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Miles Sanders 2022 Outlook: Expect Positive Touchdown Regression
3 years agoPhiladelphia Eagles running back Miles Sanders failed to score a single touchdown in 2021, despite averaging 14.2 touches per game while healthy. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts, Boston Scott, Jordan Howard, and Kenneth Gainwell combined for 25 rushing TDs, with 15 of those 25 TDs coming in games featuring Sanders. In fact, 10 of the 15 vultured TDs came from his QB, Jalen Hurts. Hurts' rushing ability isn't going anywhere, but his 7.2% rushing TD rate from last season is likely unrepeatable. This is especially apparent compared to other QBs, such as Lamar Jackson's career rushing TD rate of 3.4%. Next season, I'd expect that Hurts only vultures 5-6 rushing TDs. Furthermore, in 2021, the Eagles were 1st in the NFL in rushing yards and T-13th in offensive TDs. Following the team's recent addition of star WR AJ Brown, I expect them to jump into the top-10 in TDs while maintaining a top-3 rushing volume offense. Sanders' current ADP of RB34 is a steal when considering the projections of a higher-scoring, run-heavy offense and Jalen Hurts rushing TD regression. Furthermore, just two seasons ago, Sanders was being drafted as a top-15 RB in all formats, with the same competition he has now. Entering his contract year at just 25 years old, Sanders has 10 touchdown upside and the potential to finish as a fantasy RB1 in 2022.
