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Mitch Keller 2024 Fantasy Baseball Outlook: Despite Second Half Struggles, Year-Over-Year Trends Point To ADP Outperformance In ‘24
11 months agoPittsburgh Pirates pitcher Mitch Keller was named the Opening Day starter for 2023 and rewarded the club with an excellent first half, going 9-4 with a 3.31 ERA (3.32 FIP), 1.12 WHIP, and a 26.7% K% on the way to his first-ever All-Star selection. The second half wasn't nearly as stellar, going 4-5 while posting a 5.59 ERA (4.52 FIP), 1.44 WHIP, and 23.8% K%. The former second-round pick had yet to reach 159 IP but reached 117 IP in the first half alone, finishing with 194 1/3 IP. Perhaps fatigue was the problem - hopefully not injury. Whichever was the cause of the subpar second half, the HR ball was the resultant effect. He had a 0.85 HR/9 and 10.5% HR/FB in the first half but a 1.63 HR/9 and 17.5% HR/FB in the second half. Keller's FGDC projections expect him to take a bit of a step back in 2024, with an 11-12 record to go along with a 4.21 ERA (4.18 FIP), 1.33 WHIP, 13.6% K-BB%, and 180 K in 192 IP. NFBC ADP shows the righty going late at pick 164, but RotoBaller has a more positive outlook with a ranking of 142. Assuming health, he's got optimistic year-over-year trends since 2022 and could easily outperform the current ADP.
