1 month agoAre you feeling lucky? The best starter by skills of the last decade, Texas Rangers right-hander Jacob deGrom has managed a grand total of 35 starts and 197 1/3 innings since 2021. He was still elite when pitching—2.01 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 14 K/9, 39% K-BB% over that time—it just didn't happen enough, given an array of arm troubles. The exciting thing for 2025 is that deGrom has fully recovered from his second Tommy John surgery, and we even saw him make three brief starts at the end of 2024 for the Rangers. He was good, if not quite as dominant over those 10 1/3 innings, posting a 1.69 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 29.5% K-BB%. Two metrics stand out. deGrom's 14% swinging strike rate was his lowest since 2017, and his fastball velocity was down almost two MPH (97.3) compared to 2021 (99.2). You'd be right to wonder if he's diminished following all the arm issues, although it's also possible he was taking it easy as he acclimated to pitching again for the first time in almost 17 months. According to the auction calculator, Steamer projects some decline from his peak but still has =deGrom as the third most valuable starter. The former New York Met ace is projected to throw 152 innings with a 2.84 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and a 12.19 K/BB. Assume no more than 140-150 innings, and be pleasantly surprised if we get more. Anything over 100 innings will likely make deGrom a top-15 starter. As for his health, we tend to think this is the healthiest he's been in years, but given his recent history and optimal velocity, it's impossible to give deGrom any health grade above F. deGrom is currently going 40th overall in NFBC leagues; which is a gamble with that high of a pick considering the injury risk.--Michael Cecchini - RotoBaller