-over-year trends since 2022 and could easily outperform the current ADP.
